What if Italy gets greedy in 1912?

[raharris1973]

[Credit for original idea and map goes to user "Magnum" from AH.com]

Italy pushes harder during the Italo-Turkish War, supporting the existing anti-Ottoman uprising in Arabia and landing in Albania and the northern Aegean Islands.
The war continues past the OTL date as the Ottomans refuse the additional Italian demands and are then faced by the Balkan League joining in.
Austria-Hungary makes some noises protesting Italian gains, but their bluff is easily called.

Aside from Italian (instead of independent) Albania, the borders in the Balkan mainland end up being the ones from OTL. In addition, much to Greece's annoyance, Italy keeps all of the Aegean islands it took from the Turks, as well as a protectorate over Yemen.



What is the aftermath of this? I assume the 2nd Balkan War is likely to erupt ITTL as well, and Franz Ferdinand is unlikely to skip on visiting Sarajevo on the anniversary of the Battle of Kosovo, nor is the Black Hand unlikely to be dissuaded from trying to kill him. (so let's assume ww1 still breaks out)

 

[Buba]

There are the four Great Powers to consider.

 

[49ersfootball]

[Credit for original idea and map goes to user "Magnum" from AH.com]

Italy pushes harder during the Italo-Turkish War, supporting the existing anti-Ottoman uprising in Arabia and landing in Albania and the northern Aegean Islands.
The war continues past the OTL date as the Ottomans refuse the additional Italian demands and are then faced by the Balkan League joining in.
Austria-Hungary makes some noises protesting Italian gains, but their bluff is easily called.

Aside from Italian (instead of independent) Albania, the borders in the Balkan mainland end up being the ones from OTL. In addition, much to Greece's annoyance, Italy keeps all of the Aegean islands it took from the Turks, as well as a protectorate over Yemen.



What is the aftermath of this? I assume the 2nd Balkan War is likely to erupt ITTL as well, and Franz Ferdinand is unlikely to skip on visiting Sarajevo on the anniversary of the Battle of Kosovo, nor is the Black Hand unlikely to be dissuaded from trying to kill him. (so let's assume ww1 still breaks out)

Getting Juicier. European version of Fear & Loathing.....

 

[raharris1973]

Here is a slightly different "greedy Italy" plan for this war.

The Italian extra land grabs are in the Ottomans' remote Al-Hasa Persian Gulf province, south of Kuwait, instead of Yemen, and in Lebanon and Palestine, from Beirut to Gaza, instead of the more sensitive-to-Austria area of Albania.

Here it is shown on the map:

 

[raharris1973]

There are the four Great Powers to consider.

OK, you're implying they (the 4 GPs - Russia, France, Germany, Britain- got anymore, like Austria-Hungary?) get in the way of additional Italian gains? Who in particular makes the effort to stop Italian gains where, and why? The Ottomans of course will *try* to stop additional Italian gains but could have serious trouble, at least at any of the extremities of their empire.

 

[Buba]

As to GP intentions the London Conference should provide clues.
This is not an area of my exprtise, hence I wont speculate who'd support parition and who'd oppose too much nibbling at the Ottomans.
IMO Germany is the most likely to prop up Turkey. A-H too?

 

[PsihoKekec]

The British will not like the Italians trying to take control of Gulf of Aden straits.

 

[Buba]

The British will not like the Italians trying to take control of Gulf of Aden straits.

Brit stronk stomp silly Italian easy!

To get there Regia Marina had to pass through Suez Canal ... Italy got its steaming coal from Old South Wales ... need I go on?

 

[ATP]

The British will not like the Italians trying to take control of Gulf of Aden straits.

Indeed.We would have bigger war in 1912,maybe even WW1 - but,England would support Germany here.

But,if notching happen,then in OTL WW1 stronger Italy would help free Dardanelles for sailing in 1915,maybe 1916.
Then,Russia would not fall,and we would have peace with defeated Germany and small Poland as Russia vassal state/they planned to do so/

 

[PsihoKekec]

In 1912 Italy was in alliance with Germany and Italy. But as Bubba pointed out, the British would use indirect means at first, to make Italians see the reason and they would probably succeed.

 

[ATP]

In 1912 Italy was in alliance with Germany and Italy. But as Bubba pointed out, the British would use indirect means at first, to make Italians see the reason and they would probably succeed.

Indeed,they were still german allies,so if it come to earlier WW1,England would stil support France and Russia.
But you are right,Italy almost certainly would avoid war then.

But,if WW1 still happened with Italy in German camp - result would be the same,but italy would be among losers.
Maybe A-H would survive as rump state,too?

P.S Merry Christmas !

 

[raharris1973]

One thing brought up elsewhere is that while all the powers were OK with Italy taking over Libya, Austria-Hungary would have had a big problem with Italy taking over the Albania and thus controlling both sides of the Straits of Otranto and the entrance to the Adriatic.

What if, seeing the Italians go ahead anyway, the Austro-Hungarians declared war on Italy and prosecuted it?

Germany is now watching both of its Triple Alliance partners fight each other.

What does Germany do? Mediate and demand peace? Can that be effective?

Would it stay more loyal to Austria-Hungary if it cannot break up the fight?

Or would it stay more loyal to Italy if cannot break up the fight?

Would it drop *both* Italy and Austria-Hungary as allies, declaring Germany an unbound free agent, because its allies seem either faithless or reckless or weak, and thus not sources of strength?

 

[Buba]

I agree with A-H getting "excited" over Italians in Albania.
Coming to blows I suppose is possible. IMO Berlin would be very cross with both Rome and Vienna/Budapest over this. Germany would hate having to chose, but I suspect that the view would be that A-H is more valuable against Russia than Italy against France.

 

[ATP]

I agree with A-H getting "excited" over Italians in Albania.
Coming to blows I suppose is possible. IMO Berlin would be very cross with both Rome and Vienna/Budapest over this. Germany would hate having to chose, but I suspect that the view would be that A-H is more valuable against Russia than Italy against France.

And rightly so.There are old cruel jokes about Italian soldiers:

1.Why Italian army exist?
Becouse Austrians need enemy which they coud defeat.....

2.There was secret agreement in Versail in 1919,to made germans more humilitated:

If they start next WW,they must take Italy as ally.....

 

[Buba]

This is more geography related - in OTL the Germans expected Italy to send the Regio Esercito to Lorraine (as promised by previous King, and more sensible than attacking across the Alps).

 

[Husky_Khan]

I don't think the Austro-Hungarians would be able to make sufficient advances against the Italians in either Northern Italy or Northern Albania with how the terrain is, which isn't saying much as the Italians wouldn't be able to do much either. The only time a breakthrough occurred in the Italian Front really was when zee Germans showed up in force after all and the Italians were cracking thanks to spending so much time under command of Cadorna during their long vacation on the Isonzo.

Being 1912, Cadorna wasn't in the same position he was in during the outbreak of World War One and with all of these expeditions of the Italians going on, it's possible even if he does achieve the same rank he did in the Great War his ruinous command wouldn't be focused on destroying the Italian Army on the Alpine Fronts since he'd have concerns elsewhere as Chief of the Italian Army.

Along with Germany having to potentially choose between the Italians and Hapsburgs, the other major issue is that the British will be worried about the Italians presence both in Aden and the Horn of Africa now and would likely want assurances that the passages through the Red Sea and Suez Canal are secure and free of non-British influence. This could cause tension with the British... BUTT this could also cause the British to work on wedging the Italians away from the Germans since this is the height of the Dreadnought race between Germany and Britain.

Then again, it could make the Italians a more appealing ally to Germany since they can depend on the Italians on running interference with the British. The main issue for them is they'd still really desire Hapsburg help to counter the Russians since the Russian-French Alliance is still intact. If Germany had to choose, I think they'd find the Hapsburgs (and Ottomans) being on their side more preferable then having Italy on their side in any future conflict.