That would be a full on act of war against N.A.T.O, so no, they aren't going to do that.
Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)
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That would be a full on act of war against N.A.T.O, so no, they aren't going to do that.
LordsFire
Internet Wizard
Going to chime in here.
If Russia starts trying to shoot down NATO satellites, that isn't just an act of war, that is a 'most egregious possible' level of act of war.
Why?
Because military satellites are an integral part of nuclear early-warning systems, which means that any attempt to degrade satellite capabilities can and should be interpreted as a potential prelude to launching long-range nuclear weapons.
If Russia tries to shoot down satellites, NATO must respond. And given the current political climate, both sides of the political aisle in the US and much of Europe would support kicking some Russian ass.
Interesting approach. But still, fucking over the Ukrainian people like that should severely ruin Germany's relations with other Western countries in this TL. Unless the entire West (or at least most of it) will come to believe that Ukraine was a lost cause, similar to Afghanistan. And even there, the Taliban government still isn't recognized by anyone over a year later.
That makes sense. Such a move would, of course, be perceived as a stab-in-the-back similar to Teschen 1938, though that specific takeover was bloodless, so a bit less hurt feelings.
Was or wasn't, in that scenario it would have been definitely lost, and no way to reverse that, while money is being wasted by not normalizing relations with Russia and Russia run Ukraine. Hell, the situation in Belarus may have been an incidental test of western reaction, and the result was, that it Russia violently quells a democratic movement in one of it's satellites, the West will just whine a lot, add a few sanctions, and do nothing meaningful - so they can live with that.
Let's be honest, holding Afghanistan is not important to the West in any way, once you scratch through the dramatics about women's rights and Afghans being poor.
It was just a drain, a contractor grift, and PR sore for many US administrations.
It would be, but the victim would not be available to complain.
planefag
A Flying Bundle of Sticks
Given that in that time the southern front has all but collapsed, I am guessing not.
The Ukrainian state wouldn't, but the Ukrainian people will be.
Carrot of Truth
War is Peace
I wonder what the odds of Zelensky becoming a dictator post war are? Ukraine is definitely going to be a clusterfuck after this ends, Especially when you consider how many different groups who don't like each other are now armed and experienced.
Actually, Ukraine right now is most likely more united than it ever was. Seriously.
Carrot of Truth
War is Peace
For the moment its united but after the war things might turn pretty nasty.
I doubt it. At least not if Western aid money and Russian reparations money will be flowing in huge amounts and won't get stolen by corrupt Sovoks.
Carrot of Truth
War is Peace
Russian reparations are almost certainly not going to happen, Western aid is also another suspect thing especially from the US.
The Russian reparations money will come from Russian oligarchs' seized assets.
No.for soviet mind it was welcoming him to aggresion.That is why polish secret services dude,who contacted Sumliński,belive that USA provoken Moscov attack lifting sanction on NS2.
I think,that he is wrong,current USA is simply ruled by morons.No need for conspiracy theories there.
And,after few months,reopen that again.REMEMBER - GERMANS ARE MOSCOV ALLIES.
If he is kgb agent and contacted his owners,they could kill him.Well,i warned him.
Tyzuris
Primarch to your glory& the glory of him on Earth!
It'll be a hard time for Russian forces for the rest of this year because apparently the freshly mobilized meat shields will be available to use by January at the soonest AFAIK.
So in the meanwhile Russian fronts will keep collapsing and Ukraine reclaiming back huge swathes of their country. And even after the meat shields arrive, poorly trained and equipped meat shields will not tip the scales of this war against competent, battle-hardened and very motivated Ukrainian Armed Forces. So all the mobilized meat shields will just serve as a speedbump and a way to stretch Ukrainian logistics by making them waste a lot more ammo. But eventually they will also be ran over by Ukrainian Armed Forces in Ukraine's path to victory.
Plus given how Russia fucked up logistics for the 190000 soldiers they sent in in the first place, all I can see happening after sending in 300000 freshly mobilized poorly trained meat shields is that it'll fuck up Russian logistics even further when suddenly their support network gets a lot more strain.
But I guess Putin has to try to use every possible way to at least delay his utter defeat and humiliation in order to avoid getting assassinated by some rival force.
So in the meanwhile Russian fronts will keep collapsing and Ukraine reclaiming back huge swathes of their country. And even after the meat shields arrive, poorly trained and equipped meat shields will not tip the scales of this war against competent, battle-hardened and very motivated Ukrainian Armed Forces. So all the mobilized meat shields will just serve as a speedbump and a way to stretch Ukrainian logistics by making them waste a lot more ammo. But eventually they will also be ran over by Ukrainian Armed Forces in Ukraine's path to victory.
Plus given how Russia fucked up logistics for the 190000 soldiers they sent in in the first place, all I can see happening after sending in 300000 freshly mobilized poorly trained meat shields is that it'll fuck up Russian logistics even further when suddenly their support network gets a lot more strain.
But I guess Putin has to try to use every possible way to at least delay his utter defeat and humiliation in order to avoid getting assassinated by some rival force.
That would imply they plan on giving them real training
Tyzuris
Primarch to your glory& the glory of him on Earth!
Yeah and even two to three months is not enough to train someone to be an effective soldier capable of operating as a part of a cohesive unit and performing combined arms warfare (and let's not even mention cooperation between different branches of military).That would imply they plan on giving them real training
In Finnish military the first two months are just reserved for teaching the very basics of soldiering. After that there are two more training phases. The second one includes training each soldier to their dedicated task (like let's say infantry, combat engineer, artillery operator) and training each unit to work together. The third phase then trains different types of units like artillery, infantry, combat engineers, etc... to work together in combined arms warfare with the other branches of the military culminating in a two-week long ''final war'' - exercise where all the branches and units train in a combined arms warfare simulation exercise where some play the role of aggressor and some the role of defender.
And this takes at minimum half a year for crew, nine months for specialist and more demanding roles like combat medics, etc... and a year for NCOs and officers alike.
Tyzuris
Primarch to your glory& the glory of him on Earth!
Yeah. This whole Russian shtick of just grabbing any active servicemember from their trained job and just giving them a tank with pisspoor training / giving them a rifle and redesignating them as infantry and giving them orders to go and attack is straight out of clownworld. This really highlights why in terms of professionalism, competency, etc... - wise Russian military falls a lightyear behind US, Canadian and other European militaries.
Tiamat
I've seen the future...
One suspects a lot of Finns, along with the ghost of Simo Hayha, are pointing and laughing right now.
Tyzuris
Primarch to your glory& the glory of him on Earth!
With the way Ukrainians have momentum now and Russians fleeing and seeing their fronts collapse, I can believe that at the very least by the end of the year Kherson Oblast, Zaporizhia Oblast and Luhanks oblast will have been liberated and reclaimed. Leaving only the Donetsk Oblast and Crimea left to reclaim next year.