LordsFire
Internet Wizard
I don't know enough to comment on most of this but i think you're numbers are out of date.
"People's Liberation Army Navy - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
As of 2018, the Chinese navy operates over 496 combat ships and 232 various auxiliary vessels and counts 255,000 seamen in its ranks.''
Keep in mind this is three years out of date, the chinese are simply advancing so fast that i can understand not keeping up with the numbers. I won't disagree that the Chinese would lose in almost any confrontation with the US right now or even a few years from now.
However i think it will be much less than a decade before they feel confident in throwing down. Many people seem to have developed a nasty habit of dismissing the advancements China makes out of hand(not you btw) so i'm worried one day the west is going to get it's shit pushed in and be surprised.
The sheer scale of the things they do like their railroads,nuclear energy,factories,etc and the size of their population is only going to benefit them more as time goes on not less. There is very much a ticking clock until they are strong enough to sit down at the table and simply win.
If they can sustain their growth for long enough, yes, they will eventually become the dominant world power.
As usual, the question is whether or not other nations will be too asleep on the watch to address the threat in a timely manner, and if the totalitarian system will implode before it's too late.