My initial thoughts going in -
Scenario 1 - 1896
Best-case - Franz-Ferdinand wank. F-F reforms the empire, and builds good relations with Russia (while maintaining excellent relations with Wilhelm) through agreements in 1897 and 1903 to keep the Balkans, "on ice". In 1903, this includes acting, with Russian permission, against the Serbian regicides, since its is in "his", western, "half" of the Balkans (Romania and Bulgaria being the Russian "half"). He cold-shoulders the Italians in the Triple Alliance re-negotiations of 1903, but at the same time, encourages the Willy-Nicky correspondence, which broadens into the Willy-Nicky-Franky letters, and when Nicky looks for a Bjork-like alliance with Germany and Austria-Hungary over the Far East, Franky and Willy with Franky's encouragement goes for it. This leaves France as frustrated, non-exclusive, fourth ally.
Worst-case - Franz-Ferdinand tries to reform the empire and uses leverage during Ausgleich negotiations in 1897 to do it. The Hungarians rebel, and F-F rallies counter-revolutionary forces of other groups. The Hungarians are on the path to losing, but fighting lasts long enough to be called a civil war, and for Romania, Serbia, and Italy to intervene over border areas, and then the Germans to intervene on behalf of F-F, and then Russia and France to intervene to counter Germany. We have an early WWI with the Triple Alliance and CP's starting off disorganized and divided against themselves, but at least the British are not intervening on the Franco-Russian side. But things look bleak for the Austro-German side to come out of the conflict with everything it had at the beginning.
Scenario 2 - 1906
Best-case Franz-Ferdinand wank. F-F reforms the empire, and builds good relations with Russia (while maintaining excellent relations with Wilhelm). The Young Turk revolution of 1908 forces him to resolve the status of Bosnia, ultimately through annexation, but the personal correspondence he establishes with Nicholas via Wilhelm helps F-F and Nicholas keep better control over Aehrenthal and Isvolski handle their bargaining and announcements of moves and promises with more tact and consistency, allowing negative publicity to be handled without ultimatums and bullying. F-F's reforms also remove Magyar fiscal obstruction to decent military and other public investments.
Worst-case - Franz-Ferdinand tries to reform the empire and uses leverage during Ausgleich negotiations in 1907 to do it. The Hungarians rebel, and F-F rallies counter-revolutionary forces of other groups. The Hungarians are on the path to losing, but fighting lasts long enough to be called a civil war, and for Romania, Serbia, and Italy to intervene over border areas, and then the Germans to intervene on behalf of F-F, and then Russia and France to intervene to counter Germany. We have an early WWI with the Triple Alliance and CP's starting off disorganized and divided against themselves, and worse, the British, having recently concluded a convention with Russia, are taking a pro-Franco-Russian stance, threatening to poach German colonies or Copenhagen the German fleet. Things look bleak for the Austro-German side to come out of the conflict with everything it had at the beginning.
Scenario 3 - 1911
Best-case Franz-Ferdinand wank. F-F reforms the empire, and strives to conciliate Russia and support the Balkan status quo. It's not easy because of where things were left off with the Bosnian crisis. His domestic pro-Slavism may be seen as a positive however in Russia. The country really testing his nerves, and the nerves of his close friend Conrad Hotzendorff, however, is Italy, a so-called "ally". Italy is insisting on going to war with the Ottomans, even at risk of destabilizing the Balkans, despite Austrian mediation proposals that would give Italy practical control over Tripoli under Ottoman suzerainty. F-F, on taking the throne and command of state affairs, gets quite direct with the Italians that the mediation proposal is the best deal he can support for Rome, and he can't support an Italian war on Turkey. By this point, the Italian government is too far committed to its warlike course to back-down and issues its ultimatum, declaration, and attack in September.
F-F and Hotzendorff are livid about Italian recklessness. F-F agrees to Conrad's previously stated advocacy for war to crush Italy, and launches several weeks preparation to launch an ultimatum, DoW, and attack over the border before the mountain passes freeze .
Austria attacks Italy in late October or early November, citing as its excuse Italy's refusal to cease its unprovoked aggression against Turkey. Fighting Italy is something that almost all nationalities in the Austrian empire can agree on. Austria's attacks into Venezia make it impossible for Italy to reinforce Tripoli, and Austria soon forms an alliance and joint Army and Navy planning with the Ottomans. This deters and contains any potential aggression by Armies and Navies of the Balkan states.
When the war finally ends in 1912, Austria wins in the settlement a restoration of the Ottoman status quo, an indemnity from the Italians, a demilitarized zone in Lombardy and Venezia, and, most cruelly, the hand-over of Italy's colonial trophies, Somalia, which goes to Austria, and Eritrea, which is split between Austria and Abyssinia, which joins the Austro-Ottoman side by 1912.
Worst-case - Franz-Ferdinand tries to reform the empire strives to conciliate the Russians but is confronted immediately with the Italo-Ottoman crisis upon taking the throne. Despite F-F's mediation and warnings, the Italians go to war in September. F-F and Conrad resolve on war against Italy. Despite conciliatory moves towards Russia, Nicholas is too weak to resist Russian ministers who insist that Russia must mobilize and cannot let Austria crush Italy, and must use this opportunity to humiliate Austria, win a new ally, and gain revenge for the Bosnia crisis. The French, seeing a similar opportunity, and unlike in the Morocco instance earlier in the year, seeing a crisis where Russia has skin in the game, do nothing to discourage Russian mobilization.
The Austrian attack on Italy is followed by Russian mobilization, then German mobilization, then French, then German attack on Belgium and France, then Russian attack on Germany and Austria (and the Ottomans), then British declaration of war on Germany.