Russia(gate/bot) Russia-Ukraine War Political Discussion

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Vaermina

Well-known member
The odds of a china-taiwan conflict being a repeat of the 2022 russia-ukraine war are slim.
China has the same relative level of institutional corruption as Russia, so I wouldn't bet on that.

And that's not even counting that China would have to ship all it's forces across a hundred miles of ocean before they could even hit land.
 

Cherico

Well-known member
China has the same relative level of institutional corruption as Russia, so I wouldn't bet on that.

And that's not even counting that China would have to ship all it's forces across a hundred miles of ocean before they could even hit land.

no he's actually correct.

Ukraine is right next door to russia has easily invadable geography so the logistics are much easier.

Taiwan is seperated from China by a strait and has much more defensable geography and there are only a few points which can be used for invasion which are all guarded and watched. It also is a developed nation which has spent over 50 years preparing for a chinese invasion and unlike Ukraine has been officially hooked into a western alliance network for generations now.

There is pretty much no way it would be a repeat of Ukraine all of the factors are different and China would pay a much larger cost in blood and treasure.
 

Terthna

Professional Lurker
no he's actually correct.

Ukraine is right next door to russia has easily invadable geography so the logistics are much easier.

Taiwan is seperated from China by a strait and has much more defensable geography and there are only a few points which can be used for invasion which are all guarded and watched. It also is a developed nation which has spent over 50 years preparing for a chinese invasion and unlike Ukraine has been officially hooked into a western alliance network for generations now.

There is pretty much no way it would be a repeat of Ukraine all of the factors are different and China would pay a much larger cost in blood and treasure.
The CCP would have one advantage over Russia though; they essentially own large swaths of the West's political, economic, media, and academic classes thanks to decades of extensive bribery.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
The CCP would have one advantage over Russia though; they essentially own large swaths of the West's political, economic, media, and academic classes thanks to decades of extensive bribery.
I mean, that is why China is the main threat.
The US military has China as bad guy number 1
 

LordsFire

Internet Wizard
The CCP would have one advantage over Russia though; they essentially own large swaths of the West's political, economic, media, and academic classes thanks to decades of extensive bribery.

Given that Biden has continued Trump's tough-on-China policies, and escalated them, they haven't bribed up enough.

Also, for all the shit Russia was up to before the war in Ukraine, they weren't up to anything like the Uighur and Fallun Gong genocides. A lot of people have sat up and taken notice of that shit, and are hardline anti-CCP.
 

Terthna

Professional Lurker
The money is running out and their economy is set to implode this decade. They cant afford to continue the bribes.
Sadly, we don't seem to be far behind in that regard. Practically the whole world's economies are heading for a major collapse, if the idiots in charge aren't replaced by people who actually know what they're doing.
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder
Sadly, we don't seem to be far behind in that regard. Practically the whole world's economies are heading for a major collapse, if the idiots in charge aren't replaced by people who actually know what they're doing.
You mistake purposeful, 'managed decline' policies for stupidity.

Think disguised hospice care for nation-states, where those on top get out with their golden parachutes or the problem out lives them by making the plebs accept shittier and shittier conditions indefinitely.

The Left understand the destruction they reap, and most of it is on purpose, in service of the utopia they believe they can achieve, if they can manage and survive the collapse of the current nation that calls itself the US.

Stopping the decline...that's more than just an economic or social issue. It's figuring out how to handle shit like AI, mass digital banking, declining populations, abusive politico-corpo culture in DC, and crumbling infrastructure almost everywhere.

Sometimes a peon missteps, or things like Musk taking over Twitter, can cause unplanned events that upset the schemes of those managing the decline. But betting the future on black swan events is a very, very risky gamble.
 

Husky_Khan

The Dog Whistler... I mean Whisperer.
Founder
United Russia is proposing an easing of child labor restrictions due to the ongoing effects of the Invasion of Ukraine. Fourteen to eighteen year olds maybe able to start working without permission of social service agencies, only their parents or legal guardians.

 

Tiamat

I've seen the future...
Sadly, we don't seem to be far behind in that regard. Practically the whole world's economies are heading for a major collapse, if the idiots in charge aren't replaced by people who actually know what they're doing.

In other words, according to Terthna:
634f2c205fd30b36ad9c4336316b2214_w200.gif
 

ATP

Well-known member
Sadly, we don't seem to be far behind in that regard. Practically the whole world's economies are heading for a major collapse, if the idiots in charge aren't replaced by people who actually know what they're doing.

They knew,what they are doing.And think,that could have controlled disaster which gave them power to rule over our nations for eternity.Maybe they are right,we would see.
 

AmosTrask

Well-known member
United Russia is proposing an easing of child labor restrictions due to the ongoing effects of the Invasion of Ukraine. Fourteen to eighteen year olds maybe able to start working without permission of social service agencies, only their parents or legal guardians.

That's a classic indicator of a looming economic and demographic collapse. They've conscripted the 16 to 60 year old workers, some of them older.

To roles they were never trained for. Those old soldiers had their records altered by their commanders so while they were discharged as grunts. On paper they are specialists and thus entitled to higher pensions. Pensions are sent to Oblast military commanders directly for disbursement. They pay the soldiers their normal pension and pocket the difference. This war has fucked them over bad. These recalled soldiers are being sent to their on paper specialist unit when they are completely untrained for it. There are a horde of videos of these soldiers complaining about being ordered to carry out specialist assignments they have no clue on. Entire units of air defense and artillery with untrained "specialists" some of them blowing themselves up by accident or destroying multimillion dollar equipment by pressing the wrong controls. Yikes!
 

Cherico

Well-known member
And yet dispite all of this incompetence the Russians can still win in theory based on raw numbers alone but then they won't be able to fight the next war and win.

Because Poland and the balts will be ready and have friends
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder
And yet dispite all of this incompetence the Russians can still win in theory based on raw numbers alone but then they won't be able to fight the next war and win.

Because Poland and the balts will be ready and have friends
Oh FFS, modern warfare does not work in such a way raw manpower, most of it untrained or barely trained, actually can win wars anymore.

Particularly when sanctions have gutted Russia's ability to replace the equipment they need for higher end warfare.

The only reason Russia was so fearsome in WW2 was because US Lend-Lease was propping them up; notice what the Russian's are lacking this time.
 

Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member
And yet dispite all of this incompetence the Russians can still win in theory based on raw numbers alone but then they won't be able to fight the next war and win.

Because Poland and the balts will be ready and have friends
If that was how warfare worked, China would have controlled Vietnam, United Korea and many other places right now.
They are on the attack, their logistics suck, and they are forced to equip most of their huge numbers of barely trained manpower with roughly Vietnam era equipment, poorly maintained at that.
It's also a reason why they keep trying to freeze the conflict again. A few months to a year of ceasefire would allow them to somewhat unfuck the logistical, training and organizational issues, which would in turn allow them at least a couple weeks of effective offensive on the unfreezing before the logistics and organization would start to fall apart again. Which is precisely why Ukraine is opposed to letting them catch a breath in this way.
 

Cherico

Well-known member
If that was how warfare worked, China would have controlled Vietnam, United Korea and many other places right now.
They are on the attack, their logistics suck, and they are forced to equip most of their huge numbers of barely trained manpower with roughly Vietnam era equipment, poorly maintained at that.
It's also a reason why they keep trying to freeze the conflict again. A few months to a year of ceasefire would allow them to somewhat unfuck the logistical, training and organizational issues, which would in turn allow them at least a couple weeks of effective offensive on the unfreezing before the logistics and organization would start to fall apart again. Which is precisely why Ukraine is opposed to letting them catch a breath in this way.

With Vietnam lets face facts China came close during several periods of time, the people of vietnam are unbelivably hardcore.

The Korean war was a hard fight a really hard fight and we litterally had to threaten them with nukes to get them to back off. That said while numbers help their not everything.

I do hope the Ukranians win this but on the other hand their going to have to kill a whole hell of a lot of russians before they back down.
 

AmosTrask

Well-known member
Wahoo! Kherson is Liberated! As usual the Russians panicked and routed. Blowing the bridge early and trapping thousands of their own troops in Kherson. You've got to love that Russian incompetence.

And yet dispite all of this incompetence the Russians can still win in theory based on raw numbers alone but then they won't be able to fight the next war and win.

Because Poland and the balts will be ready and have friends
This is the fourth time you've stated this. This is not how modern warfare works. Human wave attacks died with the first World War.
 

Cherico

Well-known member
This is the fourth time you've stated this. This is not how modern warfare works. Human wave attacks died with the first World War.

I never said that they would use human wave tactics, contrary to popular belief the chinese didn't use them either, but the fact is the Russians do out number the Ukrainians by quite a bit. And having more troops then the other guy is a solid advantage. The russians actually went into this war with a lot of advantages.

And then screwed up so much through shear incompetence.
 
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