Thoughts on consequences of a total Polish defeat in the Soviet war of 1920

[WolfBear]

Harbors require specific conditions and Memel was the only option for a significant port.

Interesting:

Treaty of Melno - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Provisions[edit]
According to the terms of the treaty, the Teutonic Knights for the first time renounced all territorial, political, and missionary claims against the Grand Duchy of Lithuania.[3] Samogitia was permanently ceded to Lithuania. The Prussian–Lithuanian border ran from sparsely inhabited wilderness in Suvalkija, through the triangle north of the Neman River, to Nemirseta on the Baltic Sea. Thus the Knights still controlled Neman's lower reaches and Memel (Klaipėda), an important seaport and trade center. Lithuania retained access to the Baltic Sea between the towns of Palanga (Polangen)[nb 2] and Šventoji (Heiligen Aa) – a distance of about 15 kilometres (9.3 mi).[7] However, Lithuania failed to develop harbors in Palanga or Šventoji as there was stiff competition with the nearby established ports of Memel and Libau (Liepāja)[8] and unfavorable natural conditions.[9] Thus it could not be considered a real access to the sea.[10]

 

[WolfBear]

@sillygoose I have a question for you: Had the Bolsheviks defeated Poland in 1920, would they have later incorporated Poland into the USSR or made it its own nominally independent Communist country, as they did in 1945?

Also, what effect would a Communist Poland starting from 1920 onwards have on Germany and specifically on any attempt by Adolf Hitler to come to power in Germany later on?

 

[sillygoose]

@sillygoose I have a question for you: Had the Bolsheviks defeated Poland in 1920, would they have later incorporated Poland into the USSR or made it its own nominally independent Communist country, as they did in 1945?

I'm no expert on the USSR in this period, so I'm not sure, but I think passed on the talks with von Seeckt that Lenin intended to just rebuild the Russian Empire territorially, which means no 1945 style puppet Poland, it would be direct incorporation as a Polish SSR.

Also, what effect would a Communist Poland starting from 1920 onwards have on Germany and specifically on any attempt by Adolf Hitler to come to power in Germany later on?

Depends. Von Seeckt ran his own foreign policy and wanted to reestablish the 1914 border with Russia, so I could see that happening, plus the OTL Reichswehr-Soviet cooperation for a while, but then in time things get hostile, as even Lenin said to his own people that working with Seeckt was simply a measure to help the Revolution and in time war with Germany would be inevitable.

Much would depend on the internal politics of the USSR and their policy on constant revolution being their foreign policy. Does Trotsky maintain his position in the USSR? Do the Allies take a more confrontational policy? How do the Weimar politicians react to developments? IMHO there are simply too many variables to do more than lay out several scenarios and sketch them each out and even then acknowledge that with all the butterflies unpredictable things could very well happen that no logical scenario could account for.

Hitler really only came to power because of the Great Depression ultimately. The ToV and consequences helped create Hitler and the Nazi Party, but weren't enough by themselves to get Hitler and the Nazis into power; here the ToV would be partially dismantled by the Soviets, which removes a major obstacle to Weimar's legitimacy, and if trade between the Soviets and Germans picks up afterwards, even if only clandestinely, then the pre-conditions for Hitler's rise could very well be removed and he remains a fringe politician who ultimately gets nowhere as Germany is reintegrated into the world order quickly and is left with few complaints about the new order. Plus if it allows Germany to get more trade early on and avoid the worst of reparations payments and military limitations to ensure that they don't fall to Soviet aggression after Poland falls then Weimar could well end up too stable to face the issues that ultimately collapsed public support for the government.

I do wonder if there might more support for Briand's European Union once France loses its major ally in the east and the Soviets could prefer working with Germany rather than France; Britain would be highly alarmed and probably look at Germany as her continental proxy/bulwark in the east, so with the US could well end up pressuring France to cut deals with Germany. If that happens then it is virtually guaranteed the Nazis never rise above a fringe party and even Hitler's 1920s coup attempt in Bavaria never even gets off the ground.

 

[WolfBear]

I'm no expert on the USSR in this period, so I'm not sure, but I think passed on the talks with von Seeckt that Lenin intended to just rebuild the Russian Empire territorially, which means no 1945 style puppet Poland, it would be direct incorporation as a Polish SSR.

And ditto for Finland, I'd presume?

Depends. Von Seeckt ran his own foreign policy and wanted to reestablish the 1914 border with Russia, so I could see that happening, plus the OTL Reichswehr-Soviet cooperation for a while, but then in time things get hostile, as even Lenin said to his own people that working with Seeckt was simply a measure to help the Revolution and in time war with Germany would be inevitable.

Much would depend on the internal politics of the USSR and their policy on constant revolution being their foreign policy. Does Trotsky maintain his position in the USSR? Do the Allies take a more confrontational policy? How do the Weimar politicians react to developments? IMHO there are simply too many variables to do more than lay out several scenarios and sketch them each out and even then acknowledge that with all the butterflies unpredictable things could very well happen that no logical scenario could account for.

Hitler really only came to power because of the Great Depression ultimately. The ToV and consequences helped create Hitler and the Nazi Party, but weren't enough by themselves to get Hitler and the Nazis into power; here the ToV would be partially dismantled by the Soviets, which removes a major obstacle to Weimar's legitimacy, and if trade between the Soviets and Germans picks up afterwards, even if only clandestinely, then the pre-conditions for Hitler's rise could very well be removed and he remains a fringe politician who ultimately gets nowhere as Germany is reintegrated into the world order quickly and is left with few complaints about the new order. Plus if it allows Germany to get more trade early on and avoid the worst of reparations payments and military limitations to ensure that they don't fall to Soviet aggression after Poland falls then Weimar could well end up too stable to face the issues that ultimately collapsed public support for the government.

You're thinking of the Anglo-French easing the reparations burden on Germany in order to make Germany a stronger bulwark against the USSR and in order to avoid having Germany be too chummy with the USSR, right?

I do wonder if there might more support for Briand's European Union once France loses its major ally in the east and the Soviets could prefer working with Germany rather than France; Britain would be highly alarmed and probably look at Germany as her continental proxy/bulwark in the east, so with the US could well end up pressuring France to cut deals with Germany. If that happens then it is virtually guaranteed the Nazis never rise above a fringe party and even Hitler's 1920s coup attempt in Bavaria never even gets off the ground.

Interesting. Sounds very plausible, frankly.

 

[sillygoose]

And ditto for Finland, I'd presume?

AFAIK yes.

You're thinking of the Anglo-French easing the reparations burden on Germany in order to make Germany a stronger bulwark against the USSR and in order to avoid having Germany be too chummy with the USSR, right?

Yes.

 

[WolfBear]

AFAIK yes.


Yes.

OK.

Also, do the Baltic countries go Communist in the early 1920s in this TL?

 

[sillygoose]

Also, do the Baltic countries go Communist in the early 1920s in this TL?

If you're talking about the original scenario of Poland being totally defeated then likely yes because the Reichswehr leadership cut a deal with Lenin to let him restore the Russian Empire's territory.