Middle East Running Iranian threat news and discussion thread

[Marduk]

Iran was accused of helping Al Kaida.They do not do that/Saudi did/
Iran was accused of helping ISIS.They were fighting them,and Lebannon was saved from ISIS by Iran supported Hezbollah.And ISIS was initially supported by USA.
So,it is at least 50% of chance that again Iran is framed for something made by Saudis.Or USA.Or Izrael.Or all of them.

Its much better than 50%. Is Iran being accused of supporting Shia or Sunni militants?
If its the former, the chances rise a lot. If its the latter, the chances fall somewhat.
Considering the recent naval drama, the method of operation, and the locations and targets involved, chances are that it is them.

Note that Iran has already done a similar thing to a different tanker a year ago more officially, also for the sake of political show.

Iran seizes British tanker in Strait of Hormuz

A second tanker is now back on its way after it was boarded by armed guards in the Strait of Hormuz.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[ATP]

Its much better than 50%. Is Iran being accused of supporting Shia or Sunni militants?
If its the former, the chances rise a lot. If its the latter, the chances fall somewhat.
Considering the recent naval drama, the method of operation, and the locations and targets involved, chances are that it is them.

Note that Iran has already done a similar thing to a different tanker a year ago more officially, also for the sake of political show.

Iran seizes British tanker in Strait of Hormuz

A second tanker is now back on its way after it was boarded by armed guards in the Strait of Hormuz.

www.bbc.co.uk

Then possibility of Iranian action is bigger.But - they were accused so many times od things they do not did,that i do not belive easily in new accusations,even when those accusation are true.
Israel simply too many times shouted "wolf","wolf" to belive them even if they are right.

 

[GoldRanger]

MV Asphalt Princess: Ship ‘hijacked off UAE’ now safe, says navy

The hijackers who seized a vessel off the coast of the United Arab Emirates in the Gulf of Oman left the targeted ship on Wednesday, the Royal Navy reported.

www.standard.co.uk

I grabbed this news link at random, so I don't know if it contains all the info that's known right now about the incident.

The ship is safe. Looks like 5-6 armed persons, suspected Iranians, boarded the ship. The crew couldn't communicate with the hijackers in a meaningful way due to language barrier. They were forcing the ship to head toward Iran, with one report I've seen alleging that the crew resisted by disabling the engines at some point. However the hijackers eventually disembarked when they spotted a US and an Omani warships heading their way.

Omani navy ships now increased patrols in the gulf as a response to the incident.

I think that about covers everything.

 

[Tiamat]

MV Asphalt Princess: Ship ‘hijacked off UAE’ now safe, says navy

The hijackers who seized a vessel off the coast of the United Arab Emirates in the Gulf of Oman left the targeted ship on Wednesday, the Royal Navy reported.

www.standard.co.uk

I grabbed this news link at random, so I don't know if it contains all the info that's known right now about the incident.

The ship is safe. Looks like 5-6 armed persons, suspected Iranians, boarded the ship. The crew couldn't communicate with the hijackers in a meaningful way due to language barrier. They were forcing the ship to head toward Iran, with one report I've seen alleging that the crew resisted by disabling the engines at some point. However the hijackers eventually disembarked when they spotted a US and an Omani warships heading their way.

Omani navy ships now increased patrols in the gulf as a response to the incident.

I think that about covers everything.

Sounds like with the arrival of the US and Omani naval vessels, the Iranians decided this wasn’t the hill, or rather ship they wanted to die on.

 

[Marduk]

Sounds like with the arrival of the US and Omani naval vessels, the Iranians decided this wasn’t the hill, or rather ship they wanted to die on.

All about plausible deniability. If US Navy got living people or their corpses to ID, there could be a problem maintaining it.

 

[GoldRanger]

Crew of tanker said to have thwarted Iranian hijackers by sabotaging the engines

Five or six gunmen tried to take control of Panama-flagged Asphalt Princess off UAE coast, sail it to Iran, UK officials say; they fled after US and Omani warships arrived at scene

www.timesofisrael.com

Crew of tanker said to have thwarted Iranian hijackers by sabotaging the engines.

US aircraft saw suspected Iranian gunmen take something from a hijacked tanker during 7-hour incident: official

A US official said that the situation looked like a shakedown and had "all the hallmarks of international piracy."

www.businessinsider.com

US aircraft saw suspected Iranian gunmen take something from a hijacked tanker during 7-hour incident

Looks like the boarders were wearing Iranian coast guard uniforms. They were seen assaulting crew and destroying equipment.

"Our aircraft photographed the Iranian gunmen onboard and observed them removing something from the ship as they departed," the official added, noting that the situation looked like an "Iranian state-sponsored shakedown by Iranian forces" and that it had "all the hallmarks of international piracy."

A US Navy guided-missile destroyer was dispatched to the area, but it did not arrive until after the gunmen had left. It made contact with the crew, which reported that members were assaulted and the master was held at gunpoint.

The Times, citing UK government sources, said "the Iranians got on board and tried to take it back to Iran but the crew scuppered the engines," leaving it "bobbing in the water," unable to go anywhere. The Telegraph reported the same. The gunmen reportedly departed as foreign warships began to move into the area.

While naturally people will jump at conspiracy theories with "false flag" accusations (because naturally if someone does any wrong, America or Israel must be at fault somehow), I find it unlikely. Israel, the US and the UK don't need any fabricated justification for acting against Iran so soon after the Israeli-operated ship was attacked by an Iranian drone.

What's more likely IMO is that the Iranians either tried to scare off a future attack by demonstrating their ability to impede shipping in an important shipping lane without going overboard with something like mining the waters and risking open war, or they were so spooked by the prospect of an attack after the incident with the Israeli-operated ship that they jumped at their own shadows and boarded the Asphalt Princess because they thought it might be an undercover Mossad/MI6 vessel or something of this sort.

We've seen them jumping at shadows before. Remember when they shot down a Ukrainian airliner because they thought it might be a retaliatory cruise missile, after they fired rockets at an American base in Iraq?

 

[ATP]

Crew of tanker said to have thwarted Iranian hijackers by sabotaging the engines

Five or six gunmen tried to take control of Panama-flagged Asphalt Princess off UAE coast, sail it to Iran, UK officials say; they fled after US and Omani warships arrived at scene

www.timesofisrael.com

Crew of tanker said to have thwarted Iranian hijackers by sabotaging the engines.

US aircraft saw suspected Iranian gunmen take something from a hijacked tanker during 7-hour incident: official

A US official said that the situation looked like a shakedown and had "all the hallmarks of international piracy."

www.businessinsider.com

US aircraft saw suspected Iranian gunmen take something from a hijacked tanker during 7-hour incident

Looks like the boarders were wearing Iranian coast guard uniforms. They were seen assaulting crew and destroying equipment.







While naturally people will jump at conspiracy theories with "false flag" accusations (because naturally if someone does any wrong, America or Israel must be at fault somehow), I find it unlikely. Israel, the US and the UK don't need any fabricated justification for acting against Iran so soon after the Israeli-operated ship was attacked by an Iranian drone.

What's more likely IMO is that the Iranians either tried to scare off a future attack by demonstrating their ability to impede shipping in an important shipping lane without going overboard with something like mining the waters and risking open war, or they were so spooked by the prospect of an attack after the incident with the Israeli-operated ship that they jumped at their own shadows and boarded the Asphalt Princess because they thought it might be an undercover Mossad/MI6 vessel or something of this sort.

We've seen them jumping at shadows before. Remember when they shot down a Ukrainian airliner because they thought it might be a retaliatory cruise missile, after they fired rockets at an American base in Iraq?

Iranian coastal guard uniforms,and unable to communicate ? that it was false flag operation.Iranians are not idiots,they would not send people in their uniforms to take ship.Or dudes who could not speak english.
Since ISIS was supported initially by USA,and Hezbollah by Israel, both are potential suspects.

 

[Marduk]

Iranian coastal guard uniforms,and unable to communicate ? that it was false flag operation.Iranians are not idiots,they would not send people in their uniforms to take ship.Or dudes who could not speak english.
Since ISIS was supported initially by USA,and Hezbollah by Israel, both are potential suspects.

Why would Iranian commandos speak english to each other? They were talking to each other, in a language the tanker's crew could not understand, which would fit with the story, because Iranians would be speaking persian, not exactly widely known language.
It's more likely to be internal "false flag". Why would coast guard shadily board a ship in the international waters?
As usual, it would most likely be IRGC Navy. They do questionably legal shit like that, they are less likely to learn English than CG (still may not wanna talk to the crew anyway), and they would have access and reason to use CG uniforms - coast guard is far less suspicious than IRGC. Being Iranians, they also have the skills and papers to pretend to be Iranian coast guard.
So if they got captured, they would use that to claim they are innocent and should be returned to Iran. Meanwhile if they were openly IRGC, well, many western countries consider IRGC a terrorist organization, so hotel Gitmo it is.

 

[GoldRanger]

Iranian coastal guard uniforms,and unable to communicate ? that it was false flag operation.Iranians are not idiots,they would not send people in their uniforms to take ship.Or dudes who could not speak english.
Since ISIS was supported initially by USA,and Hezbollah by Israel, both are potential suspects.

Wow, so much wrong with this I don't even know where to begin.

"ISIS was supported initially by USA,and [sic] Hezbollah by Israel", LOL say what?

Again, why a risky false flag operation when the US and Israel had all the excuses they needed to attack Iran even before this?

The fact that they wore Iranian uniforms proves nothing, they may not have cared about being identified since they either wanted an international show of force or boarded as a result of an intelligence blunder (so they thought their actions were legitimate).

How about when Iran seized another ship 8 months ago, was that also a "false flag"? Or when it did the same thing 2 years ago? Wow, look at all them fake Iranian ship hijackings, the Mossad must have been busy

Maybe this kind of bullshit flies in Poland, I dunno, but to me it looks something like another "Jews did 9/11" claim.

 

[ATP]

Wow, so much wrong with this I don't even know where to begin.

"ISIS was supported initially by USA,and [sic] Hezbollah by Israel", LOL say what?

Again, why a risky false flag operation when the US and Israel had all the excuses they needed to attack Iran even before this?

The fact that they wore Iranian uniforms proves nothing, they may not have cared about being identified since they either wanted an international show of force or boarded as a result of an intelligence blunder (so they thought their actions were legitimate).

How about when Iran seized another ship 8 months ago, was that also a "false flag"? Or when it did the same thing 2 years ago? Wow, look at all them fake Iranian ship hijackings, the Mossad must have been busy

Maybe this kind of bullshit flies in Poland, I dunno, but to me it looks something like another "Jews did 9/11" claim.

Yes,Israel initially supported Hezbollah against Arafat.Now they are sorry for that.Nothing really new,Lenin was once german agent.And all that "moderate muslim" supported by USA in Syria - most were ISIS.
Not mention Al-Kaida - they started from USA supported group.

And Israel belive,taht could do everything and USA still would pay for it,so they could do anything,even if it look stupid.

Of course,it still could be iranian - but i doubt that they are that stupid.Becouse they have not support of USA no matter what they would do.

About bullshit in Poland - currently we have still bullshit about property of polish jews murdered by germans which according to law belong to polish state,but Israel want it for themselves.

 

[GoldRanger]

Pentagon investigative team says Iran was behind attack on Mercer Street tanker | CNN Politics

A US Defense Department expert team concluded that the drone behind the deadly attack on the Mercer Street commercial vessel was produced in Iran, US Central Command said in a statement Friday.

edition.cnn.com

Looks like it's no longer speculation, the UAV that attacked Mercer Street, killing a Romanian and British citizens was Iranian.

 

[PsihoKekec]

Yes,Israel initially supported Hezbollah against Arafat.

You are mistaking Hezbollah for Hamas. And they didn't exactly support it, they ignored it as negligible threat in the beginning.

 

[GoldRanger]

Yes,Israel initially supported Hezbollah against Arafat.Now they are sorry for that.Nothing really new,Lenin was once german agent.And all that "moderate muslim" supported by USA in Syria - most were ISIS.
Not mention Al-Kaida - they started from USA supported group.

And Israel belive,taht could do everything and USA still would pay for it,so they could do anything,even if it look stupid.

Of course,it still could be iranian - but i doubt that they are that stupid.Becouse they have not support of USA no matter what they would do.

About bullshit in Poland - currently we have still bullshit about property of polish jews murdered by germans which according to law belong to polish state,but Israel want it for themselves.

ROFL

I suggest you stick to Polish affairs, maybe there you'll have a clue.

 

[Battlegrinder]

It doesn't make sense for this to be an Israeli or US false flag.

The US wouldn't do it, the Biden Admin doesn't want a fight with Iran, nor does the intelligence community (and man is it screwed up when we have to account for the possibility of the intel community going rogue and trying to dictate policy). It doesn't suit Biden or the left's agenda, if anything they're pro Iran because the right is anti Iran (and because the left replaced the part of thier brain that was used for moral reasoning with a sticky note that says "the powerful side is always wrong").

Israeli wants Iran stopped for obvious reasons and would want/need the US to help out with that. But they know what the left is like just as much as we do. Iran was caught red-handed in a plot to kidnap and murder an American citizen from her home just a few weeks ago and the left brushed it aside because Power Dynamics, there's no way they woyld be roused to action because Iran hijacked a Panama flagged, Dubia owned ship.

 

[The Original Sixth]

It doesn't make sense for this to be an Israeli or US false flag.

The US wouldn't do it, the Biden Admin doesn't want a fight with Iran, nor does the intelligence community (and man is it screwed up when we have to account for the possibility of the intel community going rogue and trying to dictate policy). It doesn't suit Biden or the left's agenda, if anything they're pro Iran because the right is anti Iran (and because the left replaced the part of thier brain that was used for moral reasoning with a sticky note that says "the powerful side is always wrong").

Actually, I disagree. There is the SJW left that certainly supports Iran, but that is because they are anti-Israeli, which perhaps is an extension of anti-Americanism. Spoiled children throwing a fit because the world isn't as pretty as it ought to be. As far as Biden and his team goes, they have no reason to go to war with Iran. If Biden were intent on doing that, he wouldn't be drawing troops down in the Middle East. He would be surging them.

All said and done, the US is not in a place politically to invade Iran. It's not even a place to engage in a proxy war. The US public is tired of the Middle East. The US is leaving the Middle East, for better or worst. There is no going back on that. The best Biden's team can do is renegotiate with Iran on a new deal, but one that favors the United States and not Iran.

As for why there's been an increase in attacks lately, I can only expect that Iran is getting desperate. They were in bad economic straights when Trump basically cut them off from international trade. And now they've spent more than a year suffering from the Wuhan virus. And I can't imagine what will happen once the Delta variant sweeps through the country. Something that, I understand, the Chinese virus is not capable of resisting.

 

[Zachowon]

Actually, I disagree. There is the SJW left that certainly supports Iran, but that is because they are anti-Israeli, which perhaps is an extension of anti-Americanism. Spoiled children throwing a fit because the world isn't as pretty as it ought to be. As far as Biden and his team goes, they have no reason to go to war with Iran. If Biden were intent on doing that, he wouldn't be drawing troops down in the Middle East. He would be surging them.

All said and done, the US is not in a place politically to invade Iran. It's not even a place to engage in a proxy war. The US public is tired of the Middle East. The US is leaving the Middle East, for better or worst. There is no going back on that. The best Biden's team can do is renegotiate with Iran on a new deal, but one that favors the United States and not Iran.

As for why there's been an increase in attacks lately, I can only expect that Iran is getting desperate. They were in bad economic straights when Trump basically cut them off from international trade. And now they've spent more than a year suffering from the Wuhan virus. And I can't imagine what will happen once the Delta variant sweeps through the country. Something that, I understand, the Chinese virus is not capable of resisting.

If Iran causes major number of American deaths though

 

[LordsFire]

Actually, I disagree. There is the SJW left that certainly supports Iran, but that is because they are anti-Israeli, which perhaps is an extension of anti-Americanism. Spoiled children throwing a fit because the world isn't as pretty as it ought to be. As far as Biden and his team goes, they have no reason to go to war with Iran. If Biden were intent on doing that, he wouldn't be drawing troops down in the Middle East. He would be surging them.

All said and done, the US is not in a place politically to invade Iran. It's not even a place to engage in a proxy war. The US public is tired of the Middle East. The US is leaving the Middle East, for better or worst. There is no going back on that. The best Biden's team can do is renegotiate with Iran on a new deal, but one that favors the United States and not Iran.

As for why there's been an increase in attacks lately, I can only expect that Iran is getting desperate. They were in bad economic straights when Trump basically cut them off from international trade. And now they've spent more than a year suffering from the Wuhan virus. And I can't imagine what will happen once the Delta variant sweeps through the country. Something that, I understand, the Chinese virus is not capable of resisting.

I will point out that if the US wants to cripple Iran, we don't need a full-up war with them. We don't need to put a single soldier on the ground. Sink their navy, blow up their port infrastructure for exporting oil, blow up some key internal structure with air-strikes, and they're pretty much finished as a regional power for the near future.

 

[PsihoKekec]

Israelis and Saudis can do that as well, no need for USA to do their work for them.

If Iran causes major number of American deaths though

So do Saudi Arabia and Quattar

 

[Zachowon]

Neither can do it to the same level as the US.

 

[PsihoKekec]

That's their problem. And honestly Saudis can always hire competent mercenaries for their top of the line USA gear, but I guess it's cheaper to just lobby for USA to do their bidding.