Plausibility Check: Without World War I, could deeper integration between Germany and Austria-Hungary form the nucleus for a future European Union? As in, initially Germany and A-H jointly pursue deeper and deeper integration, but then other countries possibly join them, such as Serbia, Montenegro, Romania, an independent Poland if it ever succeeds in breaking away from Russia, maybe some other Balkan countries, et cetera. Does this actually sound realistic, @sillygoose?
Plausibility Check: Without World War I, could deeper integration between Germany and Austria-Hungary form the nucleus for a future European Union?
- Thread starter WolfBear
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In other words, something similar to the WWI-era Mitteleuropa concept, just without WWI itself occurring:
encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.net
Concept of Mitteleuropa | International Encyclopedia of the First World War (WW1)
Friedrich Naumann’s ''Mitteleuropa'' (1915) was a liberal voice in the largely illiberal German discussion on the future of East Central and South East Europe. His reasoning, based on principles of free trade and voluntary cooperation, did not dominate this debate, which, in consequence...
encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.net
@raharris1973 @stevep @Zyobot @Skallagrim @Earl @Atarlost @Ricardolindo @bintananth What do you guys think about this?
I would suspect not. Germany could be interesting in absorbing Austria and possibly Bohemia but any organisation with the proportion of non-Germans becoming significant wouldn't be that popular in Berlin if it was a democratic organisation.
Similarly and possibly even more importantly with the period of nationalism and growth of identities I think most of those peoples would be unhappy with the idea of a union too clearly dominated by Germany. Definitely not places like Serbia nor given their history would the Poles, if the alternative was independence.
Similarly and possibly even more importantly with the period of nationalism and growth of identities I think most of those peoples would be unhappy with the idea of a union too clearly dominated by Germany. Definitely not places like Serbia nor given their history would the Poles, if the alternative was independence.
Skallagrim
Well-known member
If the World Wars are avoided, I can easily see Germany and Auatria going for closer economic integration. Parisan concerns (e.g. German agrarian land-owners opposing a common market) will be eclipsed by the benefits of (and ultimately need for) closer partnership.
This will most probably be a scenario in which Russia, with some hiccups along the way, becomes a real threat to Europe. The Austro-Germans will lend clandestine support to Polish, Finnish, Baltic and Ukrainian independence movements. This will presumably be in exchange for them joining an Austro-German led security pact. (And also accepting appropriately German-speaking monarchs.) The countries involved may well play ball, since being a sovereign country subordinate to Germany is still much better than being directly under the Russian yoke.
In the Balkan countries, it may be different. Bulgaria could go with the German system, but Serbia and Romania may well have serious objections. Alternatively, the Austrians may court the Romanians, but that may well lose them Bulgarian support. Greece will stay neutral at firm British insistence. But otherwise, if Russia develops into a real threat over time, Britain may tentatively start backing the Germans against the Russians...
All in all, though, we are talking here about some customs union at the core, with a hot of bilateral treaties for the peripheral countries, and then another slew of common security arrangements. And part of the above relies on the assumption that Polish, Finnish, Baltic and Ukrainian independence movements can succeed. Which may well be called into question.
So an alternative is that it's just Germany, Austria-Hungary, and either Bulgaria or Romania. With the Ottomans as a more detached ally. However, in that case, again assuming Russia grows more threatening as time passes, British support for the German bloc will likely be more overt.
This will most probably be a scenario in which Russia, with some hiccups along the way, becomes a real threat to Europe. The Austro-Germans will lend clandestine support to Polish, Finnish, Baltic and Ukrainian independence movements. This will presumably be in exchange for them joining an Austro-German led security pact. (And also accepting appropriately German-speaking monarchs.) The countries involved may well play ball, since being a sovereign country subordinate to Germany is still much better than being directly under the Russian yoke.
In the Balkan countries, it may be different. Bulgaria could go with the German system, but Serbia and Romania may well have serious objections. Alternatively, the Austrians may court the Romanians, but that may well lose them Bulgarian support. Greece will stay neutral at firm British insistence. But otherwise, if Russia develops into a real threat over time, Britain may tentatively start backing the Germans against the Russians...
All in all, though, we are talking here about some customs union at the core, with a hot of bilateral treaties for the peripheral countries, and then another slew of common security arrangements. And part of the above relies on the assumption that Polish, Finnish, Baltic and Ukrainian independence movements can succeed. Which may well be called into question.
So an alternative is that it's just Germany, Austria-Hungary, and either Bulgaria or Romania. With the Ottomans as a more detached ally. However, in that case, again assuming Russia grows more threatening as time passes, British support for the German bloc will likely be more overt.
Excellent analysis! FWIW, I suspect that Romania might view an EU-style union (if it actually eventually gets that far after a customs union) to be a good deal since this might be its only realistic way to get closer to Transylvania and Bukovina without a collapse of A-H, which I suspect is unlikely without A-H losing a World War or at least experiencing a revolution (which is much harder, but not completely impossible, to successfully pull off without a World War).
@Skallagrim I want to float another proto-EU scenario with you: If the Entente still wins WWI but Russia avoids going Communist (due to someone killing Vladimir Lenin in or before late 1917), would it be plausible for a proto-EU to eventually develop throughout Europe and to include all or at least most European countries other than Russia, which will presumably be too large and populous to join this proto-EU but would be nice to have as a top friend and ally of this proto-EU if at all possible?