If there's no Vietnam War, could there be some future war that would become a Vietnam equivalent for the US? If so, where?

raharris1973

Well-known member
Had Nixon won in 1960, he might have very well followed up on the Bay of Pigs with a US ground invasion of Cuba. Would the Soviet Union really be willing to risk WWIII over this?

Maybe not then at that time time, but in later periods, it becomes an issue. Hence, not a good candidate for a substitute Vietnam. Around time of Bay of Pigs, a US intervention won't be nearly hard or long or lost as Vietnam, even if its not exactly easy or uncontroversial. From the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis on, it wouldn't be a Vietnam either, but instead the kickoff of a larger world war.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Maybe not then at that time time, but in later periods, it becomes an issue. Hence, not a good candidate for a substitute Vietnam. Around time of Bay of Pigs, a US intervention won't be nearly hard or long or lost as Vietnam, even if its not exactly easy or uncontroversial. From the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis on, it wouldn't be a Vietnam either, but instead the kickoff of a larger world war.

What about Angola?
 

raharris1973

Well-known member
What about Angola?

Well, here is what you have to ask yourself about whether any candidate future war would become an equivalent for the US's Vietnam War, if there was no US Vietnam War. This would apply to the Angola situation, as well as any other.

Why would the US intervene in this other country (that it did not in OTL) with ground forces, including draftees, over a long a period?

If the United States did so would progress/victory seem elusive? Would the cause seem morally controversial? Would there be domestic youth and elite dissent and division over the worthiness of the war?
Why or why not?

The answers to those questions, in the case of, for example, an Angola War (mid-70s), tell you whether that would be a Vietnam equivalent or not.

You can apply the same set of questions to other possibilities like - would an intervention in the Nicaraguan revolution in the 1970s become a Vietnam equivalent? Would an intervention in the Iranian revolution, or hostage crisis, in the 1970s or 1980 become a Vietnam equivalent? Would the intervention in the Lebanese Civil War become a Vietnam equivalent?

If you want to look for examples starting earlier, you could ask if intervention in South Yemen and the Aden Emergency (late 1960s) could have become a Vietnam equivalent, or as you suggested intervention in Ethiopia against the Dergue (1970s) , or intervention against Sukarno's Indonesia, and in favor of Malaysia, in the Konfrontasi (mid-1960s) could have become a Vietnam equivalent.

Personally, I tend to think of US direct involvement in the Indonesian-Malaysian Konfrontasi, or on the Arabian peninsula in the Aden Emergency against the emergence of Communist South Yemen in the 1960s, or intervention in Oman against the Dhofar rebellion in the 1970s would be highly unlikely and unusual, simply because the US tended to see those areas at those times as being in the British (& Commonwealth) sphere or the sphere of local client states like Iran and Saudi Arabia, not traditional areas of US deployment.

Since US intervention is unlikely overall, a Vietnam equivalent wouldn't be possible there. In any case the "western" or anti-left side won there in all cases except South Yemen 1967, and the world yawned and barely noticed the latter.

The Horn of Africa does not seem suitable to me for direct intervention by US forces. The US would be disappointed by the Marxist coup against Haile Selassie in Ethiopia, but surprised by it, and wouldn't have any usable tools to intervene as Ethiopia turns to Cuban and Soviet aid except to try to covertly contact and bribe some junta members and hope power struggles go their way. There's no rationale for up and invading Ethiopia. The US can go ahead and do what it did in OTL and begin to generously fund Somalia for proxy fighting against Ethiopia, if, like OTL, Somalia ditches its former Soviet bloc ties.

Angola - The US will probably at first regard Holden Roberto's FNLA faction, based in the north, which received Zairean support, as the least unacceptable. From the 60s through early 1970s, while the MPLA was getting Cuban and Soviet support Jonas Savimbi's UNITA was getting Chinese and North Korean support. By 1975 it was getting South African support.

A lot of US administrations (not all, very conservative Republican administrations would not mind) would be very wary of a public policy of sending US troops to side with either Portugal in Angola or siding with a faction seen as being allied to South Africa, for domestic political reasons. But foreign policy hawks will be advocates of sending in troops to "arrest" the Cuban troops who are daring to intervene.

If the US government side picks a faction, there is a high chance that the black American community does not embrace it as a representative one and regards that faction as Uncle Toms, so interconnections with internal racial issues still may override ideological/geopolitical motives to intervene directly. But maybe not.

How would a US intervention in Nicaragua go? Well I don't think it could be a Vietnam. Somoza and his family would be a horribly embarrassing ally. The US could be tempted to give them the Diem family treatment, but the Nicaraguan national guard, with full indirect US support, and certainly with US troops, could keep the Sandinistas from taking power over the country, with knock-on effects for other rebel movements in Central America.

If, like in OTL, the US is intervening, 'peacekeeping' in the Lebanese civil war, trying to boost up the Gemayel government, escorting the PLO out, trying to keep Lebanon out of pro-Soviet Syrian clutches, Syrian-Iranian backed terror groups may strike at the US presence.

In the ATL, without the Vietnam war experience, blowing up the US embassy and marine barracks would *not* cause the US leadership to turn tail, the US would be more likely to double-down on peacekeeping and nation-building in Lebanon, with uncertain long-term results.
 
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raharris1973

Well-known member
Well @WolfBear, @Agent23, @Skallagrim, @sillygoose, @Val the Moofia Boss - Considering what I outlined in post #23 - imagine the US gets to skip the Vietnam war or Indochina War. How it does is not important. I calculated the most likely next occasions for a similar style of involvement would be Nicaragua at the end of the 1970s or Lebanon in the 1980s.

How would either of those go. Or would any of the other alternatives I rated less likely for (reasons) go? Like Angola, Yemen, Konfrontasi, Horn of Africa
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Well @WolfBear, @Agent23, @Skallagrim, @sillygoose, @Val the Moofia Boss - Considering what I outlined in post #23 - imagine the US gets to skip the Vietnam war or Indochina War. How it does is not important. I calculated the most likely next occasions for a similar style of involvement would be Nicaragua at the end of the 1970s or Lebanon in the 1980s.

How would either of those go. Or would any of the other alternatives I rated less likely for (reasons) go? Like Angola, Yemen, Konfrontasi, Horn of Africa

Both Nicaragua and Lebanon should be much easier for the US to handle since they have a much smaller area and population relative to Vietnam.
 

raharris1973

Well-known member
Both Nicaragua and Lebanon should be much easier for the US to handle since they have a much smaller area and population relative to Vietnam.

What will enemy efforts and coalitions look like? In Lebanon, are both Iran and the USSR and Syrians supporting groups against the USA? What magnitude of US casualties would we be looking at and for how long? What potential for escalation would there be to bordering nations? Would there be any anti-war or anti-draft protest movements of any significance?

How do postwar settlements in Nicaragua and Lebanon look?

Knock-on effects for neighboring countries in Central America (El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica), and the Middle East (Syria, Israel, Jordan)?
 

raharris1973

Well-known member
Iran you even have a built-in casuis belli with the hostage crisis

Ooh, so that's a different one. A US invasion of Iran from the air and sea during the hostage crisis in 1979-1981? Or an invasion via Iraq alongside Iraq forces from 1980 onward? An occupation of Iran, and an insurgency there, after a failed rescue and execution of hostages or a successful rescue?

Do the Soviets stand aside while the US occupies Iran up to the USSR border? Do they oppose US forces, or occupy a buffer zone of Iran where US forces are not present? Do they support an anti-US insurgent faction?
 

Skallagrim

Well-known member
I think Nicaragua should be easier to handle, as Wolfbear has noted. Lebanon will be militarily easier, but will be a mess in the long term. The options you have discounted seem likewise improbable to me.

Nicaragua would just be a text-book case of "invade, depose [their evil bastard], install [our evil bastard]", rinse & repeat. Banana republic the shit out of it.

Lebanon would be a mess, which might have the effect of teaching the Americans some useful lessons about Muslim radicalism and the Arab world. Lessons like: "you can't do nation-building here, it's all tribal and you have to deal with that reality" and "these fuckers actually take religion seriously and are willing to blow themelves up".

The scenario that really gives you a horrible long-term quagmire, of course, is @Cherico's suggestion to use Iran for this. Have the Americans avoid other wars, and have them blunder into Iran without having learned any crucial lessons. It'll be just as bad as Vietnam. A real horror show.
 

sillygoose

Well-known member
Well @WolfBear, @Agent23, @Skallagrim, @sillygoose, @Val the Moofia Boss - Considering what I outlined in post #23 - imagine the US gets to skip the Vietnam war or Indochina War. How it does is not important. I calculated the most likely next occasions for a similar style of involvement would be Nicaragua at the end of the 1970s or Lebanon in the 1980s.

How would either of those go. Or would any of the other alternatives I rated less likely for (reasons) go? Like Angola, Yemen, Konfrontasi, Horn of Africa
Latin America is super easy for the US to dominate, so it probably wouldn't even come to a significant conflict if the US got directly involved. See how quickly Panama went.

Lebanon would be a mess and I have a really hard time seeing the US getting really involved there with substantial ground forces. Certainly substantial SF and CIA assets, but the US had Israel to do the heavy lifting in the region for it. Honestly I'd imagine outside of Latin America it would be all about proxy forces doing the fighting while the US military keeps ready for WW3 in Europe.
 

raharris1973

Well-known member
The scenario that really gives you a horrible long-term quagmire, of course, is @Cherico's suggestion to use Iran for this. Have the Americans avoid other wars, and have them blunder into Iran without having learned any crucial lessons. It'll be just as bad as Vietnam. A real horror show.

Why would you say so, in particular?

Iraq outperformed Iran throughout the entirety of the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, and then the US easily beat Iraq. That does not make the Iranians look stellar or North Vietnam level.
 

Skallagrim

Well-known member
Why would you say so, in particular?

Iraq outperformed Iran throughout the entirety of the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, and then the US easily beat Iraq. That does not make the Iranians look stellar or North Vietnam level.
Quick answer, because work this week doesn't really allow for online-time:

It's not invading and overthrowing the government that's the problem. It's occupying the country. If you don't, they re-install a bunch of leaders that you hate (and who hate you) before your planes leave their air-space. If you do, it's another doomed-to-failure attempt at bringing "peace & democracy".
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Quick answer, because work this week doesn't really allow for online-time:

It's not invading and overthrowing the government that's the problem. It's occupying the country. If you don't, they re-install a bunch of leaders that you hate (and who hate you) before your planes leave their air-space. If you do, it's another doomed-to-failure attempt at bringing "peace & democracy".

But Richard Hanania said that he couldn't find any examples of below-replacement fertility countries actually launching successful insurgencies! Of course, he was talking about Ukraine rather than Iran, but still, ...
 

raharris1973

Well-known member
But Richard Hanania said that he couldn't find any examples of below-replacement fertility countries actually launching successful insurgencies! Of course, he was talking about Ukraine rather than Iran, but still, ...

Well when's the war? If it is the 70s or 80s, Iran probably wasn't below replacement level fertility, so this observation would be irrelevant.

When did Iran slide under replacement level anyway.

Are below replacement level occupiers less resilient as occupiers too?
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Well when's the war? If it is the 70s or 80s, Iran probably wasn't below replacement level fertility, so this observation would be irrelevant.

When did Iran slide under replacement level anyway.

Early 21st century, I believe. And Yeah, fair point about Iranian fertility previously being much higher.

Are below replacement level occupiers less resilient as occupiers too?

Possibly, though Hanania argues that occupiers don't have to sacrifice as much as insurgents have to due to occupiers having military superiority. Thus, a below average fertility is harder on insurgents than on occupiers.

Personally, I think that Hanania also needs to take base populations into account. A high base population with a low fertility can still afford to take huge losses simply because they have a high population to start with. They won't be able to recoup their losses anywhere near as easily, at least in the short-run, but even if their population will fall significantly, this won't necessarily be a problem if their population would have been high to begin with.
 

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