Potential Civil War or Succession Crisis in Ethiopias Northern Tigray Region

[Husky_Khan]

Exclusive: U.S. says reports of Eritrean troops in Ethiopia's Tigray are 'credible'

The United States believes reports of Eritrean military involvement in the conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray region are "credible," a State Department spokesperson told Reuters on Thursday, despite denials by both nations.

www.reuters.com

The US State Department has stated reports of Eritrean troops operating on the Tigray region are credible despite denials made by both countries.

If true this likely means Eritrea is deploying troops to the neighboring Tigray region to help President Abiys forces suppress the rebellious TPLF forces.

President Abiy earned his Peace Prize by helping establish a peace deal with Eritrea last year after decades of conflict. The US is worried foreign involvement will merely further inflame tensions in a region where reportedly hundreds have been killed and a million displaced by the ongoing conflict.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Instability seems to be spreading across Ethiopia now.

Ethiopian troops kill armed men accused of deadly village attack - Fana TV

Ethiopia's military killed 42 armed men accused of attacking a village in the western Benishangul-Gumuz region, state-affiliated Fana TV reported on Thursday, as the government sent in more troops to contain ethnic tensions.

www.reuters.com

According to the state run Ethiopian Human Rights Commission, a dawn raid in the Benishangul-Gumuz region of Western Ethiopia by unidentified attackers killed over a 100 villagers. Thousands more fled the area where two other attacks were also reported. Medical personnel in the area reported treating knife and gun wounds. The Ethiopian military responded today with an attack on the suspected perpetrators and in a military operation on Thursday, state-run Fana TV reported forty two armed men accused of the attack were killed in the operation and several bows and arrows among other weapons were found in the attack.

The origins of this particular conflict are somewhat unrelated to the ongoing rebellion in the Tigray Province but between the Amhara and Gumuz ethnic groups fighting over historical land rights.

 

[PsihoKekec]

These kind of tribal clashes have been going on for millenias. Kenia and Tanzania also have such tribal massacres occurring occasionally, with single digit bloodsheds never making it into news.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Uncorroborated at this moment but...

Massacre at Tigray's Mariam of Zion cathedral in Aksum - Eritrea Hub

Martin Plaut On Tuesday, 15th of December, Ethiopian federal troops and Amhara militia approached the Mariam of Zion cathedral in...

eritreahub.org

Ethiopian troops and Amhara militia advanced on the Cathedral of Mariam of Zion, located in ancient Tigrayan city of Aksum. There, it is rumored the Ark of the Covenant of Biblical and Indian Jones fame, resides and can only be accessed and viewed upon by certain monks who operate in the Cathedral. While the Ethiopian government has admitted the Cathedral itself suffered damage, what its uncorroborated and certainly denied by Ethiopian authorities is the report of a massacre of roughly 750 protestors/worshippers/refugees at the Cathedral and reports the Ethiopian troops and militia wished to removed the Ark of the Covenant artifact from the Cathedral with them reportedly stating it belongs in Addis Adaba (Ethiopia'a Capital).

The massacre reportedly occurred on or around December 15th but due to the news and communications blackout in Tigray, has taken weeks to filter out beyond the region. News of this massacre follow rumors (followed by Ethiopian government confirmation) of an ancient 7th century Islamic Mosque (the Nejashi Mosque) also being heavily damaged during the fighting in the same area.

 

[Husky_Khan]

If things weren't getting worse for Ethiopia in general, now there's border tensions with neighboring Sudan. Much like Ethiopia, though perhaps far more dramatically, Sudan recently overthrow its longtime Dictator, President Omar al-Bashir (while in Ethiopia the dominance of Tigrayan political parties was removed via election) and a new more representative (hopefully) government has taken over Sudan.

Over 80 civilians killed in latest west Ethiopia attack

Age of victims of attack in Metekel zone in Benishangul-Gumuz region ranged between two and 45, says rights body.

www.aljazeera.com

Eighty people, including Ethiopian military personnel, were killed in a cross border attack or massacre a few days ago. This comes roughly a month after a similar cross border attack from Sudan that killed over two hundred people along the long disputed Ethiopian-Sudanese border. There were also accusations of Ethiopian forces attacking Sudanese in the area as well. The ongoing conflict in the Tigray region is feared to be supported a security vacuum in other areas of Ethiopia.

 

[Abhishekm]

I'm still trying to get over the fact that they apparently made a move for what they possibly believed was the actual arc of the covenant. So that was what December 2020 was about.

 

[Husky_Khan]

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An estimated 4.5 million people require food aid in the Tigray Region which is a lot considering the entire population of the place is estimated at 5 to 7 million (not including the hundreds of thousands who already fled the region). Getting aid to the region is extremely difficult however as most of the region is under a complete communications blackout and the government forces have limited the access of aid groups to very small parts of the affected region.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Eritrean forces should leave Ethiopia’s Tigray immediately: US

US State Department cites ‘credible reports of looting, sexual violence, assaults in refugee camps’ and other abuses.

www.aljazeera.com

The United States stated that Eritrean troops should leave the Tigray Region of Ethiopia immediately. Despite the reporting of international groups and foreign governments and Eritrea themselves stating that Eritrean troops are in the Tigray Region, the Ethiopian government has denied the presence of Eritrean troops in the Tigray region. The reason their presence is apparently worrying is not only due to the allegations of abuse, rape, violence and illegal killings/murder at the hands of Eritrean troops as they assist the Nobel Peace Prize winning Abiy government in suppressing Tigray is also because Tigray is apparently trying to round up Eritrean refugees who fled to the Tigray Region specifically and forcing them to return to Eritrea.

The United States also urged greater humanitarian access to the region which has seen the conflict approach its three month mark. Eritrea has responded that these reports are a campaign of defamation.

 

[Knowledgeispower]

Welp if we wanted to do so, Ethiopia looks like it needs some freedom

 

[Abhishekm]

Welp if we wanted to do so, Ethiopia looks like it needs some freedom

Is bombing a Nobel Peace Prize winner for committing war crimes an act worth a Nobel Peace Prize?

 

[Cherico]

they were legit better off when they had the monarchy.

 

[ParadiseLost]

The Nobel Peace Prize sounds like it’s just a popularity contest than one that would show the world people who actually accomplished anything good

Ironically, Donald Trump is probably the only person's whose done something in the past decade worth getting the prize.

I mean that less as a word of support for him, and more as a condemnation of incompetence on everyone else.

 

[Husky_Khan]

2019 Nobel Prize Winner President Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia is still prosecuting what is being labeled a "Secret War" in the Tigray Region with Eritrean assistance. Over a hundred rape allegations have emerged from the region since the conflict started four months ago, a number which should be taken into consideration against the apparently lack of operating public health or police facilties in the region.

"Hence, there is a possibility that the actual number of cases might be higher and more widespread than the reported cases," the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission said in a report of the 108 alleged rapes over the last two months.

After previously claiming not a single civilian had been harmed in the operation, even President Abiy has noted the potential civilian casualties has caused him "great distress." Some estimates range casualties as surpassing 50,000 dead at this point with hundreds of thousands more displaced. Other sex crimes include reported cases of forced incest and Ethiopian military personnel coercing sex for basic necessities like food and water.

There have also been cross border raids by Eritrean troops. According to one American nurse:

An American nurse who was visiting her family in the border town of Rama estimated looting Eritrean soldiers had left 1,000 dead.

She was able to fly out of the country and return to her home in Colorado.

If the fighting doesn't end soon, she told the AP, "we'll be left without families."

Ethiopia's secret war in Tigray region: Ethnic killings, rapes, near-starvation reported

Many women have "conclusively and without a doubt" been raped in the Tigray region, home to Ethiopia’s secretive conflict - which may have left tens of thousands of civilians dead - the country’s minister for women said Thursday in a rare government admission of its fallout.

www.foxnews.com

 

[liberty90]

Husky Khan is of course sarcastic, obvious in this context IMHO.

On the other hand. I genuinely see nothing surprising in federal Ethiopian reactions to one tribe arresting federal officials and attacking military base.

As far as African states go, federal military seems to be even competent. Excellent - honestly. Better to end this in two months than destroy lives of civilians during 15 years of mess.

...

From a perspective of a few months, I'm less and less and less impressed with how this war is waged. Either the government is unable to control forces in the field, or guilty of things that may be arguably called war crimes.

Eh.

 

[PsihoKekec]

Either the government is unable to control forces in the field, or guilty of things that may be arguably called war crimes.

Why can't it be both. Government exerting poor control over their armed forces is nothing new for the region and at the same time they probably also seek to break the power of the Tigray upper and middle class.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Yeah my OP when I first wrote about it was pretty generic I feel. Even used an NPR article as my main 'source' to ramble off of. I didn't realize Abiy was a Nobel Peace Prize Winner until my second post in the thread and I decided to meme on that... because regardless of how much merit the conflict could have, it is funny. But as the conflict goes on it just seems to get more and more awful, and we don't know about how truly awful it is because despite it being 2021, you can still enact a pretty decent communications blackout in many parts of the world. The meme is becoming even more scathing, surpassing even Arafat levels of Nobel Peace Prize irony.

 

[Arch Dornan]

'You should have finished off the survivors': Ethiopian army implicated in brutal war crime video

War crimes ahoy as the soldier tell his fellow soldier no survivors.

 

[Husky_Khan]

So the latest flurry of stories coming out of Ethiopia is focused on the organized and unorganized sexual violence that's been occurring. Likely thousands of victims ranging in ages from as old as eighty nine years old down to four years old. The propagators of this sexual violence are Ethiopian Federal Forces, Eritrean troops and adding a new wrinkle to all of this, in order to seem like they are complying with international demands, Eritrea is importing Somali mercenaries to compliment its forces in Ethiopia.

The story below is one account of rape and the description of the mutilation the woman received is pretty disturbing, just FYI. I quoted the more general remarks from the story below.

Video shows the horror of rape as weapon of war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region

A horrifying video showing a doctor operating on a woman who was brutally raped in Ethiopia’s conflict-torn Tigray region has been circulating widely on WhatsApp since early March. The surgery took place…

observers.france24.com

The media has reported many stories of women from the Tigray being raped by soldiers— either Eritrean or Ethiopian— or by members of militias, with reports increasing since March. This video documenting the violence carried out on this woman provides a unique and horrifying visual illustration to these reports.

On March 23, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, finally admitted that the Eritrean Army was participating in the conflict in the Tigray alongside the Ethiopian Army. He also said that rapes had been committed, without specifying by which party. He promised that the perpetrators of these rapes would be brought to justice, without providing any more details. He also said that the Eritrean troops would leave the country. However, several weeks later, in mid-April, there are still Eritrean troops on the ground. Accusations of rape as well as massacres and looting continue to flood in.

Thousands of people have died in the conflict that began November 4, 2020 between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian government. Eritrea, which has been historically hostile to the TPLF, sent troops to fight alongside Ethiopian soldiers. According to the United Nations, 4.5 million Tigrayans, out of a population of six million, need humanitarian aid.

 

[Husky_Khan]

The United Nations did an incomplete survey of the Tigray Region in regards to food security and potential famine.

In a report, it estimated that 353,000 people in Tigray were in phase 5 (catastrophe) and a further 1.769 million are in phase 4 (emergency).

That's a technical way of saying "famine". The IPC didn't use that word because it's so politically sensitive - the Ethiopian government would object.

The food situation is exacerbated by the fact the Tigrayan War is still ongoing. Estimates are one third of the Tigray is occupied by Ethiopian forces backed by their Nobel Prize winning President, another third of the province is occupied by the Tigrayan Rebels but mostly in wilderness and rural areas and another third by Eritrean troops working in concert with the Ethiopian Federal Government and who tellingly don't work with or allow in international or foreign aid groups.

Another estimate is that 300,000 may die of famine in the months to come, mostly young children, if the situation continues. Also there's conservative estimates of at least 22,000 victims of rape in the province as well. There are also independent estimates that only about 18% of the Tigray's 5.2 million people have access to aid due to corruption, interception and theft by Ethiopian, Eritrean troops and militia.

More worringly is that food security is being threatened in neighboring regions of Ethiopia as well as the Sudan thanks to the spreading instability and displacements occurring in the Tigray Region.

Ethiopia's Tigray crisis: Tragedy of the man-made famine

Aid workers are still unable to reach large parts of Ethiopia’s Tigray region because of the war there.

www.bbc.com

 

[PsihoKekec]

So yet another politically created famine in the region. Will musicians once again band together to aid those causing it?