Most Likely Confederate Victory PoD?
- Thread starter Eparkhos
- Start date
Buba
A total creep
1 - at outbreak of hostilities the Confederate affiliated armed mob bests the Union affiliated armed mob and takes Washington in summer 1862;
2 - Lack of major Union success between Gettysburg and US 1864 elections, producing Copperhead victory at the polls;
3 - the Union pisses off the UK and/or France, the result being the USA curbstomped by either European Power acting in concert with CSA.
2 - Lack of major Union success between Gettysburg and US 1864 elections, producing Copperhead victory at the polls;
3 - the Union pisses off the UK and/or France, the result being the USA curbstomped by either European Power acting in concert with CSA.
History Learner
Well-known member
There are many, spanning from 1861 to late 1864, which could be used to achieve a Confederate victory. The easiest/best for the Confederacy, I think, would be one in 1861 or 1862, with myself leaning towards a Trent Affair War. You could also, alternatively, trigger Anglo-French intervention in late 1862 with greater success by Confederate armies in the field.
Most likely?
Lincoln is going to be President and a very obstinate one at least until the Autumn of 1864. I would imagine having a military stalemate in the West similar to the one in the East up until the Spring of 1864 should shift the Presidential Election odds to a Peace Democrat candidate who will campaign on ending the war with the Confederacy and granting them their independence.
So instead of having Farragut taking New Orleans and Grant/Sherman/Rosecrans and friends making progress in the West, perhaps Grant loses at Shiloh and discredits both himself and Sherman and all of the rest of his future coterie so that lesser Union Generals take over the campaign in the West and turn in a middling performance for the next two plus years.
Combine that with a loss at one or both of Lee's Invasions of the North and/or another advance and then disastrous defeat marching into Virginia in the Spring/Summer of 1864 by whoever commands the Army of the Potomac and maybe a Shenandoah Campaign that ends up threatening Washington DC as per OTL... after almost four years of War, all the Union would have to show for its many efforts would be coastal bits of the Southern coast, and thick chunks of Missouri, Kentucky and Tennessee and not much else. Lincoln loses the 1864 election and some lame Peace Democrat wins instead and makes peace with the Confederacy.
Basically whatever gets Lincoln losing to a Peace Democrat in the 1864 Election seems the most likely outcome. It's important to note that McClellan was not a Peace Democrat but the party platform at the time was based on a Peace Democrat basis. And there was variance on what kind of Peace various Democrats wanted... whether a negotiated settlement with various terms or an immediate cessation of hostilities.