raharris1973
Well-known member
On May 29th, 1917, the entire territory occupied by Provisional Government Russia, is ISOT'ed back to May 29th, 1905, right at the conclusion of the Battle of Tsushima.
The territory occupied by the Central Powers at that time, principally Poland and Lithuania, does not go back.
Areas outside of Russia where Russian troops occupied, like parts of Turkey, Persia, Mongolia and the Chinese Eastern Railway Zone of Manchuria, and the Russian soldiers there, also do not go back in time back with Provisional Government Russia.
What happens to Russia, and to the world, in this scenario?
In Russia, Prince Georgy Lvov is Prime Minister, the Tsar is internal exile, Kerensky is in the Cabinet as War Minister, Lenin is in Petrograd and has published his "April Theses" and Soviets controlled by coalitions of Socialist parties have at least as much power throughout Russia as the Provisional Government does.
Good news for Russia - The War is Over, for now. Although they lost their western territory, at least it, and the 1917 German Army occupying it, did not come back.
Poland, Lithuania and Courland are their 1905 Russian versions.
But there are all sorts of internal constitutional, social, national and economic questions to answer.
````````````What systems of government will Russia settle into over the next few decades?''''''
Then there is the rest of Europe, and the rest of the world.
How do the Germans, Austrians, French, British, Ottomans, Persians, Chinese and Japanese react?
Might Germany perceive Russia as less stable than OTL 1905 rebellion-wracked Russia? If so, will it try to press its advantage against France?
An important side-effect for the USA and other countries of immigration (Argentina,Australia, Palestine, etc.) is that a big portion immigration of Russians (mainly Jews and Ukrainians) that occurred from 1905 to 1914 never occurs.
Well it is a republic, but what kind? How capitalist or how socialist? A highly representative democratic republic, or a military or strongman regime that just calls itself a Republic? Are peaceful transfers of power the exception, or the rule? Does Russia remain as committed as it was in OTL to the French alliance and its Balkan "interests". Is this Russia inclined to make an Entente with Britain, and vice versa, or not? Does this Russia give a crap about Bosnia in 1905 or a few years down the line?
Post by Alex Milman
As for the future, taking into an account that you are not providing any details in your scenario, anything is possible.
Well I think the details are more fleshed out and apparent. And I will assume that with Mukden and Tsushima lost, and the 1905 war being only a memory for 1917 Russians, that Russo-Japanese peace terms will be hashed out mainly along OTL's lines fairly quickly.
There are a variety of short-term basic questions to answer:
How long is Prince Lvov Prime Minister?
Who follows him as Prime Minister?
When is the Constituent Assembly scheduled for?
Who wins the elections for it and what kind of constitution is adopted?
Is there a land reform/land redistribution program?
Will politics operate entirely in the constitutional and politicking spheres, or will divisions get so severe that factions arm up and fight a civil war?
Outside Russia, what do the other powers think of the sudden change? Is Russia more or less debilitated internationally in 1905-1908 compared to OTL? Do the Germans or Austrians think Russia is immobilized and they can try to make more ambitious moves against potential opponents like France (for the Germans) or Serbia (for Austria)?
Getting back to the constitutional and political evolution of this alternate Russia, I will review some of the timeline of events of the Provisional Republic and early Soviet regime in 1917 and 1918.
February Revolution - pre-PoD
May 29-POD day - Prince Lvov is Premier, Kerensky is in Cabinet, Russia has not yet formally declared a republic.
So in the ATL, everything after this is subject to change, but for comparison purposes, here is what happened:
July- PG proclaims Russia a Republic
July 1 - the Kerensky Offensive- not relevant in this scenario and definitely not happening
July Days -
July 21 Kerensky becomes premier
November 7th - Boleshevik coup
November 25th - Constituent Assembly elections- held on the date set by the PG
---Here's my knowledge gap - when did the PG set November 25th as the date, and why?
Had it been scheduled for earlier and postponed?
Did the war delay it, ie, in the ATL where they escape WWI, would the PG schedule it and hold it faster.
Obviously, the PG ultimately set it for a date having to assume the war would not be over.
Constituent Assembly election results - (obviously there's a lot of potential for different results in the ATL)
In OTL, the results were something like 80 to 85% socialist of one type or another. Was there voter suppression of likely reactionary or bourgeois voters, or were the grassroots support of the liberal parties no more than 8%, as it seems to show.
Party Votes [15] %
Socialist Revolutionaries (SRs) 17,943,000 40.4%
Bolsheviks 10,661,000 24.0%
Ukrainian SRs 3,433.000 7.7%
Constitutional Democrats ("Kadets") 2,088,000 4.7%
Mensheviks 1,144.000 2.6%
Other Russian Liberal Parties 1,261,000 2.8%
Georgian Menshevik Party 662,000 1.5%
Musavat (Azerbaidžan) 616,000 1.4%
Dashnaktsutiun (Armenia) 560,000 1.3%
Left SRs 451,000 1.0%
Other Socialists 401,000 0.9%
Alash Orda (Kazakstan) 407,000 0.9%
Other National Minority Parties 407,000 0.9%
Total (counted votes) 40,034,000 90%
Unaccounted 4,543,000 10%
Total 44,577,000 100%
18-19 January - Constituent Assembly meets
The territory occupied by the Central Powers at that time, principally Poland and Lithuania, does not go back.
Areas outside of Russia where Russian troops occupied, like parts of Turkey, Persia, Mongolia and the Chinese Eastern Railway Zone of Manchuria, and the Russian soldiers there, also do not go back in time back with Provisional Government Russia.
What happens to Russia, and to the world, in this scenario?
In Russia, Prince Georgy Lvov is Prime Minister, the Tsar is internal exile, Kerensky is in the Cabinet as War Minister, Lenin is in Petrograd and has published his "April Theses" and Soviets controlled by coalitions of Socialist parties have at least as much power throughout Russia as the Provisional Government does.
Good news for Russia - The War is Over, for now. Although they lost their western territory, at least it, and the 1917 German Army occupying it, did not come back.
Poland, Lithuania and Courland are their 1905 Russian versions.
But there are all sorts of internal constitutional, social, national and economic questions to answer.
````````````What systems of government will Russia settle into over the next few decades?''''''
Then there is the rest of Europe, and the rest of the world.
How do the Germans, Austrians, French, British, Ottomans, Persians, Chinese and Japanese react?
Might Germany perceive Russia as less stable than OTL 1905 rebellion-wracked Russia? If so, will it try to press its advantage against France?
An important side-effect for the USA and other countries of immigration (Argentina,Australia, Palestine, etc.) is that a big portion immigration of Russians (mainly Jews and Ukrainians) that occurred from 1905 to 1914 never occurs.
Well it is a republic, but what kind? How capitalist or how socialist? A highly representative democratic republic, or a military or strongman regime that just calls itself a Republic? Are peaceful transfers of power the exception, or the rule? Does Russia remain as committed as it was in OTL to the French alliance and its Balkan "interests". Is this Russia inclined to make an Entente with Britain, and vice versa, or not? Does this Russia give a crap about Bosnia in 1905 or a few years down the line?
Post by Alex Milman
As for the future, taking into an account that you are not providing any details in your scenario, anything is possible.
Well I think the details are more fleshed out and apparent. And I will assume that with Mukden and Tsushima lost, and the 1905 war being only a memory for 1917 Russians, that Russo-Japanese peace terms will be hashed out mainly along OTL's lines fairly quickly.
There are a variety of short-term basic questions to answer:
How long is Prince Lvov Prime Minister?
Who follows him as Prime Minister?
When is the Constituent Assembly scheduled for?
Who wins the elections for it and what kind of constitution is adopted?
Is there a land reform/land redistribution program?
Will politics operate entirely in the constitutional and politicking spheres, or will divisions get so severe that factions arm up and fight a civil war?
Outside Russia, what do the other powers think of the sudden change? Is Russia more or less debilitated internationally in 1905-1908 compared to OTL? Do the Germans or Austrians think Russia is immobilized and they can try to make more ambitious moves against potential opponents like France (for the Germans) or Serbia (for Austria)?
Getting back to the constitutional and political evolution of this alternate Russia, I will review some of the timeline of events of the Provisional Republic and early Soviet regime in 1917 and 1918.
February Revolution - pre-PoD
May 29-POD day - Prince Lvov is Premier, Kerensky is in Cabinet, Russia has not yet formally declared a republic.
So in the ATL, everything after this is subject to change, but for comparison purposes, here is what happened:
July- PG proclaims Russia a Republic
July 1 - the Kerensky Offensive- not relevant in this scenario and definitely not happening
July Days -
July 21 Kerensky becomes premier
November 7th - Boleshevik coup
November 25th - Constituent Assembly elections- held on the date set by the PG
---Here's my knowledge gap - when did the PG set November 25th as the date, and why?
Had it been scheduled for earlier and postponed?
Did the war delay it, ie, in the ATL where they escape WWI, would the PG schedule it and hold it faster.
Obviously, the PG ultimately set it for a date having to assume the war would not be over.
Constituent Assembly election results - (obviously there's a lot of potential for different results in the ATL)
In OTL, the results were something like 80 to 85% socialist of one type or another. Was there voter suppression of likely reactionary or bourgeois voters, or were the grassroots support of the liberal parties no more than 8%, as it seems to show.
Party Votes [15] %
Socialist Revolutionaries (SRs) 17,943,000 40.4%
Bolsheviks 10,661,000 24.0%
Ukrainian SRs 3,433.000 7.7%
Constitutional Democrats ("Kadets") 2,088,000 4.7%
Mensheviks 1,144.000 2.6%
Other Russian Liberal Parties 1,261,000 2.8%
Georgian Menshevik Party 662,000 1.5%
Musavat (Azerbaidžan) 616,000 1.4%
Dashnaktsutiun (Armenia) 560,000 1.3%
Left SRs 451,000 1.0%
Other Socialists 401,000 0.9%
Alash Orda (Kazakstan) 407,000 0.9%
Other National Minority Parties 407,000 0.9%
Total (counted votes) 40,034,000 90%
Unaccounted 4,543,000 10%
Total 44,577,000 100%
18-19 January - Constituent Assembly meets