What If? What if ASBs antipodally swap the hemispheres for Australasia and Iberia in the 1890s, or in the 1930s?

[raharris1973]

Scenario 1: ASB action in 1896:

Australia, NZ, and New Guinea (or at least eastern half) & Bismarcks disappear on Jan. 1 1896. Spain, Portugal, Spanish Morocco, Balearics, Madeira, Canaries, disappear at the same time. All are replaced by impenetrable, impassable, fully reflective stasis* fields/bubbles foor six months, on reappearing in their new locations, at their exact antipodes, on June 1, 1896, to minimize seasonal disruption.

(*stasis means time stands still, thus matter/energy cannot move through areas where the dimension of time is not applying (a stasis field), making it a perfect force field. It's been used in multiple science fiction works. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stasis_(fiction))

ASB spell prevents climate disasters and prevents mass panic and madness, that would distract people and countries from carrying on with their normal economic, cultural and political lives. How do the 1890s and turn of the century proceed?

This historical era includes: This is about a year into the Cuban Revolution against Spain, about two months before the beginning of US legislation escalating US participation in the Venezuelan boundary dispute, 6 years after the British ultimatum to Portugal, and 8 months before the start of the Filipino revolution. The disappearance of the antipodes occurs at the same time as the Jameson Raid in Transvaal and the Kaiser’s Kruger Telegram the following day. Would the Spanish in Cuba have faced a critical resupply crisis during the homeland’s six month hiatus in time? Would any of the other Spanish and Portuguese colonies, then all momentarily at peace, have broken out into rebellion or declared secession, or been been occupied by third powers during that hiatus? What ability do the Spanish and Portuguese have to reestablish control over their scattered global imperial holdings when they get back from their six months hiatus in time? What does this event do to the possibility of a Spanish-American War, on any front, in the Caribbean or Pacific? What does it do to the prospect of Australian federation and British imperial policy going forward into the 20th century?

Here are maps illustrating the change:

Global view


Close of New Zealand relative to Europe


Close up of Australia & New Guinea relative to the Atlantic & American coasts


"Close-up" of Iberian countries relative to the South and East Pacific and Pacific American coasts




Scenario 2: ASB action in 1932:

Australia, NZ, and New Guinea (or at least eastern half) & Bismarcks disappear on Jan. 1 1932. Spain, Portugal, Spanish Morocco, Balearics, Madeira, Canaries, disappear at the same time. All are replaced by impenetrable, impassable, fully reflective stasis fields/bubbles. For six months, on reappearing in their new locations, at their exact antipodes, on June 1, 1932, to minimize seasonal disruption.

ASB spell prevents climate disasters and prevents mass panic and madness, that would distract people and countries from carrying on with their normal economic, cultural and political lives. How do the 1930s proceed?

Historical era includes: Portuguese Estate Novo, Spanish Republic, Spanish Civil War, Australia and New Zealand independence per Statute of Westminster and the early years of the British Imperial Preference non-free trade system, and Britain’s handling of its interwar foreign and defence policy dilemmas and WWII.

No new maps, the geographic change is basically identical, and I am not showing in detail all the world's political borders.

 

[WolfBear]

Would the Spanish in Cuba have faced a critical resupply crisis during the homeland’s six month hiatus in time?

Very likely Yes.

Would any of the other Spanish and Portuguese colonies, then all momentarily at peace, have broken out into rebellion or declared secession, or been been occupied by third powers during that hiatus?

The Philippines, at least.

What ability do the Spanish and Portuguese have to reestablish control over their scattered global imperial holdings when they get back from their six months hiatus in time?

None, because the US and/or Japan won't let them.

 

[raharris1973]

None, because the US and/or Japan won't let them.

Those two countries intervene against the Portuguese too?

 

[WolfBear]

Those two countries intervene against the Portuguese too?

No, only against the Spanish.

 

[Buba]

None, because the US and/or Japan won't let them.

Meh, you are grossly exagerrating Japan here.

No, only against the Spanish.

Where's the love?!? Where's the love?!?

I'd expect a population boom in NZ. It has lots of empty arable land and mineral resources and no longer is in the arse end of the globe. 2-3M Irish move there and the Irish Question is resolved
Please leave a strait between South Island and Morocco. Can be narrow.

France unhappy, even more hemmed in then before. On the other hand Italy can see the broad expanses of the Atlantic from the top of St. Peter's Cathedral
Difference of perspectives.

Portugal and Spain - soooo loooonely!

 

[raharris1973]

Meh, you are grossly exagerrating Japan here.


Where's the love?!? Where's the love?!?

I'd expect a population boom in NZ. It has lots of empty arable land and mineral resources and no longer is in the arse end of the globe. 2-3M Irish move there and the Irish Question is resolved
Please leave a strait between South Island and Morocco. Can be narrow.

France unhappy, even more hemmed in then before. On the other hand Italy can see the broad expanses of the Atlantic from the top of St. Peter's Cathedral
Difference of perspectives.

Portugal and Spain - soooo loooonely!

Population boom in New Zealand I can see. 2-3 million Irish could become O’Kiwis and move there but that would not “solve” Ireland issues, just expand them. New Zealand is close enough to Britain it might not get any further devolved self government and be additional counties represented in British parliament.

Along with Irish O’Kiwis, upper and middle class English ‘Nigel Carruthers-Kiwi’ types will also move to New Zealand for the warmer weather and nicer country living. New Zealand, as it develops, will probably be an easy and natural stop and place of settlement also for southern and Eastern European immigrants from Italy “paisan-kiwis”, from south Slavic lands “hrvatskiwis”, from Greece “mr and mrs George kiwiopoulos”, from Lebanon-Syria “Joseph Malouf Kiwi”, Armenia “the Kiwinian family”, and the Russian Pale of Settlement via Odessa, “the greenbaum kiwis”

Sorry I cannot leave a strait between NZ North Island and Morocco, at least not in the 1896 version of this. The land is connected, so the new version of the Gibraltar straits for exiting the Mediterranean is now the strait between north and South Island. Between NZ and France is of course a far wider psssageway between the Atlantic and the Med. Good news for France! It can easily unite its Atlantic and Med fleets. Italy has wider Atlantic access too. In the 1932 version, if all of then Spanish Morocco goes down under with Spain, maybe you can have the narrow separating strait you want between Morocco and NZ Buba.

Portugal and Spain- so lonely. But left more alone. Might have some advantages for Spain in the 1932 version of the scenario.

 

[Buba]

“the greenbaum kiwis”

To quote one of the Asterix books - Rosenblumenthalovitch kiwis.

Thank you for the heartfelt chuckle over the new flavours of Kiwis.

Will Britain give back Gibraltar? It is meaningless now ...

True that France now has the one fleet to bind them in darkness, but the gap between South Island and Kerry looks smaller than the Bay of Biscay. That's what I meant by "hemmed in".

 

[raharris1973]

I think in the 1890s scenario America will be more circumspect about taking a hardline over the Venezuela boundary affair, with British imperial possessions like Austalia poking it in the face. Britain may be less blasé about Venezuelan debt collection (which it did in league with Germany and Italy in OTL) in this ATL.

German New Guinea becomes a forward base for German gunboat diplomacy related to South America- esp Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, Chile.

In the 1932 version of the scenario- Spain be left to stew more in its own social juices, with the Fascist powers and Soviet Union subsidizing right and left factions a great deal less than OTL because Spain is not strategically located in Europe, and strategic minerals are not especially close.

I don't think in this 1932 TL, New Zealand and Australia would try to pull Britain in the direction of appeasement. They would favor containment of Italy and Germany, all things being equal.

 

[raharris1973]

For the 1890s version of this scenario - I would predict that this occurrence would greatly boost emigration from the British Isles, and Europe more generally, to Australia, and especially New Zealand, now that it is so much closer. Also, by putting them in the same hemisphere in the same growing season, this puts Australian and New Zealand farmers in direct competition with American ones, making competition tougher for all, probably more so for the Americans, possibly boosting Populist sentiment there. Australia is also more convenient for American immigration. It probably siphons some flow that would have otherwise gone to Canada, the US, and Latin America.

The British Empire has a land border with Morocco to protect at the edge of New Zealand's former South Island. That likely means Britain will not look kindly on the opposite shore of Morocco becoming an exclusive French or Spanish preserve but rather Britain would support an international open door or great power condominium, if not it's own rule there. The strait between NZ north and south island would be the new equivalent of Gibraltar. however, north of New Zealand, there is new passageway between there and Ireland and Cornwall and Brittany that is far wider than any mere strait, "unchoking" free movement of ships from the Mediterranean to the Atlantic and back.

The German section of New Guinea is now a German tropical Atlantic base instead of a tropical Pacific base. The Germans (for as long as they keep it) can use it to support their trade, influence, and gunboat diplomacy in Africa, the Caribbean, and against South American countries like Brazil, Venezuela, Uruguay, and Argentina.

It is an open question whether Australia and New Zealand become as autonomous from London and form their historic continental federations. Particularly so for New Zealand, the relatively smaller and close to England. New Zealand may end up simply being organized as counties and constituencies directly incorporated into Great Britain and Ireland and directly represented in the Westminster parliament.

The US, with a more robust string of British bases (by way of Australia) sticking towards its face and the Caribbean will probably be more circumspect and a bit less strident in tone when weighing in on the British Guiana-Venezuela border dispute.

break/break

During the period of Spain's apparent absence under the stasis bubble for six months, Spanish forces in Cuba will most likely concede independence to the Cuban rebels in return for rights of naturalization, property, and personal security, or alternatively, they may debark for Puerto Rico. Most other parts of the Spanish empire may hold under the status quo regime as a caretaker, although there is a chance the Filipino rebellion may begin sooner than historical, and Spanish forces may concede independence to rebels, believing themselves hopeless without support from metropolitan Spain.

The status quo regimes in Portuguese colonies are likely to hold together under local officials while Portugal is absent, because they were primarily neighboring colonies of friendly European nations or ruling areas with barely developed local nationalism, or in areas with sensitive treaty port regimes like India and China where no one wants to upset the apple cart. The senior most Governor and "center" of the empire for this period is likely Angola.

There might be a delay, or a slight alteration in terms more to Britain's liking in the Hay-Pauncefote treaty over the Isthmian canal, because British interest and power projection toward that region will be enhanced.

When Spain and Portugal reappear in the southern hemisphere, they are very isolated from Europe and Africa. It makes it ever easier for them to remain neutral countries going forward. Spain finds itself shorn of Cuba, without a fight. Spain never fights America here. It may end up shorn of the Philippines at the same time, or it may end up having to fight a long, drawn out, Filipino insurgency, that it fights hard against than in OTL. Spain should have more ability and interest in holding on to Micronesian islands including Guam. Portugal can likely reinsert itself at the top of its global empire. Both will be net emigration countries. A difference will be that northern Europe and North America won't be so convenient for migration and seasonal work, so most emigrants from Spain will go to Spanish America, and most Portuguese emigrants will go to Brazil, Portuguese colonies, and Hawaii.

I think Portugal is still likely to turn Republican since its monarchy had been humiliated, but maybe that outcome could be changed.

For the second scenario in 1932:

Spanish Morocco would go with Spain. This might mean there might be a very, very narrow strait between New Zealand (former North Island) and French Morocco. Or they are connected by a very, very, very narrow isthmus. The Spanish Republic will have a great deal of social tensions, which will flare up, with more likelihood than not of turning into a coup and/or Civil War. However, not being on the strategic flank of Europe, foreign participation in combat and in arming the combatants will be much less than OTL. If the Popular Front is elected, the left is more likely to defeat the coup and win any subsequent civil war than not. The long-term effects on the rightist-leaning Portuguese Estado Novo next door would be interesting.

I think the colonies both Iberian countries still held in 1932 were at a low enough level of development and national consciousness that the status quo administrations stay in charge, and they will pick up where they leave off. Possibly, Chinese Nationalists pull a stunt occupying Macau. Or Chinese Communist guerrillas do so, forcing Nationalists to go after them, but it is an under 50-50 chance.

Australia, Australian Papua New Guinea, and New Zealand are all in the Atlantic. The 1930s are past the point of peak European emigration, and this Depression era was not a high emigration time anyway. But travel and the hunt for seasonal or temporary work would be more feasible between all of North America, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, and Europe.

Without the Spanish Civil War to suck him and his volunteer forces to ever deeper involvement, Mussolini may have a dangerous amount extra static energy floating around in the years 1936-1939. He might deploy it in aggressive wars against either Yugoslavia or Greece. As a real longshot, he might do so against France, but it is doubtful. Or he may do less to put the brakes on Hitler in '38, or join him from the beginning of a war if it starts in 1939. If so, and he hasn't had wasteful medium sized wars in the mean time, his forces equipment may be better than OTL.

The Soviet Union, with any Spanish Civil War less relevant to them, may devote more attention, volunteers, and aid funds to supporting the Chinese Nationalist and United Front's fight against Japan.

With their physical location now closer to Europe, New Zealand, and especially Australia, may be less disinterested in continental security affairs and may signal supportiveness for British rearmament and firmness against Hitler as early as 1938, instead of flexing their regional autonomy muscles and fretting about not getting enough support against Japan.