Taiwan Straights Tension

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
Read what I wrote. Competent enemy.

Iraq does not count.
Hint neither has Russia till now or China.
And the US at least experience in warfare and knows what works and doesn't against militaries and the like.
And unlike Russia, the US didn't have to pay off to win two of Ota wars.
 

Aldarion

Neoreactionary Monarchist
Hint neither has Russia till now or China.
And the US at least experience in warfare and knows what works and doesn't against militaries and the like.
And unlike Russia, the US didn't have to pay off to win two of Ota wars.

I am aware. Russia has not fought a competent conventional opponent until Ukraine (hence all the flaws), and China has also not fought one since the Korean War.

But no, US does not know what works and doesn't against militaries and the like. What worked against the Iraq will not work against a competent modern military. The only thing that Iraqi War and other conflicts have shown is US ability to deploy a significant military force to a friendly country, and that is it. Which is important, but not enough.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
I am aware. Russia has not fought a competent conventional opponent until Ukraine (hence all the flaws), and China has also not fought one since the Korean War.

But no, US does not know what works and doesn't against militaries and the like. What worked against the Iraq will not work against a competent modern military. The only thing that Iraqi War and other conflicts have shown is US ability to deploy a significant military force to a friendly country, and that is it. Which is important, but not enough.
Except we know how effective out arms will be.
Thanks to Ukraine.
We know how ineffective Russia is.
Which is important.
We have the most experienced and trained military in the world.
 

AnimalNoodles

Well-known member
You forget that USA has wiped the floor with Iranian Navy, a bit more competent one than Iraq, which is quite relevant here.

It's a bad case of "so fucking what".
Compare to Iraq's numbers of relatively modern hardware during Desert Storm.
Case closed.
For example of how looking at bare numbers is inaccurate, 3 carriers.
Why not mention that their all 3 carriers combined have a fixed wing complement similar in number to one wartime load Nimitz class, and more likely than not, those are inferior aircraft at that.

China does not have 'relatively' modern hardware. Their navy is quite new. They literally put 600,000 tonnes of new ships into the water in just 4 years.

And as for the aircraft carriers..I said the east china sea, which will be within range of China's own airforce and ASM envelope.

No, china cant challenge american naval supremacy in the pacific..yet. They lack experience, logistics and weight. But they can absolutely contest the east china sea and straits between taiwan and china.
 

Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member
China does not have 'relatively' modern hardware. Their navy is quite new. They literally put 600,000 tonnes of new ships into the water in just 4 years.
New doesn't necessarily mean technologically advanced. North Korea also has a lot of "new" tanks, doesn't mean they are equals to M1A2.
Remember the mantra. Steel is cheap, silicon is expensive.
Pumping out a lot of hulls isn't so impressive anymore, look at the civilian shipbuilding of relatively small South Korea.
It's what you put into those hulls that really matters for warships. That's the difference between modern destroyers and the WW2 fleets that went into hundreds of ships.
If China wanted to make a point, they could easily build a thousand ship navy... or even 2 thousand... disregarding quality.
And as for the aircraft carriers..I said the east china sea, which will be within range of China's own airforce and ASM envelope.
It does demonstrate the weakness of your numbers argument.
No, china cant challenge american naval supremacy in the pacific..yet. They lack experience, logistics and weight. But they can absolutely contest the east china sea and straits between taiwan and china.
In quantity, certainly. At least when you don't count in Japan and SK.
In quality, that's more complicated.
 
Last edited:

Husky_Khan

The Dog Whistler... I mean Whisperer.
Founder
Sotnik
This kinda seems to be the source of Chinese Missiles overflying Taiwan. It doesn't specifally state overflight, just that missile targets will be Easy of Taiwan. So it could be but it's not some sort of guarantee or vow to do as much.

 

AnimalNoodles

Well-known member
New doesn't necessarily mean technologically advanced. North Korea also has a lot of "new" tanks, doesn't mean they are equals to M1A2.
Remember the mantra. Steel is cheap, silicon is expensive.
Pumping out a lot of hulls isn't so impressive anymore, look at the civilian shipbuilding of relatively small South Korea.
It's what you put into those hulls that really matters for warships. That's the difference between modern destroyers and the WW2 fleets that went into hundreds of ships.
If China wanted to make a point, they could easily build a thousand ship navy... or even 2 thousand... disregarding quality.

It does demonstrate the weakness of your numbers argument.

In quantity, certainly. At least when you don't count in Japan and SK.
In quality, that's more complicated.

China's newer ships are broadly equivalent to your own, with phased array radar, vertically launched ASMs, weighing 5000 tonnes or so, backed by the worlds largest shipbuilding industry. China's type 055 for example is every bit as good as anything anywhere, and their type 52 destroyers are on par with current american destroyers.

And over the next 10 years, they will be putting over 100 of them into the water, with new supercarriers under construction.
 

The Whispering Monk

Well-known member
Osaul
China's newer ships are broadly equivalent to your own, with phased array radar, vertically launched ASMs, weighing 5000 tonnes or so, backed by the worlds largest shipbuilding industry. China's type 055 for example is every bit as good as anything anywhere, and their type 52 destroyers are on par with current american destroyers.
Per whatever specs have been discovered/leaked/published by the CCP. Are they really as capable? Are they built to the same standards...even within their own fleet?
And over the next 10 years, they will be putting over 100 of them into the water, with new supercarriers under construction.
Maybe...if something doesn't steal that money/industry away...or do they get build in true Commie fashion?
 

The Whispering Monk

Well-known member
Osaul
The attack would be the noteworthy part. Pelosi would...maybe...be a footnote. The odds of it happening while she's there...minimal.

Possibly the 'casus beli' for the US outside of Taiwan being invaded...at least one that would motivate the Left.
 

Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member
China's newer ships are broadly equivalent to your own, with phased array radar, vertically launched ASMs, weighing 5000 tonnes or so, backed by the worlds largest shipbuilding industry.
Congratulations, that gives us the US baseline of... about 1990's. First ship based AESA radar was 1988 Japan.
Even before Burkes, Spruances also had VLS launchers.
China's type 055 for example is every bit as good as anything anywhere, and their type 52 destroyers are on par with current american destroyers.
I just fucking pointed out that 52's aren't, just because they are smaller if nothing else, and that's without even getting into the secretive guts.
And over the next 10 years, they will be putting over 100 of them into the water, with new supercarriers under construction.
What kind of "China will grow larger" propaganda bullshit is this?
Planned16
I'll give you that Type 055 *might* be compareable to early flight Burkes technologically while a bit bigger, but USA has 70 Burkes active.
 

Tiamat

I've seen the future...
Kind of a moot point overall as Pelosi has left Taiwan. The promise of “severe punishment” by the Chinese over a visit by the Speaker of the House comes off as the petulant sabre rattling of a neighborhood bully more than anything. Of course, there’s still the “military exercises” China announced…
 

LordsFire

Internet Wizard
China's newer ships are broadly equivalent to your own, with phased array radar, vertically launched ASMs, weighing 5000 tonnes or so, backed by the worlds largest shipbuilding industry. China's type 055 for example is every bit as good as anything anywhere, and their type 52 destroyers are on par with current american destroyers.

And over the next 10 years, they will be putting over 100 of them into the water, with new supercarriers under construction.

It's like you've never noticed the history of communist nations when it comes to building war machines. Here, let me illustrate that for you in meme format:

jrurfcS.jpg


This is, of course, the memey version, but it is pretty much exactly on point for the course of the entire Cold War.

And frankly, the only difference between the Cold War, and squaring off against the Soviets, vs squaring off against the CCP now?

The CCP are generally even less competent than the Soviets.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/901984650015162388/1002814608979005470/1659159719119900.webm

I don't know if that's going to load properly, but it shows that the latest generation of Chinese rifles for their infantry are so shit that at ranges of about 20 feet, bullets are tumbling and hitting targets sideways.

American designs from the second half of the 1800's were past that kind of problem.

There is a chance that the CCP's much vaunted massive military build-up is going to be much more formidable than what any other Communists have ever managed. So, in order to do due diligence, the USA and allies will treat the threat as legitimate, and will/has been working to counter the growth in Chinese military strength?

The more likely scenario though?

The leaks that Chinese aircraft carriers can't consistently do full take-off and landing cycles without damaging or losing aircraft are true. The fact that their military officers spend more time getting political indoctrination than actually learning how to fight wars results in them being exactly as incompetent as expected. The cultural suppression of initiative will make them just as ineffective as the French were during WWI, probably even less so. They have less than half as many of their vaunted J-20's ready to fly than they claim, and those that can are only capable of 20 hours in the air before their engines (inferior substitutes for the intended engines that they still can't mass produce) need a complete rebuild.

The institutionalization of lying within communist culture means that most privates are less capable than their Platoon CO thinks, and he's lying to his superior, who's lying to his, who's lying to his, and each General has a distorted picture of their training level and combat capability, which they then lie to the party about being even better to make them look good.

The human wave tactics that the PLA used (and got butchered for) in Korea won't work when crossing a chunk of ocean to get to Taiwan, and PGMs basically didn't exist during Korea, nor submunitions, meaning that they'll be even less effective than they were back then.

At least as large a proportion of Chinese military hardware will not work or will not work properly, as has been seen with Russian hardware in Ukraine. Probably more.


These things are not certain, but the track record of communist armies is ugly.

Have you ever seen Enemy At The Gates? Seen how it (fairly accurately) depicts the Red Army as being so insanely poorly equipped that they would only give every other man a rifle, before ordering them to charge prepared enemy positions, and using machine guns to slaughter those that tried to retreat?

Moving towards free markets between ~1990 and ~2015 has made China wealthy enough that their supply situations aren't that desperate, but the underlying institutional corruption, moral rot, and utter contempt for human life that resulted in those insane policies are all very much in place, because the CCP is Communist.


The most likely result of the CCP getting into a shooting war with the US is either them backing down and suing for peace really quickly, or within the month their entire air force is shot down, and their entire navy is sunk.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top