The future German Kaiser Wilhelm II dies young in 1880

WolfBear

Well-known member
What if the future German Kaiser Wilhelm II would have died young in 1880, such as the result of an accident or of some kind of infectious disease or whatever? What kind of German Kaiser would his younger brother Heinrich have been once their grandfather and father would have both passed away, still likely in 1888 in this TL? For instance, would Heinrich have managed to secure an Anglo-German alliance in this TL? If so, would there have even been a WWI in this TL? Just how much German naval expansion will there be in this TL relative to German army expansion and German air force expansion? What will Germany's relations with France, Russia, Italy, Austria-Hungary, and the Ottoman Empire be like in this TL?

One thing worth noting is that if Heinrich still gets the same bride in this TL, then hemophilia would be introduced into the German royal family just like it was introduced into the Russian royal family since Heinrich's wife Irene and Nicholas II's wife Alexandra (Alix) were sisters who both carried the hemophilia gene. If Heinrich's eldest son is a hemophiliac and will not die young, then there could be problems for the long-term stability of the succession of the German throne. (It's unclear if Heinrich's eldest son will actually be a hemophiliac in this TL due to the butterfly effect.) Might the hemophiliac eldest son be pressured to renounce his right to succeed to the German throne in this TL if there will be a spare, non-hemophiliac, younger son? And could a German version of Rasputin ever emerge in this TL?

Any thoughts on all of this? @sillygoose
 

stevep

Well-known member
@stevep @raharris1973 @Skallagrim @Zyobot @ATP What do you think about this AH question of mine?

Difficult to tell as I don't know enough about Heinrich. Wilhelm had issues with his father and mother than seemed to drive his hostility/envy to Britain but if Heinrich had a different set of values a lot could have changed. As ATP said there were social elements that would be likely to prompt the OTL German expansionism and hence alienation of their neighbours but there were others that might have pushed in other directions. For instance while some of the big economic interests found profits in expanded military spending a lot did not. Plus as recently as the early 1860's tension between a reactionary monarch and a liberal parliament had nearly led to the former's abdication which would have prompted a considerably different Prussia in the vital 1860's period.

By 1914 most players feared war was inevitable and hence sought to have it occur in conditions which they thought favourable to their nation/bloc but this was considerably different in 1880.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Difficult to tell as I don't know enough about Heinrich. Wilhelm had issues with his father and mother than seemed to drive his hostility/envy to Britain but if Heinrich had a different set of values a lot could have changed. As ATP said there were social elements that would be likely to prompt the OTL German expansionism and hence alienation of their neighbours but there were others that might have pushed in other directions. For instance while some of the big economic interests found profits in expanded military spending a lot did not. Plus as recently as the early 1860's tension between a reactionary monarch and a liberal parliament had nearly led to the former's abdication which would have prompted a considerably different Prussia in the vital 1860's period.

By 1914 most players feared war was inevitable and hence sought to have it occur in conditions which they thought favourable to their nation/bloc but this was considerably different in 1880.

FWIW, Heinrich would not become Kaiser until around 1888, if his grandfather and father both die on schedule.


William inherited a conflict between Frederick William and the liberal Landtag. He was considered to be politically neutral as he intervened less in politics than his brother. In 1862 the Landtag refused an increase in the military budget needed to pay for the already implemented reform of the army. This involved raising the peacetime army from 150,000 to 200,000 men and boost the annual number of new recruits from 40,000 to 63,000. However, the truly controversial part was the plan to keep the length of military service (raised in 1856 from two years) at three years.[8] When his request, backed by his Minister of War Albrecht von Roon was refused, William first considered abdicating, but his son, the Crown Prince, advised strongly against it.[8] Then, on the advice of Roon, William appointed Otto von Bismarck to the office of Minister President in order to force through the proposals.[3] According to the Prussian constitution, the Minister President was responsible solely to the king, not to the Landtag. Bismarck, a conservative Prussian Junker and loyal friend of the king, liked to see his working relationship with William as that of a vassal to his feudal superior. Nonetheless, it was Bismarck who effectively directed the politics, domestic as well as foreign; on several occasions he gained William's assent by threatening to resign.[9]

Interesting.

Anyway, the reason that I was asking about Heinrich here is because I was wondering if, with him as the German Kaiser, a Germano-British alliance might become considerably more likely. If the Franco-Russians are still going to ally sooner or later, then it would make sense for Germany to secure Britain as an ally, no? I also wonder about German war strategy: Might, under Heinrich and his generals, Germany aim to adopt a defensive position in the west and a limited offensive in the East followed by a defensive position there as well in any alt-WWI? It would deny Germany the chance of a quick victory but would make a compromise peace much more likely, especially if Germany offers a return to the status quo ante bellum.

I also wonder what the effects of introducing hemophilia into the German royal family are going to be if Heinrich still marries Princess Irene in this TL.
 

stevep

Well-known member
FWIW, Heinrich would not become Kaiser until around 1888, if his grandfather and father both die on schedule.




Interesting.

Anyway, the reason that I was asking about Heinrich here is because I was wondering if, with him as the German Kaiser, a Germano-British alliance might become considerably more likely. If the Franco-Russians are still going to ally sooner or later, then it would make sense for Germany to secure Britain as an ally, no? I also wonder about German war strategy: Might, under Heinrich and his generals, Germany aim to adopt a defensive position in the west and a limited offensive in the East followed by a defensive position there as well in any alt-WWI? It would deny Germany the chance of a quick victory but would make a compromise peace much more likely, especially if Germany offers a return to the status quo ante bellum.

I also wonder what the effects of introducing hemophilia into the German royal family are going to be if Heinrich still marries Princess Irene in this TL.

Well the best option for friendly Anglo-German relations would probably be his father Frederick not dying of cancer so soon after he came to the throne as he was an Anglophile and married to one of Victoria's daughters. Although then unless Wilhelm dies or changes his attitude considerably your probably going to have tensions when he comes to the throne.

Since Britain had traditional rivalries and tensions with both France and Russia along with regional issues in imperial areas then if/when Germany and Russia fall out an alliance with Britain is an obvious choice. One problem here was the British approach of splendid isolation under Lord Salisbury in 1885-1902. The government took the view of keeping aloft from the continent - which was a serious break with British tradition and in hindsight not the brightest move. By the time the leadership changed in 1902 Wilhelm had been in power in Germany and there was tensions rising over his policies. Plus the death of Victoria in 1901 weakened links to a lot of German nobles and also probably reduced British prestige in the country while bringing the more Francophile Edward VII to the throne. There were attempts, especially by Joseph Chamberlain and also as I think HL or SG posted informal ones but they fell on barren ground in Germany by that time.

If Heinrich marries Irene then an introduction of hemophilia into the German imperial family could weaken it, especially if the male heir inherited the disease.You would have issues of the future of the dynasty, or at least that monarch under such conditions and you could end up, if a younger son was free of the problem the title being passed to him.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Well the best option for friendly Anglo-German relations would probably be his father Frederick not dying of cancer so soon after he came to the throne as he was an Anglophile and married to one of Victoria's daughters. Although then unless Wilhelm dies or changes his attitude considerably your probably going to have tensions when he comes to the throne.

Since Britain had traditional rivalries and tensions with both France and Russia along with regional issues in imperial areas then if/when Germany and Russia fall out an alliance with Britain is an obvious choice. One problem here was the British approach of splendid isolation under Lord Salisbury in 1885-1902. The government took the view of keeping aloft from the continent - which was a serious break with British tradition and in hindsight not the brightest move. By the time the leadership changed in 1902 Wilhelm had been in power in Germany and there was tensions rising over his policies. Plus the death of Victoria in 1901 weakened links to a lot of German nobles and also probably reduced British prestige in the country while bringing the more Francophile Edward VII to the throne. There were attempts, especially by Joseph Chamberlain and also as I think HL or SG posted informal ones but they fell on barren ground in Germany by that time.

If Heinrich marries Irene then an introduction of hemophilia into the German imperial family could weaken it, especially if the male heir inherited the disease.You would have issues of the future of the dynasty, or at least that monarch under such conditions and you could end up, if a younger son was free of the problem the title being passed to him.

Or you could simply have Kaiser Heinrich keep a friendly posture towards Kaiser Frederick (Friedrich) III's death if Frederick III dies on schedule in 1888 and Wilhelm still dies young. ;)

I just wonder if Heinrich could have maintained Germany's reputation in Britain after 1901-1902 if his naval program (he might still have one due to him being a huge navy fan) won't be as brash and abrasive towards British sensitivities and security as Wilhelm II's was. I would think that Heinrich might aim to get more buy-in from Britain for his naval program before deciding how to implement it, you know? No need to piss off a powerful country like Britain, you know?

Yeah, that makes sense; pressuring any hemophiliac heir-apparent to renounce their right to the German throne so that a healthier younger son, assuming that there actually is one (which is very possible but not guaranteed--see Russian Tsar Nicholas II) could inherit the German throne after Heinrich's death instead.

I wonder what kind of relations Heinrich will have with both the Ottoman Empire and with Austria-Hungary, both with Franz Joseph and with whomever will succeed him, which will be either Franz Ferdinand, Karl, or a son of Crown Prince Rudolf if he has a son instead of a daughter in 1883 (like he had in real life).
 

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