Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[Arch Dornan]

Targeting and intelligence have been provided from the get go, so that's no escalation. Different types of equipment being sent to meet evolving needs is no escalation of involvement either. The idea of "deniable assets" as volunteers or reinforcements is laughable and entirely unsupported.

You would deny the same thing back in Vietnam with that spirit.

 

[Megadeath]

You would deny the same thing back in Vietnam with that spirit.

So, in a totally different conflict half a century ago something happened so it's inevitable in this one? It wouldn't have been possible to deny it in Vietnam because it was quite obviously happening. Conversely it's quite easy to deny in this conflict as there's absolutely no evidence for it.

 

[Arch Dornan]

So, in a totally different conflict half a century ago something happened so it's inevitable in this one? It wouldn't have been possible to deny it in Vietnam because it was quite obviously happening. Conversely it's quite easy to deny in this conflict as there's absolutely no evidence for it.

What happened before can happen again. It's even easier to see it with social media because both sides love to share their exploits on telegram.

 

[History Learner]

European Commission explains its mistake regarding allegedly 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed

The European Commission admitted the mistake regarding the figures of the losses of the Ukrainian military, which allegedly amounted to 100,000 people killed, as Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the European Commission, announced on 30 November.

news.yahoo.com

Seems like the odd casualty figures with badly translated labeling repeated by Milley finally have arrived to the EU admin and had to be explained as such.
So the new official claim is 100k Ukrainian soldiers *dead or injured*, and "over 20k" civilians likewise.

You can't blame bad translation when it was included in the original written remarks and she was speaking in English in the video:

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has brought death, devastation and unspeakable suffering.​

​

We all remember the horrors of Bucha.​

​

It is estimated that more than 20,000 civilians and 100,000 Ukrainian military officers have been killed so far.​

​

First, Russia must pay for its horrific crimes, including for its crime of aggression against a sovereign state.​

 

[Megadeath]

What happened before can happen again. It's even easier to see it with social media because both sides love to share their exploits on telegram.

Uh huh, of course it can. That doesn't mean it will. By your logic, we might as well claim that a communist revolution in Russia is the likely outcome because it happened to them in WW1. Or say that both sides will inevitably resort to mass chemical weapon strikes on the front, as that happened in previous wars. Or that Russia will sail their pacific fleet units around the world to try and bring them home, but along the way they'll get confused and maul themselves in a battle with British fishing boats. After all, it has happened before. It could happen again.

 

[Arch Dornan]

Uh huh, of course it can. That doesn't mean it will. By your logic, we might as well claim that a communist revolution in Russia is the likely outcome because it happened to them in WW1. Or say that both sides will inevitably resort to mass chemical weapon strikes on the front, as that happened in previous wars. Or that Russia will sail their pacific fleet units around the world to try and bring them home, but along the way they'll get confused and maul themselves in a battle with British fishing boats. After all, it has happened before. It could happen again.

Those are from world wars.

This is a proxy one. Deniable assets are part and parcel to deny any boots on the ground.

 

[Megadeath]

Those are from world wars.

This is a proxy one. Deniable assets are part and parcel to deny any boots on the ground.

You can't really directly correlate this war to previous proxy conflicts any more than you can to prior direct confrontations, as Russia themselves are the primary belligerent. The cost/risk to benefit analysis is fundamentally different from any previous conflict so saying "It happened this way in the past." is almost meaningless.

 

[Arch Dornan]

You can't really directly correlate this war to previous proxy conflicts any more than you can to prior direct confrontations, as Russia themselves are the primary belligerent. The cost/risk to benefit analysis is fundamentally different from any previous conflict so saying "It happened this way in the past." is almost meaningless.

No it's not. The tools of the trade playing proxy war dictates how both sides will respond with what they have and they did.

 

[Megadeath]

No it's not. The tools of the trade playing proxy war dictates how both sides will respond with what they have and they did.

Could you rephrase that? It's borderline incomprehensible.

 

[Arch Dornan]

Could you rephrase that? It's borderline incomprehensible.

Lol I'll humor you.

People like us used to get drafted and kill each other because we are told to do so by our leaders.

It stopped working as much because many of us like to live and enjoy life rather than die in a shithole the appeal to patriotic duty is failing to get us marching into recruitment offices.

Nonetheless after the Korean war, Cuban missile crisis and Vietnam it became clear using nukes is a no no out of the risk of nuclear armageddon so this is where proxy warfare using third parties to do the fighting started and people started to object to being drafted to die in a third world country or commit warcrimes there.

However relying on third parties with everything risks secrets too sensitive to be leaked by accident. In comes deniable assets but reliable for the job from those still dedicated to fighting for the cause. Special forces, covert ops glowies, more arms trafficking etc.

 

[Megadeath]

Lol I'll humor you.

People like us used to get drafted and kill each other because we are told to do so by our leaders.

It stopped working as much because many of us like to live and enjoy life rather than die in a shithole the appeal to patriotic duty is failing to get us marching into recruitment offices.

Nonetheless after the Korean war, Cuban missile crisis and Vietnam it became clear using nukes is a no no out of the risk of nuclear armageddon so this is where proxy warfare using third parties to do the fighting started and people started to object to being drafted to die in a third world country or commit warcrimes there.

However relying on third parties with everything risks secrets too sensitive to be leaked by accident. In comes deniable assets but reliable for the job from those still dedicated to fighting for the cause. Special forces, covert ops glowies, more arms trafficking etc.

Okay... I can pretend I learned something from that. But, so what? That doesn't address that this isn't a proxy war like any that's come before. Russia are a main combatant. Having a squad of marines who all just decided to go AWOL together with their equipment show up fighting as volunteers there is fundamentally different in terms of risk, threat and benefit from in any previous war you could point to. The size and scope of the conflict is such that it's not possible to send a number of "deniable" operators such that the number is large enough to make a difference but also small enough to be hidden.

This war is like none other before, making all the comparisons and assumptions into a blind guessing game.

 

[Arch Dornan]

Okay... I can pretend I learned something from that. But, so what? That doesn't address that this isn't a proxy war like any that's come before. Russia are a main combatant. Having a squad of marines who all just decided to go AWOL together with their equipment show up fighting as volunteers there is fundamentally different in terms of risk, threat and benefit from in any previous war you could point to. The size and scope of the conflict is such that it's not possible to send a number of "deniable" operators such that the number is large enough to make a difference but also small enough to be hidden.

This war is like none other before, making all the comparisons and assumptions into a blind guessing game.

It is one? Country sends soldiers for reasons including taking control. The country getting attacked is recieving aid and more covert assistance.

That's been done plenty of times in past when we only knew to kill each other with swords and spears.

 

[Megadeath]

It is one? Country sends soldiers for reasons including taking control. The country getting attacked is recieving aid and more covert assistance.

That's been done plenty of times in past when we only knew to kill each other with swords and spears.

For one thing, you're taking as a given the element that we're disputing. For another, that's such a vague and wishy-washy definition that it can apply to pretty much any armed conflict ever.

 

[Arch Dornan]

For one thing, you're taking as a given the element that we're disputing. For another, that's such a vague and wishy-washy definition that it can apply to pretty much any armed conflict ever.

You're as wishy washy going deny deny deny.

 

[Marduk]

You can't blame bad translation when it was included in the original written remarks and she was speaking in English in the video:

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has brought death, devastation and unspeakable suffering.​

​

We all remember the horrors of Bucha.​

​

It is estimated that more than 20,000 civilians and 100,000 Ukrainian military officers have been killed so far.​

​

First, Russia must pay for its horrific crimes, including for its crime of aggression against a sovereign state.​

Really? And where do you think she got the figure (aka the "external sources" in the correction), and in what language?
Chances are she didn't translate it and proceed to write the speech herself.

Ukraine anger over von der Leyen's unverified "100,000 dead soldiers" claim

Russian state media seized on the high figure, which the European Commission has since explained refers to troops both killed and injured.

www.newsweek.com

Ukraine has denied these figures and a EC representative has posted a correction that this was referring to casualties, not dead, the hell more do you want?

What i think most likely happened, is that she was using some German or Ukrainian media source for that figure, but whoever was writing her speech or points for it didn't notice the nuance between killed vs casualties and went with killed.

 

[Zachowon]

You're as wishy washy going deny deny deny.

Because unlike Vietnam, there is mass amounts of footage for this conflict.
There is also the fact that the US deniable assets aka Academy, are not like Wagner and not the kind to want to do a force on force conflict. It is a PMC, not a literal military.
What are being sent are people to make sure equipment is transfered properly.
That's it.
The US DOES NOT WANT TO RISK NUCLEAR ESCALTION due to soldiers being in Ukraine outside if very VERY open channels like this situation.
Russia knows even attacking the US Embassy could lead to war, and know how trigger happy NATO members can be should war happen.

US wants Ukraine to win without having to have US Service Members die

 

[Arch Dornan]

Because unlike Vietnam, there is mass amounts of footage for this conflict.
There is also the fact that the US deniable assets aka Academy, are not like Wagner and not the kind to want to do a force on force conflict. It is a PMC, not a literal military.
What are being sent are people to make sure equipment is transfered properly.
That's it.
The US DOES NOT WANT TO RISK NUCLEAR ESCALTION due to soldiers being in Ukraine outside if very VERY open channels like this situation.
Russia knows even attacking the US Embassy could lead to war, and know how trigger happy NATO members can be should war happen.

US wants Ukraine to win without having to have US Service Members die

That's what they say officially.

Deniable assets are deniable for a reason.

 

[Megadeath]

You're as wishy washy going deny deny deny.

Uh, I don't think you know what wishy-washy means? It doesn't make sense to say that I'm being such, and then point out that I'm being pretty consistent. That said, at this point, I'm not even denying it. You're making a paranoid prediction based on basically nothing. There's basically no reason to believe it will happen as you claim, even less evidence that it is happening, and very strong arguments against the idea that it would. You haven't really responded to counter anything I've actually said, just kept insisting that it like totally could and is basically inevitable for nebulous reasons.

I might as well "deny" that Russia are planning to invade India, or that the whole war is a brilliant ruse orchestrated by Musk to advertise star link. There's nothing to argue with beyond the assertion.

 

[Arch Dornan]

Uh, I don't think you know what wishy-washy means? It doesn't make sense to say that I'm being such, and then point out that I'm being pretty consistent. That said, at this point, I'm not even denying it. You're making a paranoid prediction based on basically nothing. There's basically no reason to believe it will happen as you claim, even less evidence that it is happening, and very strong arguments against the idea that it would. You haven't really responded to counter anything I've actually said, just kept insisting that it like totally could and is basically inevitable for nebulous reasons.

I might as well "deny" that Russia are planning to invade India, or that the whole war is a brilliant ruse orchestrated by Musk to advertise star link. There's nothing to argue with beyond the assertion.

You're denying deniable assets are already in Ukraine. They are.

 

[Zachowon]

That's what they say officially.

Deniable assets are deniable for a reason.

That isn't how deniable assets work....
Wagner is a deniable asset as seen in Syira when they got humiliated by the US