raharris1973
Well-known member
We all know the following to be true:
France was Germany's forever enemy after 1871
Germany's Austro-Hungarian ally was a liability not an asset
Germany need to be allied with Britain or Russia, the only two powers powerful enough, other than France, to be worth having as main allies
Britain isn't reliable, it's flighty, perfidious:
-It doesn't like to pre-commit
-You can't count on it to reciprocate, it may turn on you if it thinks you're too powerful
-Or it may seek ties only on its own terms, drop your interests in a side deal
After the Crimean War, Austria and Russia really can't get along durably
So adding this all up, the second German Empire has to make positive relations with Russia its number one priority for security against a two front war happening. It's the biggest deterrent against France starting a war, and the biggest guarantee Germany would win any war that happens in Europe if deterrence fails.
So what does it have to cost Germany? It's hard to say "no" to Russia's geopolitical wants and desires and keep its friendship.
What does Berlin have to concede in Europe (to have it stay friendly, and not make a threatening alliance with France):
a) Russian expansion into any Ottoman territory
b) Russian expansion into any Ottoman or Balkan territory southeast of Austria-Hungary
c) Russian expansion into Ottoman, Balkan, or Habsburg territory east of Vienna
d) Carte blanche to reorganize Europe east of Vienna guarantees nothing from Russia
I think Germany could probably live with a) or b) without much discomfort if that's where things stop in Europe. c) is quite a bit more uncomfortable, and requires Germany to be ready to absorb German Catholics (and a Russian puppet Bohemia or Hungary is no fun either). d) Means all the accommodation is for nothing and was probably not the right idea in the first place and that the most sensible thing to do was when Tsar Alexander was sounding out about a war on Turkey in the 1870s Berlin and the other powers should have said 'hell no, ain't nobody changing' no borders 'round here'.
France was Germany's forever enemy after 1871
Germany's Austro-Hungarian ally was a liability not an asset
Germany need to be allied with Britain or Russia, the only two powers powerful enough, other than France, to be worth having as main allies
Britain isn't reliable, it's flighty, perfidious:
-It doesn't like to pre-commit
-You can't count on it to reciprocate, it may turn on you if it thinks you're too powerful
-Or it may seek ties only on its own terms, drop your interests in a side deal
After the Crimean War, Austria and Russia really can't get along durably
So adding this all up, the second German Empire has to make positive relations with Russia its number one priority for security against a two front war happening. It's the biggest deterrent against France starting a war, and the biggest guarantee Germany would win any war that happens in Europe if deterrence fails.
So what does it have to cost Germany? It's hard to say "no" to Russia's geopolitical wants and desires and keep its friendship.
What does Berlin have to concede in Europe (to have it stay friendly, and not make a threatening alliance with France):
a) Russian expansion into any Ottoman territory
b) Russian expansion into any Ottoman or Balkan territory southeast of Austria-Hungary
c) Russian expansion into Ottoman, Balkan, or Habsburg territory east of Vienna
d) Carte blanche to reorganize Europe east of Vienna guarantees nothing from Russia
I think Germany could probably live with a) or b) without much discomfort if that's where things stop in Europe. c) is quite a bit more uncomfortable, and requires Germany to be ready to absorb German Catholics (and a Russian puppet Bohemia or Hungary is no fun either). d) Means all the accommodation is for nothing and was probably not the right idea in the first place and that the most sensible thing to do was when Tsar Alexander was sounding out about a war on Turkey in the 1870s Berlin and the other powers should have said 'hell no, ain't nobody changing' no borders 'round here'.