So about that Kharkiv CounterOffensive last week. Some analysis from people brainier then me.
So Perun actually released a video on the war including the recent Kharkiv Counter-Offensive. Some revelations which actually were mentioned on social media like Telegram and Twitter before but are compiled in this video are how the Ukrainian armored spearhead that broke through the Russian lines was potentially "only" fifteen tanks.
Keeping in mind, fifteen tanks in one place is a big deal. But so is losing over a hundred tanks in a single counteroffensive.
It seems like the Ukrainians, in spite of Russian media reports that they had no army yet, and the widespread knowledge that their forces were severely undermechanized, were able to deceive Russian Intelligence as to their Kharkiv Counter-Offensive. As I posted before, various pro-Russian social media accounts mentioned a potential buildup threatening the Izyum axis so Russia was aware of it, but they didn't act on it, shifting significant forces to the very publicized counter-offensive in Kherson. An example of Counter-Intelligence.
Ukrainian Offensive Potential in Kharkiv was a "Known Unknown" so to speak.
The spearhead of the Ukrainian force of fifteen tanks was backed by apparent extensive use of partisans, special forces and other light infantry forces behind the lines who spread disinformation, panic and chaos in Russian rear areas. You'd see pictures, geolocated, of Ukrainian forces miles behind Russian frontlines taking pictures next to city signs and landmarks which spread more misinformation. You'd have Russian Army forces and Separatist militias fleeing while Rosgvardia convoys blunder into ambushes and reinforcements are getting unexpectedly mauled. And Ukrainian brought in a lot of mobile air assets that negated the Russian Air Force.
This problem with the Russia forces in Ukraine was a known thing and long predicted by many commentators in that Russia's forces are increasingly hollowed out. Even the 1st Guards Tank Army which is Russia's elite formation meant to defend Moscow and smash NATO in case of a war.
A thread by Rob Lee explaining back in April how Russia was grinding away its best troops (and troops in general) for incremental gains during their War in the Donbass and how this was simply unsustainable and even the static attrition of the War would cause Russian forces to increasingly hollow out. A near perfect example of a 'Pyrrhic' victory.
A Twitter Thread on how Russia was aware of Ukrainian preparations in Kharkiv but failed to effectively prepare or react to it. One of the major reasons was due to the chaotic and hodgepodge nature of the Russian military now. You had LDNR (seperatist) troops who made up a large portion of the defenders, as well as elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army (with other formations sent southward), Internal Troops from the Rosgvardia, Spetsnaz, PMC's and various volunteer battalions creating a lot of friction. There was strong 'horizontal' ties between the units which worked when the progress was slow or static but shattered during the Counter-Offensive and no vertical leadership to manage everything.
Jomini of the West compared this to the 1973 Israeli Counter-Offensives of the Yom Kippur War, specifically Operation Gazelle which mauled Egyptian forces in the Sinai Peninsula.
