Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[LordsFire]

Show me the military that complained about having too much dakka. They don't need to be suffering catastrophic losses to want more reinforcement. Your objection is absurd!

As you've probably noticed, this is the level of reasoning you should generally expect from HL. As I said months ago on one of the Ukr/Rus war threads, for him Russia winning is a matter of religious conviction. Everything will be twisted and warped to fit that worldview. He has explicitly chosen to disbelieve the possibility of anything other than Russian victory.

Hell, he probably thinks the 'referendums' on joining Russia were legit.

 

[Vaermina]

Both Ukrainian and Russian sources indicate the decisive moment for the situation around Lyman has arrived; Ukrainian channels have been saying for days Zelensky ordered the deployment of all possible reserves to this vector of the front while Russian forces are saying the defense has reached the critical stage as BARS-16 (Kuban Cossack volunteers), the LRP NM and Russian Army regulars have been taking on all comers for weeks around the city. AFU breakthrough success to the North has reduced the supply route into the city to the road through Tors'ke, which is under artillery from the AFU. Sasha Kots within the last hour reports fighting has reached the city itself, with Yampol nearby as in the "gray zone" (contested).

So, if the AFU takes the city, what does that mean? Most likely, a fall back to a defensive line based on Svatove-Kreminna-Rubizhne. However, one thing Ukrainian sources continue to report is high casualties, exhaustion from weeks of offensive and the depletion of reserves; indications are they've pulled troops from as far as Kiev and Odessa for these operations since the start of September. Why is this relevant? Ukrainian sources report a build up of Russian forces on the flanks, particularly in Belgorod. Sasha Kots also likewise questioned the lack of reinforcements to the Lyman direct axis, which would indicate they're going somewhere, in line with Ukrainian reporting. Perhaps a trap is afoot? It is hard to tell this early.

Ukrainian channels that might be offering actual information that are available to the public have been completely silent outside of the occasional picture taken and posted in a newly liberated town/city.

So try again.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Another day, another wave of mobilization excellence!

Putin's Mobilization Orders Might've Dampened Some of his Domestic Support



Mobiks Showing up for Unscheduled Field Training Immediately.



Combatives Training Already Beginning...



Kazakhstan Offers Hope as Reportedly a Hundred Thousand Russians Coincidentally Decided to Take Vacations in Kazakhstan.



Penal Battalions Being Used to "Support" Wagner Operations.

 

[Abhorsen]

Good on Kazakhstan for accepting refugees. And make no mistake, running from the slavery and possible death that is conscription ought to qualify one as a refugee. Honestly, I'd actually advocate Europe opening it's borders to these refugees, especially if it's gonna accept refugees from Syria et al.

 

[WolfBear]

Good on Kazakhstan for accepting refugees. And make no mistake, running from the slavery and possible death that is conscription ought to qualify one as a refugee. Honestly, I'd actually advocate Europe opening it's borders to these refugees, especially if it's gonna accept refugees from Syria et al.

Completely agreed. Such a move would both Western Russia and increase Europe's human capital. And also look great for public relations purposes. And not to mention save up to a lot of lives.

 

[Batrix2070]

Good on Kazakhstan for accepting refugees. And make no mistake, running from the slavery and possible death that is conscription ought to qualify one as a refugee. Honestly, I'd actually advocate Europe opening it's borders to these refugees, especially if it's gonna accept refugees from Syria et al.

That's why it's fortunate that no one follows your line of thinking.
Russians are Russians, thanks to the Soviets they have learned doublethink, by which they will escape conscription while continuing to support Putin's vision and great Russia.
Only a moron, with apologies, would accept the Russians now,
And as for your view that conscription is slavery, it's easy for someone from a country defended by a large body of water to say so or by neighbors who, in the event of war, will provide a threshold for dismissal. When there is no such obstacle, it turns out that sometimes it's better for conscription to be there than to cling to impractical ideals.

Completely agreed. Such a move would both Western Russia and increase Europe's human capital. And also look great for public relations purposes. And not to mention save up to a lot of lives.

Great in theory, in practice you allow the Russians to once again act like the cowards they actually are. They are afraid of their power and of standing up against it. So they will run away.
These guys should be locked up in Russia and confronted with the fact, either help yourselves, or die at the front from your own stupidity because after all, Great Russia.
This is the price of your election, it is dishonest to let them avoid paying for it.

 

[WolfBear]

That's why it's fortunate that no one follows your line of thinking.
Russians are Russians, thanks to the Soviets they have learned doublethink, by which they will escape conscription while continuing to support Putin's vision and great Russia.
Only a moron, with apologies, would accept the Russians now,
And as for your view that conscription is slavery, it's easy for someone from a country defended by a large body of water to say so or by neighbors who, in the event of war, will provide a threshold for dismissal. When there is no such obstacle, it turns out that sometimes it's better for conscription to be there than to cling to impractical ideals.

Great in theory, in practice you allow the Russians to once again act like the cowards they actually are. They are afraid of their power and of standing up against it. So they will run away.
These guys should be locked up in Russia and confronted with the fact, either help yourselves, or die at the front from your own stupidity because after all, Great Russia.
This is the price of your election, it is dishonest to let them avoid paying for it.

TBF, when Russians voted for Putin, they did not expect this. And not all Russians actually voted for Putin.

 

[Batrix2070]

TBF, when Russians voted for Putin, they did not expect this. And not all Russians actually voted for Putin.

Well, yes they didn't vote the problem is that compulsory and sizable conscription was still a decade ago.
This was to be expected.

 

[WolfBear]

Well, yes they didn't vote the problem is that compulsory and sizable conscription was still a decade ago.
This was to be expected.

Didn't Russia always have conscription?

 

[Marduk]

Good on Kazakhstan for accepting refugees. And make no mistake, running from the slavery and possible death that is conscription ought to qualify one as a refugee. Honestly, I'd actually advocate Europe opening it's borders to these refugees, especially if it's gonna accept refugees from Syria et al.

IMHO that would be thoughtless. They aren't refugees really as they aren't being persecuted for certain characteristics. Hell, some even support the war, just don't wanna be the cannon fodder in it.
It would also be unfair to give them the generous western refugee treatment when actual Russian opposition is tortured in prisons and Ukrainian civilians have to contend with blackouts, shellings and shitty economic conditions.
What did they do to deserve a free vacation in Europe?
A more reasonable humane compromise would be to intern them until the end of war and make them perform community service. As a bonus that solves the sleeper agent\provocateur\saboteur risk too, something particularly affecting the border countries that support Ukraine.
Unless they volunteer to join the Freedom of Russia Legion in Ukraine.

 

[Batrix2070]

Didn't Russia always have conscription?

It is necessary to what you mean by conscription, until the Crimean War conscription in Russia was in fact a roundup of random people from the village or city.
BTW that is just like now in Russia.
A detachment comes in and takes them for itself, only after the Crimean War was this system embraced to cards and compulsory summonses.
So there it was, and it lasted in one form or another until the Putin years of Russia 2007-2012 when the de facto conscription was abandoned, in favor of taking only a portion for training, usually one/third of the normal conscription. Now they are desperately going back to the old conscription but, because of the wrecking of everything they could and the Russian mess, they are again holding roundups like in old Tsarist Russia.

 

[Abhorsen]

That's why it's fortunate that no one follows your line of thinking.
Russians are Russians, thanks to the Soviets they have learned doublethink, by which they will escape conscription while continuing to support Putin's vision and great Russia.
Only a moron, with apologies, would accept the Russians now,

Yes, all Russians are the same. Great argument. And the ones fleeing slavery are all gonna praise Putin. Also great argument.

Meanwhile, if you want to oppose Putin, this is one of the best tactics the West has. It directly robs Putin of a soldier, so it's about as good as a death in training. This means that Putin has to either take the manpower loss or conscript more, which leads to even more domestic political problems (support for the war dropped under 50% with conscription) and also problems with production, as people who were working in Russia no longer are.

And as for your view that conscription is slavery, it's easy for someone from a country defended by a large body of water to say so or by neighbors who, in the event of war, will provide a threshold for dismissal. When there is no such obstacle, it turns out that sometimes it's better for conscription to be there than to cling to impractical ideals.

Okay, what do we call nonconsensual labor? Slavery. What happens if you don't report for duty (i.e. don't consent)? You are arrested, and possibly killed.

It's slavery, simple as. Now maybe one can justify slavery saying that mass slavery is better than some other horror. South Korea, Israel, and maybe, maybe Ukraine right now are the only countries that can have a chance at making that argument (remember, a lack of conscription means a volunteer force, not no army). But that's still slavery, and still evil, even if it's a necessary one.

IMHO that would be thoughtless. They aren't refugees really as they aren't being persecuted for certain characteristics. Hell, some even support the war, just don't wanna be the cannon fodder in it.
It would also be unfair to give them the generous western refugee treatment when actual Russian opposition is tortured in prisons and Ukrainian civilians have to contend with blackouts, shellings and shitty economic conditions.
A more reasonable humane compromise would be to intern them until the end of war and made to perform community service.
Unless they volunteer to join the Freedom of Russia Legion in Ukraine.

Oh, so sentence people freeing from slavery to a nicer slavery? How kind. And yeah, they facing political prosecution in their home country for opposition to the war (if they won't sign a statement saying that, then yeah, probably best not to accept them. But the statement itself is important even if they are lying).

Look, I don't believe there should ever be any government refugee handouts (or any handouts, for that matter). But they should be allowed to live in the first country they can escape to on a temporary visa (in this case, admittedly, it's likely a permanent visa), with the option of that first country they get in sending them to another accepting country. Basically, refugees shouldn't get to be picky or get free stuff other than getting into some other safe country.

 

[Marduk]

Oh, so sentence people freeing from slavery to a nicer slavery? How kind. And yeah, they facing political prosecution in their home country for opposition to the war (if they won't sign a statement saying that, then yeah, probably best not to accept them. But the statement itself is important even if they are lying).

If any country wants to make other immigration arrangements with them, they should be allowed to leave there. It's not slavery, it's still a favor, they are free to leave the country and they don't get shot at. But they don't deserve the many legal and economic perks that come bundled with refugee status.
Also as would-be conscripted soldiers internment is not so out of the norm for them, as that's the normal treatment for ordinary soldiers ending up in a third party country during a war.

Look, I don't believe there should ever be any government refugee handouts (or any handouts, for that matter). But they should be allowed to live in the first country they can escape to on a temporary visa (in this case, admittedly, it's likely a permanent visa), with the option of that first country they get in sending them to another accepting country. Basically, refugees shouldn't get to be picky or get free stuff other than getting into some other safe country.

Well then that's no longer refugee status in the understanding of western legal systems.
And then there is the very real risk of SVR or independent assholes coming with the wave and then using their presence in western countries to infiltrate into places, cause incidents regarding Ukrainian refugees or western support for Ukraine, or outright blow shit up like some "tourists" did in Bulgaria and Czechia, because let's be honest, with the numbers involved there's no way to have effective counter-intelligence supervision of even a fraction of them.

 

[Batrix2070]

Meanwhile, if you want to oppose Putin, this is one of the best tactics the West has. It directly robs Putin of a soldier, so it's about as good as a death in training. This means that Putin has to either take the manpower loss or conscript more, which leads to even more domestic political problems (support for the war dropped under 50% with conscription) and also problems with production, as people who were working in Russia no longer are.

It's also the same tactic that makes it possible for anyone with bad intentions to use the West's naivete against itself. Besides, how is a revolt supposed to be generated as those who are most likely to have the ability to resist, because after all, going abroad so quickly means they have both the money and the connections to do so, flee?
Those who stay will just do the typical Russian, and well life what will you do? You will do nothing. So in this way you allow Putin to defuse the tension because those who might oppose him have just fled so he can portray them as cowards and so on.

Okay, what do we call nonconsensual labor? Slavery. What happens if you don't report for duty (i.e. don't consent)? You are arrested, and possibly killed.

I understand that for Libertarians there is no such thing as an obligation to the community for you have the right to live there, make a living and so on.
But not every form of coercion is slavery, just obvious duties for what the state gives you, such as law enforcement services guarding the peace.
But as I say, it's easy to talk about freedom from obligation when you sit comfortably away.
There was a country that failed to enforce conscription, the descendants of its inhabitants still reproach themselves for it today.

 

[Abhorsen]

It's also the same tactic that makes it possible for anyone with bad intentions to use the West's naivete against itself. Besides, how is a revolt supposed to be generated as those who are most likely to have the ability to resist, because after all, going abroad so quickly means they have both the money and the connections to do so, flee?
Those who stay will just do the typical Russian, and well life what will you do? You will do nothing. So in this way you allow Putin to defuse the tension because those who might oppose him have just fled so he can portray them as cowards and so on.

Oh, so now you are arguing that importing Russians would instead give a large anti-Putin block to European countries? That seems to also be a good thing. This actually tracks with history, for example Cuban refugees still being very anti-communist, etc.

I doubt it will stabilize his regime enough to deal with the greater mobilization either, and also if a large number do leave such a large amount of lost human capital will have catastrophic impacts on Russia's economy.

I understand that for Libertarians there is no such thing as an obligation to the community for you have the right to live there, make a living and so on.
But not every form of coercion is slavery, just obvious duties for what the state gives you, such as law enforcement services guarding the peace.
But as I say, it's easy to talk about freedom from obligation when you sit comfortably away.
There was a country that failed to enforce conscription, the descendants of its inhabitants still reproach themselves for it today.

Yeah, all I'm reading is arguments for slavery here. You have no argument that this isn't slavery. You can call it an obligation all you like, what it is is slavery. Let's not pretty up evils, even necessary ones, with euphamisms.

Next, note that I literally pointed out that it could possibly be justified in rare cases. But to pretend that enslaving people to invade a foreign country is justified is moronic.

If any country wants to make other immigration arrangements with them, they should be allowed to leave there. It's not slavery, it's still a favor, they are free to leave the country and they don't get shot at. But they don't deserve the many legal and economic perks that come bundled with refugee status.
Also as would-be conscripted soldiers internment is not so out of the norm for them, as that's the normal treatment for ordinary soldiers ending up in a third party country during a war.

Again, I point out that I'm not advocating for them to get any economic/legal perks other than being allowed access. And yeah, the internment part against their will, and being required to work? That makes it slavery, or at best way to close to it ("come here and be forced to work for free, or be enslaved there instead" ain't much different than just straight up enslavement).

Well then that's no longer refugee status in the understanding of western legal systems.

Which is why they ought to be considered refugees (as I originally said), because that system not considering them as refugees frankly sucks.

And then there is the very real risk of SVR or independent assholes coming with the wave and then using their presence in western countries to infiltrate into places, cause incidents regarding Ukrainian refugees or western support for Ukraine, or outright blow shit up like some "tourists" did in Bulgaria and Czechia, because let's be honest, with the numbers involved there's no way to have effective counter-intelligence supervision of even a fraction of them.

Given that rich ones can already easily get into the EU for tourism still, I doubt that there will be much difference in Russia's ability to penetrate foreign countries. And if they cause incidents, return them to Russia.

 

[Marduk]

Again, I point out that I'm not advocating for them to get any economic/legal perks other than being allowed access. And yeah, the internment part against their will, and being required to work? That makes it slavery, or at best way to close to it ("come here and be forced to work for free, or be enslaved there instead" ain't much different than just straight up enslavement).

Many soldiers during WW2, French, Polish, British, German, and many others, in various neutral or neutral-ish countries, sometimes for years, don't make it sound like some kind of exceptional oppression. If they don't like it, they can go elsewhere or don't go anywhere risk conscription.
It makes more sense than turning the draft into some kind of an unlimited western green card giveaway.
The only thing that would make it more ridiculous is that if this was done, some third world el presidentes may decide to have a wink wink mobilization of their own to get the local poor a free ticket to fuck off exactly where they dream of fucking off to.

Which is why they ought to be considered refugees (as I originally said), because that system not considering them as refugees frankly sucks.

Considering them refugees sucks for western countries who ultimately have a right to put own interests above those of some foreigners, from a hostile country at that, and it's spitting in the faces of Ukrainians who don't get to be refugees in the western welfare states by whatever circumstances.

That's why something much less generous should be offered, if anything.

Given that rich ones can already easily get into the EU for tourism still, I doubt that there will be much difference in Russia's ability to penetrate foreign countries. And if they cause incidents, return them to Russia.

Those who aren't in the West already have a very hard time getting into the EU, and it's getting harder month by month.
That may be the last direct route to EU closed:

Finland to join European neighbours in shutting out Russian tourists

Finland said on Thursday it would close its border to Russian tourists at midnight, shutting off the last remaining direct land route to the European Union for them as thousands of Russians seek to avoid conscription into the war in Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

There aren't that many rich Russians, it's harder to mix in FSB agents among them, and they are particularly unwilling to risk prison over this. You're not gonna find hundreds of thousands of rich Russian tourists willing and able to jump through all these hoops, but random men more or less qualified for conscription willing to take their chances for free vacation as a refugee, easy.
And "return them to Russia" is not going to undo the damage done in any remotely serious incidents. Especially with cases that may well be greeted with a medal for a job well done.

 

[Tiamat]

To add a (much needed) bit of humor to the whole mess...




I mean honestly, I wouldn't say "no" to any of them. Then again...

EDIT: I honestly don't really get the nursemaid outfits. Nope, not sexy at all.

 

[Urabrask Revealed]

EDIT: I honestly don't really get the nursemaid outfits. Nope, not sexy at all.

Sometimes a little less is a lot more.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Just remember... What are five Tweets compared to the mobilization of hundreds of thousands...

One Regiment Supposedly Only Has it's Commander As the Cadre. Rest of troops are Mobilized.



Grand Theft Auto Belgorod



Ukrainian Civilians Generously Offering Food to Russian POW's While the Guards Look Away.

Oh wait no it's Russian Civilians Sneaking Food to their Mobilized Loved Ones While the Commanders Aren't Looking.



Tanks, Trucks and Helmets aren't the only things from the Sixties Being Issued Now...



When it comes to dedication to the Slavic Alliance, Tuvams are the GOAT. 🐐

 

[History Learner]

Ukrainian channels that might be offering actual information that are available to the public have been completely silent outside of the occasional picture taken and posted in a newly liberated town/city.

So we can safely deduce we have found another thing you are really bad about lying.

So try again.

You're really bad at this; do better.

legitimniy
rezident_ua