Would Russia have ended up more or less as industrialized if the Whites had won?

Cherico

Well-known member
A lot depends on the nature of the White regime. I think in most cases, it's going to be fairly "normal", and widely accepted by the wider world. This alone is a great boon, compared to OTL. It means access to foreign investment. As has been mentioned, the lack of needless genocides and purges is a massive advantage. The retention of the educated/moneyed class is also a sure bet in the case of a fairly moderate White regime, so that's a plus as well. In fact, many Russian exiles will return.

It must also be understood that the myth of Soviet progress is just that: a myth. It's bullshit. Their industrialisation was highly inefficient, ludicrously selective towards what Stalin and his thugs figured they'd need, and not-at-all ideal for long-term benefits of growth. It was also almost entirely done via commie-typical "redistribution", which means they just looted money and materials and energy elsewhere, and dedicated to the programmes the regime wanted to prioritise. They essentially emptied their right pocked to fill the left pocket. Gain in absolute terms: minimal. (And ultimately even zero, because of efficiency losses involved.)

Almost any other regime would have done better than the USSR, which was ultimately a total failure in every conceivable way. It became a dirt-poor shithole with a tiny economy and a beaten-down dwindling populace, and all available means were pillaged to put into the over-sized army (which was in itself a bureaucratic nightmare, and far from an efficient machine). The USSR was a disaster, which inevitably collapsed in on itself.

Even a totally insane White regime, with the worst loons in charge, would probably not be as inefficient as the USSR. After all, Nazi Germany (which was just such a regime) was economically retarded, too, but not as moronic as the USSR. Rle of thumb: the closer you get to a full command economy, the worse it is.

and yet dispite all of that we as a species have learned fucking nothing and we still have people who want to try this shit....again.
 

ATP

Well-known member
and yet dispite all of that we as a species have learned fucking nothing and we still have people who want to try this shit....again.
Becouse that "was not real communism"
Sometimes i really wont that soviet conqer entire Europe - thanks to that in western countries we would have far less people who belive in that shit.
 

Firebat

Well-known member
What Whites? Which faction of them? The Tsarists? The Republicans? The Nationalist Separatists? Kerenskyite social-democrats? Define which faction first and then we can answer the question otherwise it is so overly broad as to be meaningless.
This.
The scenario has no defined beginning (as "White" victory can mean basically anything) or the end (as there is no way to define what the next world war would be and when would it happen and who would fight against whom).
And there are dozens forks in the road between these two poorly defined points, none of which are specified by OP.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Becouse that "was not real communism"
Sometimes i really wont that soviet conqer entire Europe - thanks to that in western countries we would have far less people who belive in that shit.

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Zyobot

Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.

Pretty much!

At times, I wonder how OTL Russians nostalgic for the "Soviet glory days" would react to a TL where a liberalized, non-communist Russia achieves everything the USSR achieved and considerably more? Certainly, the butterfly effect would determine relevant geopolitical factors, though at the same time, I think it'd solidly demonstrate what a screwy economic system communism is and encourage Russian historians to reassess whether Stalin really was the "necessary evil" he's been made out to be. (Not to mention flooring communists and Soviet apologists who once sneered at the Tsarist regime as backwards and underdeveloped, though it's equally likely they'll turn to other scapegoats to explain their preferred ideology's failures and demean ATL Russia's success.)
 

Chiron

Well-known member

And the Ironic Part is they are absolutely right as Communism is suppose to be a direct democracy according to Marx's plan.

But give one man all the power with no checks, no accountability, and no dissent...

Then a pile of corpses is indeed the result. Capitalism is not much better and not actually practiced either as Big Corps and Banks get bailed out instead of being allowed to fail as Capitalism calls for...

Why we need to get back to the Founding Fathers' wisdom and re-embrace Industrial Mercantilism and isolationism.
 

History Learner

Well-known member
If Russia would not have descended into warlordism, then Yes, very possibly. White Russia would not have benefitted from rapid 1930s-style industrialization, but this would have been at least somewhat compensated by the lack of War Communism:


Of course, it's far from clear that there would have actually been a Nazi rise to power in Germany in this TL (no Communist bogeyman, for instance) and even if there would have still been a Nazi rise to power in Germany in this TL, it could have been much easier for Russia to form alliances with other countries without the Communist threat. So, France might have never fallen if Germany would have had to fight a two-front war in World War II at the very beginning.

The 1930s rapid industrialization is mostly a myth.

screen-shot-2018-03-28-at-1-33-06-pm-png.378654
 

History Learner

Well-known member
Exaclt what it says! Would Russia had been more or less industrialized by the kick off of WW2 had the whites won?

A timeline where World War I is avoided or it is won and the Civil War is avoided is one where the Russian Empire has 600 million people and absolutely dominates the world economically, militarily and politically. There will be no WWII, and we would still be living in an era of Russian dominance.

 
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WolfBear

Well-known member
A timeline where World War I is avoided or it is won and the Civil War is avoided is one where the Russian Empire has 600 million people and absolutely dominates the world economically, militarily and politically. There will be no WWII, and we would still be living in an era of Russian dominance.



I think that 500-550 million is more realistic here unless we're talking about a developed Russia that sees a lot of immigration, in which case 600 million is possible. I previously speculated about having a lot of South Asians settle in a Central Asia that a developed Russia permanently keeps.
 

TheRomanSlayer

Unipolarity is for Subhuman Trogdolytes
I think that 500-550 million is more realistic here unless we're talking about a developed Russia that sees a lot of immigration, in which case 600 million is possible. I previously speculated about having a lot of South Asians settle in a Central Asia that a developed Russia permanently keeps.
You might have a better chance of attracting Koreans to settle in Russia than South Asians, and there is already a precedent to Korean settlement in Russia. The Koryo-saram are basically Koreans that have assimilated into Russian society, and they could have been a major factor in the Russian Far East without the communist regime. However, the fear of a Japanese invasion of the Russian Far East from Manchuria still persists, which might have an effect on the Korean population in Russia.

Alternatively, you could have the Hazaras of Afghanistan settle in Central Asia, far away from their Pashtun neighbors. That might be possible in a non-communist Russian state.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
You might have a better chance of attracting Koreans to settle in Russia than South Asians, and there is already a precedent to Korean settlement in Russia. The Koryo-saram are basically Koreans that have assimilated into Russian society, and they could have been a major factor in the Russian Far East without the communist regime. However, the fear of a Japanese invasion of the Russian Far East from Manchuria still persists, which might have an effect on the Korean population in Russia.

Alternatively, you could have the Hazaras of Afghanistan settle in Central Asia, far away from their Pashtun neighbors. That might be possible in a non-communist Russian state.

East Asians I would presume would mostly settle in the Russian Far East. Here, nobody will deport them to Central Asia, most likely. Hazara migration to Russia is possible, as is Uyghur migration to Russia, but the reason that I invoked South Asia here is because South Asia's population is absolutely enormous and thus could provide an extremely massive immigrant pool, similar to Latin America for the US. In real life, since 1965, around 30 million Latin Americans have moved to the US. It might even be slightly higher right now, since this figure was from 2015.
 

TheRomanSlayer

Unipolarity is for Subhuman Trogdolytes
East Asians I would presume would mostly settle in the Russian Far East. Here, nobody will deport them to Central Asia, most likely. Hazara migration to Russia is possible, as is Uyghur migration to Russia, but the reason that I invoked South Asia here is because South Asia's population is absolutely enormous and thus could provide an extremely massive immigrant pool, similar to Latin America for the US. In real life, since 1965, around 30 million Latin Americans have moved to the US. It might even be slightly higher right now, since this figure was from 2015.
South Asians would also have to go through Afghanistan in order to reach Russian Central Asia though.

I would predict that the South Asians that would have immigrated to Russia could range from ambitious entrepreneurs seeking to expand their business into the fertile non-communist Russian market, to basically the people that are considered on the lowest level of the Indian caste system moving there as migrant laborers.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
South Asians would also have to go through Afghanistan in order to reach Russian Central Asia though.

I would predict that the South Asians that would have immigrated to Russia could range from ambitious entrepreneurs seeking to expand their business into the fertile non-communist Russian market, to basically the people that are considered on the lowest level of the Indian caste system moving there as migrant laborers.

It would help if Russia and British India partitioned Afghanistan between the two of them, Yes. Though travelling through Mexico does not appear to be a significant hurdle for Central Americans.

And Yes, that sounds about right. What about Muslim South Asians?
 

TheRomanSlayer

Unipolarity is for Subhuman Trogdolytes
It would help if Russia and British India partitioned Afghanistan between the two of them, Yes. Though travelling through Mexico does not appear to be a significant hurdle for Central Americans.

And Yes, that sounds about right. What about Muslim South Asians?
The problem with partitioning Afghanistan is that they'd lose a valuable buffer state that served their security needs respectively.
 

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