Thanking Hamas - i just created another conspiracy theory.Biden is pretending to be China tool,just like his son - BUT,IN REALITY THEY PLANNED FROM THE BEGINNING TO KILL CHINA ECONOMY .
Using Hamas as their tool,of course.
All Hail Biden genius !
peter Zeihan 2020
- Thread starter Cherico
- Start date
Thanking Hamas - i just created another conspiracy theory.Biden is pretending to be China tool,just like his son - BUT,IN REALITY THEY PLANNED FROM THE BEGINNING TO KILL CHINA ECONOMY .
Using Hamas as their tool,of course.
All Hail Biden genius !
The $10 trillion in lost economic growth is fucking insane, if true.
The Ukranians solved their agriculture shipping problem thanks to the French allowing the Euros to put tariffs on stuff the French care about, allowing the Ukrainian cash crops to be shipped around, Ukranian drones hitting naval assets makes an export corridor in the western Black Sea, less political pressure to prop up Ukraine now that they can make their own money:
compounding retardation over a period of generations adds up.
Peter's Marietta College Q&A from March 27:
-70 significant minorities in Russia, most Turkic, lots of room for radical Islam
-That ISIS splinter group that did the terrorism thinks "ISIS is a bunch of pussies" and wants to kill everyone, doesn't care about holding terrority
-Lots of people in former Soviet world hate Moscow
-Shits on Tucker a bit on the way to reminding everyone about how foreign news reporting fell apart
-2032 is when the Russians run out of fighting age people to throw into the Ukranian War
-If the oil in the Russian pipelines freezes, it'll fuck up their wells and they'll have to redrill them
-Democratization of weaponized drones is biggest deal since American Revolution
-Anyone can do nanny cam + explosive + drone, whole new set of domestic problems as criminals adopt the tech
-The NSA has more offensive hacking capability than rest of planet combined (at least according to Peter), hacked the Houthis and switched target transponders to Russian/Chinese ships
-Starlink is within 24 months of being nationalized
-BRICs is Meryl-Lynch financial product, originally investment index, calculus of being in BRICs is changing, might lead to its dissolution
-Inevitable result of war with China is naval severing of import lines to the country, causing eventual collapse
-China may have overcounted population by 300 million under 40, have twice as many 60+ year olds as teenagers
-80% of global chip production by value is between 10nm and 90nm, lots of manufacturing all over the world
-Sub-10nm chip manufacturing is nowhere near as robust and will be lost if Taiwan war
-Democratization of violence plays against US strengths as a military power
-Democratization of violence = removal of heirarchical processes to use/support drones, full democratization of violence is any individual being able to get a drone and strike someone, latest point will be 2025
-If it blunts power of aircraft carrier battlegroups or long range bombing, US is in trouble
-Replicator Initiative is US plan to take any flattop ship and put fabrication facilities on them that can pump out 1000 drones every 24 hours
-If supercarriers max out both reactors, they can sail at 90 knots (not sure if this is BS, but he believes it), might be able to outrun Shahid drones in endurance race
-Peter asserts China will not reach parity with US Navy until 2270 at current rate of expansion and assuming US adds no ships
-Chinese doctors were lying about amount of kids being immunized to sell the vaccines to third world countries
-Isreal situation cannot be solved in non-horrific manner
-Can't stop Hamas without leveling Gaza Strip
-Best case scenario is it being over when they hit 2% civilian death toll
-Peter sees no reason for the Isrealis to stop and no way to avoid mass civilian casualties
-Ultra Orthodox faction is now 20-35% of the Israeli population, don't know how to use military force properly
-Good time for US to go "fuck it" to Middle East entanglements
-The pure logic is to have relationship with Turkey and let most of the Middle East be other people's problems
-The Egyptians do NOT give a fuck about the Israelis killing the Palestinians and are confused it hasn't happened yet
-Most Arab states are down with killing the Palestinians, just not out loud
-Once Saudi Arabia gets to saying "kill the Palestinians" aloud, Arab-Israeli alliance is possible
-70 significant minorities in Russia, most Turkic, lots of room for radical Islam
-That ISIS splinter group that did the terrorism thinks "ISIS is a bunch of pussies" and wants to kill everyone, doesn't care about holding terrority
-Lots of people in former Soviet world hate Moscow
-Shits on Tucker a bit on the way to reminding everyone about how foreign news reporting fell apart
-2032 is when the Russians run out of fighting age people to throw into the Ukranian War
-If the oil in the Russian pipelines freezes, it'll fuck up their wells and they'll have to redrill them
-Democratization of weaponized drones is biggest deal since American Revolution
-Anyone can do nanny cam + explosive + drone, whole new set of domestic problems as criminals adopt the tech
-The NSA has more offensive hacking capability than rest of planet combined (at least according to Peter), hacked the Houthis and switched target transponders to Russian/Chinese ships
-Starlink is within 24 months of being nationalized
-BRICs is Meryl-Lynch financial product, originally investment index, calculus of being in BRICs is changing, might lead to its dissolution
-Inevitable result of war with China is naval severing of import lines to the country, causing eventual collapse
-China may have overcounted population by 300 million under 40, have twice as many 60+ year olds as teenagers
-80% of global chip production by value is between 10nm and 90nm, lots of manufacturing all over the world
-Sub-10nm chip manufacturing is nowhere near as robust and will be lost if Taiwan war
-Democratization of violence plays against US strengths as a military power
-Democratization of violence = removal of heirarchical processes to use/support drones, full democratization of violence is any individual being able to get a drone and strike someone, latest point will be 2025
-If it blunts power of aircraft carrier battlegroups or long range bombing, US is in trouble
-Replicator Initiative is US plan to take any flattop ship and put fabrication facilities on them that can pump out 1000 drones every 24 hours
-If supercarriers max out both reactors, they can sail at 90 knots (not sure if this is BS, but he believes it), might be able to outrun Shahid drones in endurance race
-Peter asserts China will not reach parity with US Navy until 2270 at current rate of expansion and assuming US adds no ships
-Chinese doctors were lying about amount of kids being immunized to sell the vaccines to third world countries
-Isreal situation cannot be solved in non-horrific manner
-Can't stop Hamas without leveling Gaza Strip
-Best case scenario is it being over when they hit 2% civilian death toll
-Peter sees no reason for the Isrealis to stop and no way to avoid mass civilian casualties
-Ultra Orthodox faction is now 20-35% of the Israeli population, don't know how to use military force properly
-Good time for US to go "fuck it" to Middle East entanglements
-The pure logic is to have relationship with Turkey and let most of the Middle East be other people's problems
-The Egyptians do NOT give a fuck about the Israelis killing the Palestinians and are confused it hasn't happened yet
-Most Arab states are down with killing the Palestinians, just not out loud
-Once Saudi Arabia gets to saying "kill the Palestinians" aloud, Arab-Israeli alliance is possible
Peter worries about Europe after Germany implodes:
-Germany has: extremely high value added economy focused on ultra skilled labor and precision, relatively cheap energy from Russians, global cover for exports via the US
-Germany getting fucked by aging population, getting cut off from Russian energy, shipping most of their exports to China
-Germany is central hub of manufacturing in Europe
-Lots of training and infrastructure is spread out in the rest of Europe
-Germany going down leads to general failure of European manufacturing
Peter talks about Ohio and its plastics:
-Ohio and Pittsburgh have dry gas fields, used as fuel
-Liquids are available - natural gas liquids
-Ohio has become world leader in premium plastics
-Liquids are primary feedstock into chemicals for plastics
-Secondary processing facilities popping up in populated areas of Ohio
-Germany has: extremely high value added economy focused on ultra skilled labor and precision, relatively cheap energy from Russians, global cover for exports via the US
-Germany getting fucked by aging population, getting cut off from Russian energy, shipping most of their exports to China
-Germany is central hub of manufacturing in Europe
-Lots of training and infrastructure is spread out in the rest of Europe
-Germany going down leads to general failure of European manufacturing
Peter talks about Ohio and its plastics:
-Ohio and Pittsburgh have dry gas fields, used as fuel
-Liquids are available - natural gas liquids
-Ohio has become world leader in premium plastics
-Liquids are primary feedstock into chemicals for plastics
-Secondary processing facilities popping up in populated areas of Ohio
When Germany implode,they would be replaced by turkish sultanate.Lack of germany would be last thing we would fear then.
Becouse fear of being beheaded or impaled would be more important.
High birth rates vs bad demographics:
-Yemen and Nigeria have high birth rates, not a lot of industrialization
-Have to look at infant mortality/child mortality under 5 years of age in countries without history of industrialization
-Overall life expectency also has to be looked at
-Better medicine reduces deaths at the youngest and oldest age brackets
-Chinese population doubling from 1985-2015 was mostly due to life expectency increase
-Only get that sort of gain once
-Yemen and Nigeria depend on tech from another continent to get their infant mortality decrease/life expectency increase
-If international trade falls apart, deaths in those brackets will increase
Supposedly we're prepping for China shock:
-Janet Yellen apparently told the Chinese that they'll get tarrif'd if they start dumping products on the international market
-The European Commission is proactively working on list of things that can be allowed in, seem to be defaulting to keeping everything out
-Chinese birth rate was decimated by COVID lockdowns
-Can't regenerate their population
-Can't have consumption led growth, investment led growth peaked, must have export led growth
-Will dump products on any markets they can
-Yellen flipped from moderate on China policy to harsh on China policy
-China now seen as economic, national security, environmental threat by US and Europe
-China is going to dump everything on developing world, will piss off those countries by killing local industry
-Can't damage Chinese industrial base before setting up your own industrial base without having problems
-Should've done it 10 years ago, but it's better than never
-Yemen and Nigeria have high birth rates, not a lot of industrialization
-Have to look at infant mortality/child mortality under 5 years of age in countries without history of industrialization
-Overall life expectency also has to be looked at
-Better medicine reduces deaths at the youngest and oldest age brackets
-Chinese population doubling from 1985-2015 was mostly due to life expectency increase
-Only get that sort of gain once
-Yemen and Nigeria depend on tech from another continent to get their infant mortality decrease/life expectency increase
-If international trade falls apart, deaths in those brackets will increase
Supposedly we're prepping for China shock:
-Janet Yellen apparently told the Chinese that they'll get tarrif'd if they start dumping products on the international market
-The European Commission is proactively working on list of things that can be allowed in, seem to be defaulting to keeping everything out
-Chinese birth rate was decimated by COVID lockdowns
-Can't regenerate their population
-Can't have consumption led growth, investment led growth peaked, must have export led growth
-Will dump products on any markets they can
-Yellen flipped from moderate on China policy to harsh on China policy
-China now seen as economic, national security, environmental threat by US and Europe
-China is going to dump everything on developing world, will piss off those countries by killing local industry
-Can't damage Chinese industrial base before setting up your own industrial base without having problems
-Should've done it 10 years ago, but it's better than never
Their running out of bribe money.
Lord Sovereign
The resident Britbong
Simpler than that.
Even the Neoliberal fat cats are beginning to realise what sort of monster they got into bed with. Even worse, they have engorged this beast to the point that it is the great threat to the world at the moment.
They still gave enough material for blackmail democrats.So,...
Plausible explanation - even demorats could undarstandt now,that they would die if they continue their romance with China.
And Democrats lives matter !
Peter talks about the Russian reserves:
-End of March, Ukranians massacred 76th Air Guard Group (something like that), some of Russia's best troops
-Were fighting in T55 tanks, built at beginning of Cold War, require 4 people to operate
-All of the original 2000 active tanks are either destroyed or incapacitated
-Russians are using oldest tanks first
-T55s had no optics, had stuff slapped on it
-Refitting newer tanks takes more time due to Russians no longer having specific equipment
-Soldiers are now being put onto the field with minimal training
-Russia down to about 6.5 million military age men
-Can fight for 5-8 years
-Russians can't shuffle resources around anymore, using it all fighting the Ukranians
-They are now more vulnerable to outside factors, due to their lack of depth
-End of March, Ukranians massacred 76th Air Guard Group (something like that), some of Russia's best troops
-Were fighting in T55 tanks, built at beginning of Cold War, require 4 people to operate
-All of the original 2000 active tanks are either destroyed or incapacitated
-Russians are using oldest tanks first
-T55s had no optics, had stuff slapped on it
-Refitting newer tanks takes more time due to Russians no longer having specific equipment
-Soldiers are now being put onto the field with minimal training
-Russia down to about 6.5 million military age men
-Can fight for 5-8 years
-Russians can't shuffle resources around anymore, using it all fighting the Ukranians
-They are now more vulnerable to outside factors, due to their lack of depth
PeaceMaker 03
Well-known member
I do not think it will be 5-8 years. Economic issues, trouble on other boarders, the number of men avoiding call up, the tanks pulled out of stocks have been looted of best equipment and sold off.
The newish tanks that can be built are numbered in low dozens per year…. Maybe.
Major issue is transportation away from railheads, Russian government is seizing civilian van's and trucks, causing secondary issue in civilian support structure, and making gas/petrol shortages worse.
How bad is it for Russian economy? Kazakhstan just seized Russian space launch facility due to Russians failure to pay rents for over a year. Question on if Russia could even do launches at this time.
India made formal complaint to Russia for sending Indians in Russia to work to Ukraine to fight. Not Russian speakers shanghied and sent to the front, same for Nepal. Millions of people, but Russia is stealing kids from Ukraine and mil-age-males from other countries.
The newish tanks that can be built are numbered in low dozens per year…. Maybe.
Major issue is transportation away from railheads, Russian government is seizing civilian van's and trucks, causing secondary issue in civilian support structure, and making gas/petrol shortages worse.
How bad is it for Russian economy? Kazakhstan just seized Russian space launch facility due to Russians failure to pay rents for over a year. Question on if Russia could even do launches at this time.
India made formal complaint to Russia for sending Indians in Russia to work to Ukraine to fight. Not Russian speakers shanghied and sent to the front, same for Nepal. Millions of people, but Russia is stealing kids from Ukraine and mil-age-males from other countries.