Azerbaijan fully re-aligned itself towards Turkey, Russia's rival in what is now three conflict zones.
I disagree wholeheartedly. When Azerbaijan accidentally shot down a Russian helicopter, they immediately apologized to Russia, the families, and made immediate compensation payments to said families. That's not to say that the Turks are entirely happy with what the Russians did during this war, but on the whole Russia comes out better.
Russia promised to not intervene in the war for the contested territory, declaring that it did not recognize the region as Armenian space. It only intervened when Turkey pressed to hard and when weapons were fired at Armenia proper. And while the Azerbaijani probably did not appreciate that, they probably did appreciate that Russia went no further. And in the aftermath of the war, Azerbaijan is going to feel gracious in victory.
The fact that Russia has peace troops in the region shows that both powers trust Russia to act as the middleman between the two.
Armenian government is about to be replaced by another one - one which would blame Russia for everything. If nothing else, because blaming Russia is easier than blaming themselves. Dolchstoß 4life!
No, the last government made the colossal mistake of alienating Russia. And Russia has made it very, very clear on exactly what that wins them; loss of territory and prestige. And in some cases, their lives. No, the next government will entirely blame the last government for its incompetence and cowardice. Doing otherwise will not weaken Russia's hand, it will strengthen it. Because no western power is either willing or able to push into the region to help them.
Azerbaijan has shown it's entirely willing to attack their homeland. If pressed, they might even invade.
Turkey is backing Azerbaijan.
Iran can only do so much without causing a revolution on their northern border and they're already primarily engaged on their western front with Saudi Arabia. Atop of that, Iran's economy is in shambles between Wuhan and US sanctions.
Russia is Armenia's only option left. Armenia is further in Russian hands than when it started this war.
Two thousand Russian troops are going to be deployed in the middle of hostile territory in a completely indefensible position.
The region is actually pretty well suited to defensive fighting. The real problem is getting troops and supplies INTO the region. Nor is this hostile territory. The ethnic Armenians know that the only thing stopping Azerbaijan from taking its revenge on Armenian purges is the Russians. And the Azerbaijanis may not prefer it, but Armenia would never agree to Turkey or Iran doing it and Azerbaijan has good relations with the Russians--who in the end, did not back Armenia for the contested territory. I would argue that the Russians come out looking the best in all of this, with their strategic hold on Armenia now being established as complete.
Because that didn't totally fail in 1989, back when the entire region was formally part of the same country. Transport links (land or air) require cooperation of Armenia, Azerbaijan or Georgia. If things go south, Russian peacekeepers can't be adequately reinforced, supplied or evacuated.
A total victory indeed.
The only power capable of ejecting Russia out of the region would be Turkey. Make no mistake, this was a victory for Turkey too. But right now Turkey is not too interested in a conflict with Russia. More so, Turkey won in this too. Long term more so than Russia, but short term is probably going to be the focus of their government; Azerbaijan retook lost territory, Armenia was humiliated on the world stage, the Russians are committed to one more strategic space (one that doesn't even threaten Turk interests, but rather supports it at the moment), and Turkey's leadership gets a large boost in popularity for having aided their distant kin and allies.
The really big losers are actually Armenia and Iran.
For what it is worth the Russian peacekeepers will defend Stepankert and the core of Nagorno-Karabakh. It’s better than a total defeat and ethnic cleansing and a win for Putin since it means he gets troops on both Armenian and Azeri soil and can thus manage the situation however he wants.
I wouldn't call it a total Russian win, but it's actually the best result that Putin could have expected. Keeping the previous status quo would have been better, but this is the second best thing. It does give the advantage of making Russia appeal like a more honest dealer in the eyes of Azerbaijan, Armenia as I've said has no choice but to move closer to Russia.
Yup, seems like in the end the Armenia-Azerbaijan war has resulted in a total Russian victory.
Eh, not total victory. But the best possible scenario for Russia played out. The real casualty for Russia though, I think, is that they had to punish Turkey. Turkey could not have been too happy with that. Still, Turkey might be happy enough with the outcome and the internal support this will grant the government that they might be willing to set it aside.
For me, Turkey, Russia, and Azerbaijan are all winners here, even if it didn't go exactly as they wanted it to go.
And Armenai and Iran are the losers.