Circling back to Skallagrim’s last post about Germany as Victorious Macedon and America as New Carthage:
Hmm...
An interesting premise, for sure. I don’t suppose you could get a Cold War scenario between the US and Germany here? Because funnily enough, I actually put forward a TL idea based on a similar premise (
described here), sans the macro-historical comparisons and with more mind to the fate of Asia. China still exists, after all, and with Russia presumably beaten back and decisively neutralized by the Germans, I imagine the Russians’ ability to conquer its neighbors would be greatly reduced, at the very least.
Anyway, even if they don’t come to blows, I still wonder how the two blocs would stack up against one another? On the one hand, Germany is an established military power with hegemony over continental Europe, having drawn in the Ottomans and strong-armed its neighbors into joining Mittëleuropa. (I suppose Austria-Hungary wouldn’t need much badgering there, though.) Further, they’d have substantial territorial gains in the east via knocking out Russia, the occupation effort for which will no doubt incentivize them to maintain their already-large army and retain conscription. However, I doubt the Germany Navy would amount to much, especially since a decisive victory in the Great War probably means Wilhelm played more to Germany’s strengths (overland ground forces) than its shortcomings (a rushed naval buildup), though even then, sailors and soldiers alike are more battle-hardened than their American counterparts. There’s also the fact that the German scientists who encouraged the development of breakthroughs like advanced rocketry—and, more importantly, the atomic bomb—wouldn’t be persecuted or discouraged via Deutschephysiks or other Nazi claptrap that cost them certain technological footholds IOTL, a more traditionally “vanilla” flavor of anti-Semitism directed towards Einstein and his Jewish colleagues notwithstanding. On the whole, quite a few advantages to start with, though I still think America’s odds of outlasting (or even overpowering!) Germany are much greater than Carthage’s odds of doing the same to Macedon (or Rome, for that matter).
For one, even as a mercantile power that mostly keeps to itself, the US is still an economic juggernaut and a Great Power in its own right, with tons of potential that’s yet to be realized. In fact, I’d actually say it’s more accurate to characterize America as the product of angry sex between Rome
and Carthage, so even though its Punic half is “dominant” here, I don’t think it’s too late for its Roman half to awaken later. Maybe it’s my Yankee bias showing, but considering how massively the US out-industry’d the Axis IOTL, I wouldn’t rule out a similarly expansive (peacetime) military buildup here that closes the gap with Germany rather quickly, if push ever comes to shove. In which case, perhaps they could consult British and French military advisors still peeved about losing, seeing as veterans who have experience fighting the Germans and losing would still have valuable input to offer. Another advantage US has (which further illustrates its parallels with Carthage) is how it’s better positioned to build a massive blue-water navy, thanks to all that coastline and being surrounded by two oceans, whereas Germany’s geography—combined with strategic pressures from the last war—forces it to largely neglect its navy in favor of its army (which America, as again evinced by OTL, is also capable of rivaling). Lastly, even if the Germans get the bomb first, it’s not like that alone will stop the US from catching up. If Stalinist Russia obtained the bomb just a few years after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, then I don’t see why the (much more economically efficient) US couldn’t do the same with Germany.
Ultimately, things could go in various directions based on how the details play out. But overall, I suspect America has a much better shot at outcompeting Germany—and consequently, many more chances to become the Empire of the West—than Carthage ever had of overshadowing Macedon (or Rome) as hegemon of the Classical World.