The Kaiser's World: Speculating on a German victory in 1918

WolfBear

Well-known member
Germany had a large lead in physics, and here would be so economically powerful I would have no doubt about it becoming the first nuclear power. With regards to H&L, it's a good question to which I have no answer. Hindenburg seems likely to retire as a Foch/Petain figure, while "L" is an open ended question.

A relevant question is whether H, L, or KWII will get most of the credit for Germany's WWI victory in this TL.
 

History Learner

Well-known member
A relevant question is whether H, L, or KWII will get most of the credit for Germany's WWI victory in this TL.

Hindenburg had no real aspirations beyond what he thought necessary, so he would be an asset to the Crown. Ludendorff is impossible to speculate upon, but I doubt he would pose a real risk to the Crown.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Hindenburg had no real aspirations beyond what he thought necessary, so he would be an asset to the Crown. Ludendorff is impossible to speculate upon, but I doubt he would pose a real risk to the Crown.

Makes sense.

BTW, which additional European countries do you see going republican sooner or later in this TL?
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Adam Tooze directly notes the Reichstag had lost its ability to fully reign in the Army by 1918, and certainly the Social Democrats were powerless to stop the Hereo Genocide in 1912. Really though, you don't need Eastern Front level atrocities; the Germans held a comparatively lighter hand in Western Europe, which is the focus of Chapter 3 of the book, to great effect for themselves.

FWIW, my speculation here is that the German Army is not going to be able to have an unlimited carte blanche in German foreign policy forever in the absence of non-stop warfare, and non-stop warfare is simply going to result in an inevitable revolution back at home in Germany since the German workers are not going to want German troops returning from Russia in body bags in huge numbers for the sake of having Germany prop up some kind of reactionary puppet regime in Russia. After all, German workers believed that Russian workers also deserved to have the right of national self-determination and to be free from imperialist abuse and exploitation.

And FWIW, I suspect that if the war ends, then the German Reichstag will reassert at least some of its lost authority and will be very skeptical about having Germany start any new wars for fear that, based on their World War I experience, this will simply result in the German military monopolizing power once again and sidelining both the German Reichstag and the toiling German working-class masses.

British control over India was achieved in a much shorter period than a century, really it was a process that took about 30 years to bring most of India under its control. Aiding the German effort is they want puppet states, rather than direct administration over Russia; economic deals, military limitations on the Russians themselves, etc.

Military limitations on the Russians themselves would actually need to be enforced, which would require German troops. What's Germany going to do? Occupy all of Russia in order to stop Russia from remilitarizing? Occupy Russia's main cities? Because that will simply trigger strikes along the lines of what happened in the Ruhr in Germany in 1923-1924 in real life. Good luck having German troops deal with striking Russians. And I doubt that the German workers back at home would be particularly pleased with German troops occupying Russian cities and thus compelling Russian workers to strike simply because Germany doesn't want Russia to have a large army/military. And what happens if Russian rearmament occurs in secret elsewhere, such as in Siberia or in Central Asia? Is Germany going to occupy those places as well?
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
But even in the event that Germany will somehow manage to permanently restrict the size of Russia's military, or to do so until nukes will come along, is Germany permanently going to keep Russia poor, or what? Because even without Ukraine and Belarus, Russia should have something like 300 million Slavs without its extreme 20th century demographic devastation. And it's worth noting that, at their full potential, these Slavs aren't going to be too much duller than Germans themselves are. It's just hard to permanently keep a country of 300 million Slavs (plus 100 million Central Asians) down, at least in an economic sense, unless you're actually somehow going to manage to keep it permanently poor--and good luck with that. But once this country will climb out of poverty and actually reach its full potential, it will be quite a giant power even based on economic principles alone, without ever actually taking any military considerations into this. Its economy would certainly be much larger than Germany's own economy, that's for sure!
 

stevep

Well-known member
Also, some additional questions for @History Learner, @Skallagrim, and @stevep:

1. Is there any realistic way for Germany to eventually become a republic after winning WWI?

2. Is there any realistic way for Germany to keep the Bolsheviks in power in Russia after winning WWI?

3. What will the role of the Jews be in Mitteleuropa after a German WWI victory?

4. Just how much Eastern European (and Central European) immigration to Germany are we going to see between 1918 and 2022 in this TL?

WolfBear

Just to say I was unwell for a while and took a week off the site then only really checked the 1st page when I came back so missed this until now. :oops:

1) It might depend on events. In the short term the best chance of a republic might be what you suggested a couple of posts back. After a long and bloody but ultimately successful war there will be pressure for social change and more rights for ordinary people. If the military seek to keep control and are sending forces all over the place to maintain their spheres of control, especially with a lot of soldiers dying then you could see a violent reaction. There would be a danger of that ending up as an open dictatorship, if either the hard left won or the military and aristocracy still came out on top but it could end up with more moderate elements in control.

2) They could do if they decide they don't need to bother with Russia having hived off the Baltics, Ukraine, Caucasus and possibly some other areas. Working on the basis their less of a threat than the white's winning. In that case and with no aid reaching the Whites other than possibly Japan - Germany being unwilling to and Britain lacking resources and access then the Reds are likely to win.

3) Impossible to say depending on the circumstances. OTL it was drawing a lot of Poles into industrial areas, although they faced some discrimination. Could draw in people from elsewhere or rely on their own population. There was relatively little non-European migration to European states - and not a massive internal movement disasters aside - prior to 1945 onward. Would depend on how Germany, Europe and the world developed.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
WolfBear

Just to say I was unwell for a while and took a week off the site then only really checked the 1st page when I came back so missed this until now. :oops:

1) It might depend on events. In the short term the best chance of a republic might be what you suggested a couple of posts back. After a long and bloody but ultimately successful war there will be pressure for social change and more rights for ordinary people. If the military seek to keep control and are sending forces all over the place to maintain their spheres of control, especially with a lot of soldiers dying then you could see a violent reaction. There would be a danger of that ending up as an open dictatorship, if either the hard left won or the military and aristocracy still came out on top but it could end up with more moderate elements in control.

2) They could do if they decide they don't need to bother with Russia having hived off the Baltics, Ukraine, Caucasus and possibly some other areas. Working on the basis their less of a threat than the white's winning. In that case and with no aid reaching the Whites other than possibly Japan - Germany being unwilling to and Britain lacking resources and access then the Reds are likely to win.

3) Impossible to say depending on the circumstances. OTL it was drawing a lot of Poles into industrial areas, although they faced some discrimination. Could draw in people from elsewhere or rely on their own population. There was relatively little non-European migration to European states - and not a massive internal movement disasters aside - prior to 1945 onward. Would depend on how Germany, Europe and the world developed.

I presume that your responses to my questions #3 and #4 were combined into your point #3, correct?
 

stevep

Well-known member
I presume that your responses to my questions #3 and #4 were combined into your point #3, correct?

Duh, totally missed point 3.:oops:

A lot would depend on how things develop in Germany. There have been some suggestions that antisemitism was growing even before the war ended, in part because the Jews were assimilating so well. If so or other reasons are found for people to distrust them or politicians to make the scapegoats it could get bad although unlikely to be anywhere near as bad as under the Nazis. Otherwise they could do quite well in Germany. Which might mean they could suffer in non-Germanic parts of the empire or areas under German control/influence if their seen as too close to Germany. Or things could go pretty well if Germany manages to have successful social change and becomes a fairly liberal state.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Duh, totally missed point 3.:oops:

A lot would depend on how things develop in Germany. There have been some suggestions that antisemitism was growing even before the war ended, in part because the Jews were assimilating so well. If so or other reasons are found for people to distrust them or politicians to make the scapegoats it could get bad although unlikely to be anywhere near as bad as under the Nazis. Otherwise they could do quite well in Germany. Which might mean they could suffer in non-Germanic parts of the empire or areas under German control/influence if their seen as too close to Germany. Or things could go pretty well if Germany manages to have successful social change and becomes a fairly liberal state.

FWIW, Germany did have this Jew census during WWI:


Its results were covered up once it became clear that they weren't what German nationalists wanted.

BTW, could you see an extremely massive migration of Eastern European Jews to Germany proper?
 

stevep

Well-known member
FWIW, Germany did have this Jew census during WWI:


Its results were covered up once it became clear that they weren't what German nationalists wanted.

BTW, could you see an extremely massive migration of Eastern European Jews to Germany proper?

Unfortunately that doesn't surprise me. It seems that even in 1916 elements in the regime were looking for scapegoats for the horrendous costs of the war whether they won or lost. :mad:

Well since things were even worse in the Russian controlled regions large numbers of Jews lived in a limited German victory could see many Jews seeking to move to Germany or other lands where they thought they were safer. [Of course if Germany makes major annexations or establish 'protectorates' as OTL you will have Germany move to those Jews. ;) ] Of course either such case, making the Jews a more substantial minority, especially since most will be unfamiliar with German culture and language, is likely to make antisemitism worse. :( Its the way that human nature at its darkest tends to work.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Of course either such case, making the Jews a more substantial minority, especially since most will be unfamiliar with German culture and language, is likely to make antisemitism worse. :( Its the way that human nature at its darkest tends to work.

Initially, though in the longer-run the Ostjuden could successfully integrate into mainstream German culture.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
@History Learner Question: Just how much support do you think that the victorious CPs will provide to the Basmachi in Central Asia in a TL where the CPs win WWI? I'm wondering if we could see Central Asia be permanently split off from Russia 75 years earlier than in real life in this TL.

Also, just how much immigration will Germany see from Eastern Europe and elsewhere (such as from the Ottoman lands) in the post-WWI century (1918-2022) in a TL where the CPs win WWI?

And just how much more influence will Germany have in shaping the development of Islam in a TL where the CPs win WWI and the Ottoman Empire survives? And would the Ottomans permanently remain a German ally in this TL, or what? I'm especially interested in just how much less severe of a problem radical Islam is going to be in this TL.
 

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