Russia gathering forces near Ukraine Border

BlackDragon98

Freikorps Kommandant
Banned - Politics
There were US soldiers in Georgia during the 2008 South Ossetia war too, and look how that worked out...
They were there under the UN banner alone with observers from a dozen other nations and they were unarmed, which means they do fuck all.
Military tourists, except their postcards are 500 page reports that get filed and forgotten once they return from their trip.
Russia prevented them from returning after their mission expired using their Security Council powers.
The Russkies aren't stupid. They won't fire on a bunch of unarmed UN observers.
They just wait until the mission expires and the use their special UN powers to stop them from returning.

Training detachments and such generally get out of the way when shit hits the fan, as far as i know this isn't a tripwire force, like in certain NATO countries or in South Korea.
US forces in Ukraine are armed and under the US flag, just like in Syria.
Russians didn't mess with US forces in Syria and they won't in Ukraine.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
There are US soldiers in Ukraine.
That alone stops Russia from doing anything drastic, because if US soldiers start dying, than it's no longer just a Ukraine problem.

Putin ain't stupid. He knows that Russia can't fight a war in this state.

Syria was a different case BTW. Trump and Putin collaborated in destroying Obama's pet terrorists.
There were US soldiers in Georgia during the 2008 South Ossetia war too, and look how that worked out...
Training detachments and such generally get out of the way when shit hits the fan, as far as i know this isn't a tripwire force, like in certain NATO countries or in South Korea.


Let me put it this way.

When you have a whole division getting recalled because of this, and you have most if eurocom freaking out...

We take it serious. Because we take everything like this serious, if we don't we end up woth WW2 2.0. Because we let them get away woth to much
 

Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member
They were there under the UN banner alone with observers from a dozen other nations and they were unarmed, which means they do fuck all.
Military tourists, except their postcards are 500 page reports that get filed and forgotten once they return from their trip.
Russia prevented them from returning after their mission expired using their Security Council powers.
The Russkies aren't stupid. They won't fire on a bunch of unarmed UN observers.
They just wait until the mission expires and the use their special UN powers to stop them from returning.
Not those, there was a US Marine detachment on joint exercises in Georgia at the time, not unlike the US forces in Ukraine now, and it got moved out to not get in the way of Russians so rapidly that the Russians managed to grab some of their hardware from a port before it got shipped away.
US forces in Ukraine are armed and under the US flag, just like in Syria.
Russians didn't mess with US forces in Syria and they won't in Ukraine.
Oh there was plenty of messing around from both sides. Like this, and there's probably a lot more stuff that didn't get into the media:


Let me put it this way.

When you have a whole division getting recalled because of this, and you have most if eurocom freaking out...

We take it serious. Because we take everything like this serious, if we don't we end up woth WW2 2.0. Because we let them get away woth to much
That's typical maneuvering, not unlike what is done in reaction to all sorts of stuff from internal military maneuvers and exercises (Russia, China and North Korea alike love doing this stuff and complaining about every single NATO exercise within few hundred kilometers of their borders) to airspace violations (Russia and China, looking at you) and even outright terrorist attacks, like IRGC's naval shenanigans and whatever North Korea used to do in wilder times. But 99.999% of the time it doesn't result in the situations going hot.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
Not those, there was a US Marine detachment on joint exercises in Georgia at the time, not unlike the US forces in Ukraine now, and it got moved out to not get in the way of Russians so rapidly that the Russians managed to grab some of their hardware from a port before it got shipped away.

Oh there was plenty of messing around from both sides. Like this, and there's probably a lot more stuff that didn't get into the media:



That's typical maneuvering, not unlike what is done in reaction to all sorts of stuff from internal military maneuvers and exercises (Russia, China and North Korea alike love doing this stuff and complaining about every single NATO exercise within few hundred kilometers of their borders) to airspace violations (Russia and China, looking at you) and even outright terrorist attacks, like IRGC's naval shenanigans and whatever North Korea used to do in wilder times. But 99.999% of the time it doesn't result in the situations going hot.

No, but with tensions hot because of current admin, and the mikitary knowing full well we have to be in guard
 

Aaron Fox

Well-known member
Russia can't possibly fight a major war right now.
Their economy got wasted by sanctions after Crimea and Donbass.
Problem: that isn't a problem for Russia. When you've got a leadership that is nostalgic for the 'glory days' of the USSR and a population that is mostly in that camp, normal logic doesn't truly apply.

Also, it's public knowledge that Russia would see any actual NATO intervention as something to give a 'de-escalation' tac-nuke strike as per Russian/Soviet policy. Russia considers Ukraine to be Russian Soil, which fore fills one of the requirements for Russia/USSR giving someone some canned sunshine: foreigners on Russian soil.
Putin ain't stupid. He knows that Russia can't fight a war in this state.
No, he's in a do-or-die situation right now given Russia's laundry list of demographic and economic problems. His use of memetics in 2016 and the greater military intelligence operation it was a part of was so Putin and his cronies can move into Ukraine and the former soviet block, most of whom know what will happen when Russia returns...
Syria was a different case BTW. Trump and Putin collaborated in destroying Obama's pet terrorists.
This lie is passing around still?
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
Problem: that isn't a problem for Russia. When you've got a leadership that is nostalgic for the 'glory days' of the USSR and a population that is mostly in that camp, normal logic doesn't truly apply.

Also, it's public knowledge that Russia would see any actual NATO intervention as something to give a 'de-escalation' tac-nuke strike as per Russian/Soviet policy. Russia considers Ukraine to be Russian Soil, which fore fills one of the requirements for Russia/USSR giving someone some canned sunshine: foreigners on Russian soil.

No, he's in a do-or-die situation right now given Russia's laundry list of demographic and economic problems. His use of memetics in 2016 and the greater military intelligence operation it was a part of was so Putin and his cronies can move into Ukraine and the former soviet block, most of whom know what will happen when Russia returns...

This lie is passing around still?
If he tac nukes US troops, he causes world War 3
 

Aaron Fox

Well-known member
If he tac nukes US troops, he causes world War 3
As I said, normal logic doesn't apply. When dealing with seriously nostalgic/more ideology than sense people, 1+1=2 logic can't explain their methodology. Remember those Something-Something-???-Profit! memes? Think of the logic process being like that instead of something sane.

Add to the fact that this is stated Russian/Soviet nuclear weapon policy... have fun with that implication.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
As I said, normal logic doesn't apply. When dealing with seriously nostalgic/more ideology than sense people, 1+1=2 logic can't explain their methodology. Remember those Something-Something-???-Profit! memes? Think of the logic process being like that instead of something sane.

Add to the fact that this is stated Russian/Soviet nuclear weapon policy... have fun with that implication.
Russia isn't stupid
 

PsihoKekec

Swashbuckling Accountant
Seriously, some people are convinced that Russian leadership is slobbering imbeciles who want ALL OF UKRAINE!!!! It's bullshit, Donbass is enough of headache for them, their goal is to prevent Ukraine from retaking it and it will remain their goal fo foreseeable future, because they really can't afford a war of conquest.

Their economy got wasted by sanctions after Crimea and Donbass.
Yes and no, there were disruptions to their economy, but they mostly got over it. In particular, it was a godsend for their manufacturing sector as domestic customers had to rely on them more.

There are US soldiers in Ukraine.
Some advisors in Kiev, big deal.

Russia isn't stupid
But what about the USA?
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
Seriously, some people are convinced that Russian leadership is slobbering imbeciles who want ALL OF UKRAINE!!!! It's bullshit, Donbass is enough of headache for them, their goal is to prevent Ukraine from retaking it and it will remain their goal fo foreseeable future, because they really can't afford a war of conquest.


Yes and no, there were disruptions to their economy, but they mostly got over it. In particular, it was a godsend for their manufacturing sector as domestic customers had to rely on them more.


Some advisors in Kiev, big deal.


But what about the USA?
We also arnt stupid, but we also won't let Russia go uncontested
 

ATP

Well-known member
Yes, but when was the last time they weren't being wasted by sanctions?
And can Ukraine alone give them a major war?
No,but since they are in both german and Izrael spheres of influence,Putin could not just come and grab something which belong to his political allies - Merkel and Natanjahu.Becouse he need alliance with Izrael and Germany more ten ukrainian lands.
 

paulobrito

Well-known member
Russia is not interested in Ukrainian territory - is more interested in maintaining the current conflict - at low level - forever, one thing that for one stops Ukraine to enter NATO. The objective for Russia is to not have NATO at his frontiers.
Also, the series of sanctions related tu the Ukraine situation in a way are a godsend for Russia like PsihoKekec said.
 

Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member
No,but since they are in both german and Izrael spheres of influence,Putin could not just come and grab something which belong to his political allies - Merkel and Natanjahu.Becouse he need alliance with Izrael and Germany more ten ukrainian lands.
Israel relationship is business only.

Germany one, well, you probably know something about this matter - if the relationship between them was such that Merkel was willing and able to do something about it, Nordstream 2 would have been suspended or cancelled few years ago, on demand of Crimea or at least Donbass situation being solved favorably to Ukraine.
But this didn't happen, and we must take conclusions out of that not happening. Russia, through Gazprom, has Germany by the balls. Germany is allowed to make all the fuss about human rights they want, shit talk a lot about how much of a mean dictator Putin is and even make lots of sanctions of doubtful utility, but they are not allowed to make any major strategic moves against Russia, unless they want the gas to stop flowing that is. And if the gas stops flowing Germany's prize industry will be very unhappy with the effects of that, and in turn support the election of someone more competent with all the money it has.

Russia is not interested in Ukrainian territory - is more interested in maintaining the current conflict - at low level - forever, one thing that for one stops Ukraine to enter NATO. The objective for Russia is to not have NATO at his frontiers.
Also, the series of sanctions related tu the Ukraine situation in a way are a godsend for Russia like PsihoKekec said.
That is one of the motivations. Land, you are right, besides some nice mining areas in Donbass, not a big deal to Russia. Russia is, however, interested in millions of Russian speaking people who happen to live there, ones without Aloha Snackbar tendencies especially, to help patch over their own demographic crisis without creating another, worse set of problems for themselves like EU leaders do.
 

ATP

Well-known member
Israel relationship is business only.

Germany one, well, you probably know something about this matter - if the relationship between them was such that Merkel was willing and able to do something about it, Nordstream 2 would have been suspended or cancelled few years ago, on demand of Crimea or at least Donbass situation being solved favorably to Ukraine.
But this didn't happen, and we must take conclusions out of that not happening. Russia, through Gazprom, has Germany by the balls. Germany is allowed to make all the fuss about human rights they want, shit talk a lot about how much of a mean dictator Putin is and even make lots of sanctions of doubtful utility, but they are not allowed to make any major strategic moves against Russia, unless they want the gas to stop flowing that is. And if the gas stops flowing Germany's prize industry will be very unhappy with the effects of that, and in turn support the election of someone more competent with all the money it has.


That is one of the motivations. Land, you are right, besides some nice mining areas in Donbass, not a big deal to Russia. Russia is, however, interested in millions of Russian speaking people who happen to live there, ones without Aloha Snackbar tendencies especially, to help patch over their own demographic crisis without creating another, worse set of problems for themselves like EU leaders do.


So,Germany are not Russia ally,but minor partner ? Bismarck and Frederick must roll in their graves.
Well,every Empire must fade.I thought that german is still alive.Pity.
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder
Germany needs cheap gas from Russia. The US can't provide the necessary quantities and its gas is much more costly.
We'll see how long that lasts once Poland gets its civie nuke industry operational.

Because cheap electricity from Polish nuclear plants seems a good way to ref ce German dependence on Gazprom.
 

paulobrito

Well-known member
We'll see how long that lasts once Poland gets its civie nuke industry operational.

Because cheap electricity from Polish nuclear plants seems a good way to ref ce German dependence on Gazprom.
Poland doesn't have the money to build enough nuclear plants for that. Not by a long shot.
If Germany wants / can go that way they go, but the Greens & Cº don't let these nuclear plants be built in Germany, so...
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder
Poland doesn't have the money to build enough nuclear plants for that. Not by a long shot.
As of now, no.

But after the first reactors come online and turn Poland into an energy sector player, that is likely to change.

A lot of people will be happier to buy energy from Poland than Russia.
 

Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member
Germany needs cheap gas from Russia. The US can't provide the necessary quantities and its gas is much more costly.
Yeah, and that's just the beginning. Part of it is pipeline being cheaper than running tankers.
And the other part is very different organization of government-energy industry relationship.
In USA, private companies extract gas on concession and sell it at market price to everyone who can pay it, at least everyone not sanctioned at the time.
US government can buy it and resell to someone cheaper or give it freely, but it still has to pay, and that means going through full political process and the PR issue of giving free money to other countries.

In Russia, it is different. Gas is extracted by Gazprom, which is a company mostly owned by, and as such, controlled by the Russian government. As such, it can act in direct synchronization with diplomatic goals of Russian government. Whatever supply deals the Russian governments wish signed or not will be signed or not. They will also be broken or disrupted the moment Russian government decides that this is the course of action it wants.

We'll see how long that lasts once Poland gets its civie nuke industry operational.

Because cheap electricity from Polish nuclear plants seems a good way to ref ce German dependence on Gazprom.
Poland doesn't have the money to build enough nuclear plants for that. Not by a long shot.
Yup. The current struggle is to get the bloody first plant built. And by the time multiple ones are built, all their capacity, cheap or not so cheap (even countries with more experience in this are not doing a great job of making nuclear power particularly cheap, making it average priced is enough of an ambitious goal), will be necessary for domestic needs, because the EU is being a massive pain over our heavy reliance on coal power. Assuming it goes well so far, no one screws anything up, and politicians don't get bullied or bribed by Germany, EU and their green zealots into following a more politically correct energy sector model, exporting nuclear power is something we may get to talk about in 30 to 40 years.
So,Germany are not Russia ally,but minor partner ? Bismarck and Frederick must roll in their graves.
Well,every Empire must fade.I thought that german is still alive.Pity.
Nations don't have allies, nations have interests, it is an old truth that at least one of them follows.
 

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