What if the Teutonic Order won the Battle of Grunwald, 1410?

Circle of Willis

Well-known member
Context. Long story short, the battle was one of the largest (if not THE largest) and most decisive in late medieval Eastern Europe, and set the stage for Polish-Lithuanian ascendancy over the next few centuries while also dooming the Teutonic Order to decline (and, eventually, its transformation into the Protestant Prussian duchy).

At one point in the hard-fought battle, a Teutonic knight named Diepold von Kokeritz launched into a dramatic charge at the position of the Polish king, Wladyslaw Jagiellon (who was also previously Grand Duke of Lithuania, and cousin to the incumbent Grand Duke Vytautas), just as the latter was committing the Polish reserves to the fight. He almost killed the king, but was stopped by Wladyslaw's secretary and future Cardinal Zbigniew Olesnicki. The Lithuanians, who had retreated earlier in the battle, returned sometime after this episode and stomped the Teutons flat between themselves and their Polish allies. Grand Master Ulrich von Jungingen was among the many, many Teutonic knights who lay dead at the battle's end and the Teutons lost their strength to not only contend with the Polish-Lithuanian alliance, but also to control their restive subjects. (In fact, the spark for this entire war was an anti-Teutonic revolt in Samogitia, which was supported by the Polish & Lithuanians)

So I think that's the best POD to achieve a Teutonic victory: Olesnicki either dies earlier in the battle or is otherwise a little too slow to stop Von Kokeritz from charging home and striking King Wladyslaw down. The Polish half of the allied army, shaken by the demise of their king, routs before the Lithuanian half can return to the fight, allowing the Teutons to concentrate their full strength against the latter instead of being crushed between both. Vytautas is also killed, leaving the Polish-Lithuanian army quite thoroughly mauled & leaderless (much as the Teutonic army was IOTL) while Grand Master Ulrich stands alone as the uncontested master of the battlefield when the sun sets on July 15, 1410.

What's next for Poland, Lithuania. the Order and Eastern Europe as a whole?
 

Buba

A total creep
The story about von Kokeritz and Oleśnicki is probably Długosz ass-licking his patrons.
Neverthless a Deutschorden win with Jogailla and Vytautas dead is good for Poland and Lithuania.
This strangles the Polish-Lithuanian union - which placed a millstone on both countries' necks - in the crib.
In Lithuania a few murders of close relatives will ultimately bring a descendent of Algirdas or Gedyminas to the throne. There still quite a few of them around at this point. I don't know enough about Lithuania to make any predictions.

In Poland there could be a Civil War between Great Poland and Little Poland, each pushing a different candidate. The Mazowian Piasts are candidates, as is Emperor Sigismund - great-grandson of Casimir III, the eldest male descendant of his eldest daughter. But there are no young male Luxemburgers descended from Casimir III around, hence I'd expect the Siemowit candidacy to gain the most traction among the Great Polish lords, envious of the power of their Little Polish colleagues - those who had rammed Louis and Jogailla down their throats.
The lords from Little Poland could be pushing for a Lithuanian candidate again - they have estates in Ruthenia and wanted to stop the Lithuanians from raiding those lands for slaves, hence the Jogailla deal. Or Sigismund - for an absentee King with weak Regent - and/or appointed from among lords local.
Nevertheless, whoever is king in the fourteentwenties is almost certain to react differently to events in Czechia. Especially if not pushed forward by the Little Poland clique? Putting himself - or a son/relative - on the Czech throne?
An alternative king - again especially if not de-facto elected by Little Poland - might not get embroiled in the Hungarian shitshow.

The Deutschorden is in good shape, as it is not ruined financially as in OTL. It had to pay ransoms for the hundreds of volunteers from Germany and elsewhere who had been captured at Grunwald/Tannenberg. But the rot eating at it - i.e. being a celibate religious order and running a whole country - will continue.

Lots of butterflies :)
 
Last edited:

Circle of Willis

Well-known member
The story about von Kokeritz and Oleśnicki is probably Długosz ass-licking his patrons.
Neverthless a Deutschorden win with Jogailla and Vytautas dead is good for Poland and Lithuania.
This strangles the Polish-Lithuanian union - which placed a millstone on both countries' necks - in the crib.
In Lithuania a some murders of close relatives will ultimately bring a descendent of Algirdas or Gedyminas to the throne. There still quite a few of them around at this point. I don't know enough about Lithuania to make any predictions.

In Poland there could be a Civil War between Great Poland and Little Poland, each pushing a different candidate. The Mazowian Piasts are candidates, as is Emperor Sigismund - great-grandson of Casimir III, eldest male descendant of his eldest daughter. But there are no young male Luxemburgers descended from Casimir III around, hence I'd expect the Siemowit candidacy to gain the most traction among the Great Polish lords, envious of the power of their Little Polish colleagues - those who had rammed Louis and Jogailla on them.
The lords from Little Poland could be pushing for a Lithuanian candidate again - they had estates in Ruthenia and wanted to stop the Lithuanians from raiding those lands for slaves, hence the Jogailla deal. Or Sigismund - for an absentee King with weak Regent - and/or appointed from among lords local.
Nevertheless, whoever is king in the fourteentwenties is almost certain to react differently to events in Czechia. Especially if not pushed forward by the Little Poland clique?Putting himself or a son/relative on the Czech throne?
An alternative king - again especially if not de-facto elected by Little Poland - might not get embroiled in the Hungarian shitshow.

The Deutschorden is in good shape, as it is not ruined financially as in OTL. It had to pay ransoms for the hundreds of volunteers from Germany and elsewhere who had been captured at Grunwald/Tannenberg. But the rot eating at it - i.e. being a celibate religious order and running a whole country - will continue.

Lots of butterflies :)
Interesting thoughts across the board. Wladyslaw/Jogaila himself did have a kid at this point, but said kid was just a baby daughter. Poland did just have a child queen (Hedwig, Wladyslaw's predecessor & first wife and also this princess' namesake) so there's precedent to an extent - would any of the magnates have been willing to back Hedwig Jr.'s claim, in hopes of marrying her down the road and getting a crown for themselves that way? And might any of the Silesian Piasts also stand a chance at the Polish throne, or was the 15th century too late for them to reverse the decline of their fortunes since Henry the Pious got killed by the Mongols?

Sigismund getting the Polish throne should represent quite the boon for him, come the Hussite Wars. I think at least some of the Polish nobility aided the Hussites from time to time, but the kingdom as a whole never allied with them historically. Wondering how much more quickly the war would proceed if Sigismund could call in Polish reinforcements, or if they'd just refuse or fail to make a significant impact against Jan Zizka's leadership.

As for Lithuania, I'm starting to think it might fall under Russian influence after the probable disintegration of the Polish-Lithuanian alliance. From what I could find, Vytautas' only child (also a girl like Jogaila's, though an adult by 1410) was married to the Muscovite prince Vasily I, and the Muscovites were also hosting Svitrigaila, another cousin of Jogaila & Vytautas and perennial pretender to the Grand Duchy. Normally I'd imagine early 15th-century Lithuania would be too big and powerful for Moscow to swallow (especially with the Golden Horde still around and able to pose a threat to them - doubt the Khans would take too kindly to Moscow tripling in size all of a sudden if they could help it), but perhaps with the Grand Duchy severely weakened by disaster at Grunwald, Vasily might have an opening to install either his own son with Sophia or Svitrigaila on the ducal chair as an ally/pawn?

I agree, the Teutons' short-term position would have greatly benefited from the victory since their leadership, treasury and manpower pool all remain largely intact, but they had major long-term problems to worry about. Aside from the periodic Baltic uprisings like the Samogitian one which started this conflict in the first place, the burghers of their cities also increasingly took issue with their harsh rule, culminating in the Prussian Confederation uprising historically. Those tensions seem to have been greatly exacerbated by the defeat at Grunwald and ensuing need for high taxes to pay ransoms, so I doubt they'd come to boil anytime soon after a victory instead. Perhaps disputes between the Order's more zealous & traditional elements on one hand, and the Prussian gentry allied with said urban mercantile interests on the other, would come to a head as the Reformation approaches - after all, there were already anti-TO factions beginning to organize under the Ordenstaat's banner even before Grunwald shook out one way or the other, chiefly the Lizard Union whose leader caught the blame for their defeat later.
 

Buba

A total creep
I forgot about Jogailla's daughter. The hypothetical Civil War between Great and Little Poland could or would be over the regency and/or which band of magnates gets to chose her husband.

IMO the Silesian branch was too deep in Prague's orbit to be considered for the Throne. Also, they were too fragmented as to have any real power of their own. And were not so relevant - whereas Mazovia was a player in the Polish-Lithuanian-Deutschorden triangle, Silesia was an outsider. Of similar low and peripheral relevance as Moldavia or Pomerania. But who knows ... :)

There is no Russia yet - it was Rus/Ruthenia still, the two biggest Duchies being Muscovy and Lithuania :), with the future undecided. The Tatars were still a major factor. A case can be made that without the Polish millstone a Lithuanian Grand Duke, without any e.g. Hungarian or Czech issues to distract him, residing in Vilnius/Trokai and not Kraków, would had made a better job in keeping Muscovy down.
 
Last edited:

Circle of Willis

Well-known member
Who could a successfully-enthroned Hedwig II of Poland marry? I must admit I'm not well-versed in the early 15th-century Polish aristocracy's family trees. But, was there an unmarried Piast magnate who could regain the throne for their dynasty through her? Or failing that, is it realistic for her to marry a Habsburg somewhere down the road and bring Poland closer to the HRE that way? An Austro-Czecho-Hungaro-Polish empire sprawling across Central Europe does seem like it'd be an extremely unwieldy paper-juggernaut even if the nobility of each kingdom would tolerate such an arrangement, though.

It seems Moscow and Lithuania butted heads periodically throughout the late 14th century, which was partly why Vasily of Moscow married Vytautas' daughter (although that didn't stop the wars entirely), but these early battles were indecisive and when hostilities flared up again toward the end of the 15th century, Moscow started getting the better of the fighting. It does look like Lithuania would have to sort its succession out and regain its footing quickly if it's to contend for eastern supremacy with the Muscovites - otherwise, it's more likely that Moscow would make inroads against it earlier instead.

IIRC, Svitrigaila spent a while at the Muscovite court, intrigued extensively with the Ruthenian nobility in his bids for the Lithuanian ducal chair and was friendly to Orthodox interests (possibly out of necessity). If he were to gain and maintain control of Lithuania before Moscow's star could eclipse the Grand Duchy, what do you think are the chances that Lithuania would convert to Orthodoxy and/or focus its efforts entirely on eastern expansion against the Mongols and Russian principalities, perhaps even becoming Tsar of All the Russias (or the Lithuanian equivalent) in Moscow's place?
 

Buba

A total creep
I'd rule out a Hedewig II/Polish magnate marriage. Jogailla was criticised for not marrying a girl from a ruling House, so I'd expect the same thing to work in reverse. Also:
1 - the ruling clique would tear itself apart chosing which House marries the Queen.
2 - a foreign prince brings in alliances
So, I'd bet on a foreign prince - some king's or duke's son. Could be a Habsburg.

I'd not expect any Habsburg juggernaut to form - Hungary will elect somebody after Sigismund, Czechia will elect somebody after Wenceslaus (or later, after Sigismund) - pretty unlikely that they'd elect the same people.
Hedewig II's husband is 99% to be a foreign prince, somewhere from the neighbourhood - Mazovian Piast, Habsburg, Lithuanian, Pomeranian, Wettin ...
BTW - possible butterfly effect - will Sigismund bestow Brandenburg on the Hohenzollerns?

I have no idea if Lithuania could go Orthodox. Considering that Catholicism has 25 years of history in Lithuania I'd guess that maybe. Definitely not ASB :)
A pity Augenis - a knowledgeable Lithuanian bloke active (?) on AH - is not here. He'd know.
I imagine that the Duetschorden, with growing internal strife, stops pushing on Samogitia. That frees Lithuanian hands - they could indeed focus on the Russian principalaties to the east and the Golden Horde/Crimean Kaghante to the south.
Even if this Alt-Lithuania would wish for a peaceful SW border, which is not a given, this depends on internal Polish developments - the magnates from Little Poland had designs on Volhynia, something which kept the Lithuanians worried until mid century or so..
Could an Orthodox Lithuania unit Ruthenia - again maybe.

EDIT:
I gave "da man" a poke - he says that dropping Catholicism is unlikely because reasons.
 
Last edited:

ATP

Well-known member
medium size Poland with foreign monarch,and orthodox Lithuania fighting with Moscov for domination.It would be fun,if capitol of Mother Russia was Vilnus.
 

Buba

A total creep
Please, capitAl.
I know, the American Disease is contagious, but still ... :)

If, a big if, Lithuania wins the fight to unite All Russias I'd expect it to follow the example of all those states formed on the edges of China or Middle East or India - for the elite to fully embrace Russian culture and to move the capital from the periphery to somewhere closer to the centre. Smolensk or Vitebsk would IMO be prime candidates. Although I've been told that it is complicated.

Medium size Poland with foreign monarch - one might say that this is what happened in OTL, with import of Casimir IV or Alexander. And the size stayed practically the same up to 1569.
 

Buba

A total creep
expansion east would be even more of private venture than OTL.
That was an artefact of internal Muscovite turmoil.
Post 1400 Muscovy kicked Lithuanian ass on a regular basis - which then had to be rescued by Poland. Although there are opinions that the 1512 War went so badly for Lithuania because Alexandre "robbed" the treasury and went to Cracow to bribe the Polish Lords into electing him King.
So, no Polish distractions for Lithuania will be a Good Thing.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ATP

Users who are viewing this thread

Top