What would Poland's eastern borders be if:
1.The Whites won the Russian Civil War?
2. There's no World War I at all but Russia still eventually experiences a revolution and perhaps even a civil war?
I'm asking about these two scenarios separately because they could produce different answers.
Personally, I think that in the first scenario, the Poles might be capable of getting the same borders that they got in real life simply because of their strength relative to the Russians. I don't think that the White Army would have been particularly stronger than the Red Army was, which in turn would have probably still allowed Poland to conquer the Kresy--unless perhaps the White Army would have stopped at the Curzon Line from the very beginning and built up defensive fortifications there, in which case Polish penetration into the Kresy might be considerably harder than it was in real life.
As for the second scenario, it will probably depend on just how much support Germany and Austria-Hungary will give Poland, which will in turn depend on what Poland's views towards these powers (as well as towards France is going to be) and whether Germany and Austria-Hungary think that they can find better allies in the Poles or in Russian reactionaries. If Russian reactionaries (who will likely inevitably eventually attempt to recapture power in Russia in this TL) agree to abandon Russia's French alliance in exchange for large-scale German and A-H support, then Germany would eagerly throw the Poles under the bus in order to be best friends with the Russian reactionaries. In such a scenario, Poland would be lucky to get all of the territories west of the Curzon Line. If, however, Russian reactionaries refuse to abandon Russia's alliance with France, then Germany will likely support the Poles and any other separatists that it can find on the territory of the former Russian Empire assuming that they are actually willing to cooperate with Germany. In such a scenario, Germany might also pressure A-H to sell or transfer Galicia to Poland in exchange for Poland installing a Hapsburg King (not necessarily the same one who rules over A-H, though--could be a (distant) cousin of his). In such a scenario, I could see Poland having eastern borders roughly similar to what it had in the interwar era (1921-1939) in real life. Ukrainians in eastern Galicia could, of course, want to be a part of an independent Ukraine, but I don't know just how strong Ukrainian separatism in Russia will actually be in this TL. In real life, Ukrainian separatism during the Russian Civil War wasn't too powerful unless it was actually propped up by Polish bayonets, which in turn required Ukrainian territorial concessions to Poland.
Anyway, any thoughts on this?
1.The Whites won the Russian Civil War?
2. There's no World War I at all but Russia still eventually experiences a revolution and perhaps even a civil war?
I'm asking about these two scenarios separately because they could produce different answers.
Personally, I think that in the first scenario, the Poles might be capable of getting the same borders that they got in real life simply because of their strength relative to the Russians. I don't think that the White Army would have been particularly stronger than the Red Army was, which in turn would have probably still allowed Poland to conquer the Kresy--unless perhaps the White Army would have stopped at the Curzon Line from the very beginning and built up defensive fortifications there, in which case Polish penetration into the Kresy might be considerably harder than it was in real life.
As for the second scenario, it will probably depend on just how much support Germany and Austria-Hungary will give Poland, which will in turn depend on what Poland's views towards these powers (as well as towards France is going to be) and whether Germany and Austria-Hungary think that they can find better allies in the Poles or in Russian reactionaries. If Russian reactionaries (who will likely inevitably eventually attempt to recapture power in Russia in this TL) agree to abandon Russia's French alliance in exchange for large-scale German and A-H support, then Germany would eagerly throw the Poles under the bus in order to be best friends with the Russian reactionaries. In such a scenario, Poland would be lucky to get all of the territories west of the Curzon Line. If, however, Russian reactionaries refuse to abandon Russia's alliance with France, then Germany will likely support the Poles and any other separatists that it can find on the territory of the former Russian Empire assuming that they are actually willing to cooperate with Germany. In such a scenario, Germany might also pressure A-H to sell or transfer Galicia to Poland in exchange for Poland installing a Hapsburg King (not necessarily the same one who rules over A-H, though--could be a (distant) cousin of his). In such a scenario, I could see Poland having eastern borders roughly similar to what it had in the interwar era (1921-1939) in real life. Ukrainians in eastern Galicia could, of course, want to be a part of an independent Ukraine, but I don't know just how strong Ukrainian separatism in Russia will actually be in this TL. In real life, Ukrainian separatism during the Russian Civil War wasn't too powerful unless it was actually propped up by Polish bayonets, which in turn required Ukrainian territorial concessions to Poland.
Anyway, any thoughts on this?
