Military Coup, and Now Civil War, in Sudan

[Husky_Khan]

Huh only took two years to go from ousting longtime Dictator Omar Al-Bashir and the military taking over from the Transitional Democratic Government that had been ruling for the past two years.

The military and civilian figures had been having a tense relationship in recent weeks after sharing power since the ouster of Omar Al-Bashir but now it looks like the Military has detained the Civilian governments Prime Minister and other government ministers who issued a statement that they do not support the military coup.

Back in September Khartoum reported defeating a coup attempt by civilian and military figures who were aligned with Omar Al-Bashir back on September 21st. Al-Bashir is currently under arrest and facing a trial in his home country for the crimes that occurred under his multidecade rule over the country. Since then the country had been enduring both pro-military and pro-civilian government protests and counter-protests with numbers in the tens of thousands on both sides.

Timeline: Sudan’s political situation since al-Bashir’s removal

Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok resigned in January 2022 after months of political deadlock.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[PsihoKekec]

Military originally brought the civilians into government as the window dressing, as they solidified their hold on power. Since they started getting uppity and clawing for actual power they had to be removed.

 

[Simonbob]

Pretty much the same story as Myanmar. That's been going on for a year now

 

[Husky_Khan]

Things are happening in Sudan apparently.

The Rapid Support Group is apparently a Rebel faction operating in Sudan made up of ex-military forces. They have overran Merowe Airbase which is located in Northern Sudan, about halfway between Khartoum and the Egyptian southern border. It is especially notable because it was playing host to several Egyptian military MiG-29 Jet Aircraft as well as hosting a considerable number of Egyptian military personnel.

If social media is to be believed, a number of these MiG's and at least several dozen Egyptian personnel have been captured by these Sudanese paramilitaries.





The stated purpose of Egyptian personnel and equipment at this base was for joint training with Sudanese forces, as opposed to being a party in the civil conflict still ongoing within Sudan.

And in case you need a catchup on events in Sudan, like I did, including what the hell the 'Rapid Support Forces' even are.

Sudan’s years-long power struggle explained

A look at the awkward relationship between Sudan’s military and the Rapid Support Force.

www.aljazeera.com

Factbox: Who are Sudan's Rapid Support Forces?

Here are some facts about Sudan's main paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces, which said on Saturday it had taken control of the presidential palace and the country's international airport in an apparent coup attempt. It accused the army of attacking first; the military said it was...

www.reuters.com

The Military Coup back in 2021 was backed by most of the military as well as disaffected and disenfranchised civil servants from the Bashir Dictatorship while the resistance to the Coup naturally came from the civilian backed government that was displaced. The RSF has origins with the Janjaweed Militia also backed by al-Bashir during the Darfur Genocides back in the mid-2000's but evolved into becoming a separate paramilitary force within the country of Sudan that did less genocide and fulfilled roles as border guards for Sudan as well as sending forces to fight in Yemen alongside the Saudi-led Intervention into that country.

The RSF also backed the Coup that ousted al-Bashir and the subsequent military-civilian power sharing structure that occurred soonafter. The RSF then also backed the 2021 Military Coup though later the leadership stated they regretted the decision and wish to see a transition to a full civilian government. Critics still regard the RSF (recent apologies notwithstanding) as having recently, if not ongoing participation in various war crimes and the like.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Fighting ongoing between the Sudanese Military and RSF Paramilitaries. This includes at Khartoum but also numerous other cities all across the country. Dozens killed. Civilians having no idea what's going on etc.

 

[lordhen]

This is how i see Russia ending up, while smaller, the Wagner Group will resist as fiercely as the RSF in being disbanded.

 

[Husky_Khan]

UN brokered Three Hour Humanitarian Cease Fire which both sides agreed to apparently collapsed rather rapidly. Both sides are actively fighting still.



The Sudanese Armed Forces is boasting having kicked out the RSF out of numerous towns and Merowe Air Base but nothing really confirmed yet.

The single biggest story recently is the amount of devastation that has been documented at the Khartoum International Airport including reports of multiple aircraft having been destroyed.



RSF Forces are apparently still present at Khartoums Presidential Palace as well.



Lots of reports of artillery and automatic weapons fire, that the RSF shot down a helicopter, and of jets and helicopter gunships flying over various areas conducting airstrikes etc.

Perhaps the most random story... The RSF released video of them capturing a transport helicopter in the Western Darfur region previously operated and owned by the World Food Program.



Strange flex but okay...

 

[Husky_Khan]

Oh No... someone is identifying the losses in the Sudan Civil War.



It's already a whole thread.

 

[lordhen]

Oh No... someone is identifying the losses in the Sudan Civil War.



It's already a whole thread.

Well somebody needs to step in the shoes if Oryx is not doing it.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Lot of developments in Sudan. At least 180 killed so far according to the UN. A US Convoy came under fire, no casualties. And a 24 Hour Ceasefire is planned to go into effect though the last one which was only three hours long collapsed immediately.





Egypt's President al-Sisi states this conflict is an internal matter and they are not a party to the conflict and are engaging with both sides to de-escalate.





With that said at least some of the Egyptian MiG-29's located at Merowe Airbase have been damaged and/or destroyed.

Egyptian MiG-29s Destroyed In Sudan

Egypt's MiG-29M/M2s that were deployed to Sudan's Merowe Air Base have come under attack, likely ending up damaged or destroyed.

www.thedrive.com

 

[lordhen]

With that said at least some of the Egyptian MiG-29's located at Merowe Airbase have been damaged and/or destroyed.

Egyptian MiG-29s Destroyed In Sudan

Egypt's MiG-29M/M2s that were deployed to Sudan's Merowe Air Base have come under attack, likely ending up damaged or destroyed.

www.thedrive.com

The RSF is doing all things needed to get other counties involved, capturing Egyptians to shooting EU and US diplomats.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Sudan states that their armed forces repelled an incursion by Ethiopian forces into the disputed Al-Fashaga area bordering both countries and which is currently under Sudanese control.

However Nobel Peace Prize winning President of Ethiopia Abey (that never gets old to say) has denied any attack in that area and blames the rumormongering on forces that want to create a conflict between both countries and that any border disputes he has will be resolved through dialogue.



Also the attempt at a 24 Hour Ceasefire failed. Fighting continues into the sixth day now.

Sudan’s generals reject negotiations as ceasefire fails

Both sides blame each other for the ongoing fighting in interviews with Al Jazeera.

www.aljazeera.com

The leader of the RSF, General Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo has stated he will not sit down and talk with his Government rival General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Conversely General Burhan stated there is no party with whom they can negotiate with.

Both sides also stated they weren't opposed to a ceasefire over the Muslim Holiday of Eid but blame each other for the failures of the previous ceasefires.

The RSF is doing all things needed to get other counties involved, capturing Egyptians to shooting EU and US diplomats.

Yeah I wonder if it's indiscipline or lack of control or intention.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Oryx started a new list...

Sudan On Fire: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2023 Sudan Crisis

www.oryxspioenkop.com

Lotta aircraft already thanks to all the airbases seized I suppose as well as the heavy fighting that took place around Khartoum International Airport

 

[Husky_Khan]

United States and other countries are assembling forces to likely help facilitate an evacuation of their (and other nations) embassies from Khartoum.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Just FYI, the Eid Ceasefire collapsed.



War Mapper posted some maps but... this is likely extremely simplistic/low confidence depictions of the situation in Khartoum and Sudan in general.

Convoys are being organized to evacuate foreign nationals from Khartoum to Port Sudan. The Sudanese Army has stated they will support the evacuation of foreign diplomatic personnel.





Several countries including Saudi Arabia and Spain are sending planes and ships to Port Sudan to assist in the evacuation. It also seems to support the development that RSF Paramilitary Forces have been pushed out of Port Sudan after the initial uprising almost a week ago.

And in case you were wondering about aircraft losses...

Khartoum Kaputt: Aircraft Losses During The 2023 Sudan Crisis

www.oryxspioenkop.com

At least three of those MiG-29's captured at Merowe Airbase during the initial uprising were damaged/destroyed along with a Mi-17 Utility Helicopter. Also about eight private airplanes were destroyed at Khartoum Airport. Boeing 737's owned by the Ukrainian Charter Airliner SkyUp, Sudan's own Badr Airlines, Indonesia's Asia Cargo Airlines were all destroyed along with a Saudia Airlines Airbus 330, a South Africa ATR-42, a Kenyan Embraer ERJ145, a Belarussian IL-76 and somebodies Beechcraft Super King Air 350.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Evacuations of various foreign embassies in Khartoum is expected to begin "soon" with cooperation of the Sudanese military.

Sudan's army says US Embassy evacuation to begin soon

The Sudanese military is coordinating with foreign governments to prepare for the evacuation and repatriation of diplomats and embassy workers inside the warring nation.

www.foxnews.com

It's estimated some thirty thousand foreign nationals are in the area, over half of whom are Americans.

An estimated 1400 troops from over a half dozen countries have gathered in neighboring Djibouti to "keep options open."

 

[Husky_Khan]

US Embassy in Khartoum was successfully evacuated. American Special Forces were involved in the operation.

Special forces swiftly evacuate US embassy staff from Sudan

U.S. special operations forces have carried out a precarious evacuation of the American Embassy in Sudan, where fights has broken out between two warring factions. U.S. officials announced the evacuation late Saturday night, saying American forces had swept in and out of Sudan's capital on...

apnews.com

 

[Husky_Khan]

Multiple US Chinook Helicopters Were Used in the Evacuation of US Diplomatic Personnel, flying over 1600 miles round trip to and from Khartoum. The RSF stated they helped with "coordinating" the evacuation of these embassies though the extent of that coordination was that they thankfully didn't fire upon the evacuees.



Also various convoys are apparently also able to depart the area for Port Sudan which has become a hub for evacuation of foreign nationals.



As for the conflict itself, it's believed upwards of seven thousand prisoners may have been freed from Kober Prison, where numerous war criminals were being housed including former President of Sudan (and wanted by the ICC) Omar al-Bashir. His current status is unknown.

[Omar al-Bashir’s whereabouts unknown after RSF attack on Kober prison

According to the World Health Organization, over four hundred people have been killed and almost four thousand wounded in the nine days of fighting so far. Tens of thousands reportedly displaced across the country.

OCHA: 400+ dead, mass displacements amid Sudan clashes - Dabanga Radio TV Online

KHARTOUM / EL OBEID / EL GEZIRA / SENNAR / WHITE NILE / RIVER NILE...

www.dabangasudan.org

This article (Sudanese Source: Radio Dabanga) also has a map of the purported clashes still going on.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Some random bits regarding the ongoing Sudanese Civil War.

First an article on Eritrea and Ethiopia in regards to the ongoing Sudanese Civil Conflict.

Will Ethiopia and Eritrea be dragged into Sudan’s complex war?

The countries have a long history of getting involved in each other’s affairs, leading to fears of a regional crisis.

www.aljazeera.com

Apparently weeks before hostilities, Nobel Peace Prize winning President Abiy of Ethiopia hosted General al-Burhan, the top Commander in the Sudanese Military Government where they discussed Ethiopia's Grand Revolutionary Dam project and its potential impact on the downriver nations.

Likewise the leader of the Rebel RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan "Hemedti" Dagalo met Eritrea's Dictator, Isais Afwerki to discuss "bilateral" relations two months later.

Reportedly after teaming up to gangbang Tigray during the Tigray conflict, Eritrea and Ethiopia have had soured recently. Eritra apparently disagreed with Ethiopia signing a peace deal with the Tigrayan Rebels and furthermore, disagree with Ethiopia's attempts to bring Amharic military units into Ethiopia's National Army. Amhara is apparently backed by Eritrea and in response to Ethiopia's requests/demands, rebellion has intensified in Amhara against the Ethiopian central government.

Also during the beginning of the Tigray War, Sudan took advantage of the conflict by launching a military incursion into the disputed border region of el-Fashiga, displacing the Amharic farmers that lived there. Recently there were reports of Sudanese Armed Forces repelling an armed Ethiopian incursion into the same region at the outset of this conflict.

There are also large numbers of resettled/refugee Tigrayans that live in Eastern Sudan including many military/combat veterans.

Outwardly of course, both Eritrea and Ethiopia have called for a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

Speaking of Tigrayan refugees... A fire broke out at one of the refugee camps in Sudan displacing a couple hundred refugees and injuring two children.





Finally a firsthand account of someone who arrived in Sudan for a job mere days before the Sudanese Civil War broke out in Khartoum. Almost took a handcart directly into a battle, was trapped at a hotel, then trapped at a families home, facing sniper fire, food and water shortages and robbery at gunpoint etc before finally escaping via bus convoy to Port Sudan and returning back home. The entire wonderful job and resulting vacation in Sudan took just over two weeks to experience.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Haven't really been following the conflict in Sudan, but with the mention of Wagner "allegedly" shifting their veteran Mercenaries from Ukraine to Sudan to support the RSF Forces against the Sudanese Armed Forces reminded me that Ryan McBeth actually posted two interesting shorts displaying some of the good tactics that the RSF forces have displayed during this conflict.

First in regards to an RSF ATGM team deployed a Russian Kornet ATGM.



And regarding convoy spacing.



Indigenous Sudanese TAKA-2 122mm Grad Rocket Launchers being featured.