Peter Zeihan on The Realignment:
TL;DW:
-2019 was the best year in the 21st century b/c of all the demographic changes removing capital from the system
-3 countries in the world can fend off a functioning Ford class carrier
-Need hundreds to 1000 destroyers to patrol the oceans to protect global commerce, USN has 70
-No country can take up the role of global commerce protection due to the 10s of thousands of cargo ships floating around
-Chinese naval vessels mostly too small and short ranged to provide commerce protection
-Local regional powers will carve out their spheres of influence
-Chinese manufacturing will collapse, Xi is already killing it, and needs raw materials/exports
-Projects 80% reduction in standard of living, 50% reduction in population
-Greeks have started seizing Iranian cargo ships
-European companies can no longer insure Russian oil shipments, which are 95% of the current market
-Sovereign indemnification could break the Russians
-Russia's terrain makes it easy for mobile invaders to beat on static Russian defenders
-Russia has no chance of preventing a future invasion due to demographic free fall, so they invaded Ukraine to get defensive depth and position forces at gateways to Russian territory
-Russia won't stop when it gets all of Ukraine, which is why NATO is helping Ukraine - 5 NATO members in danger
-Asia had highest population density pre-industrialization, industrialization/globalization led to mega-cities dependent on globalized supply chains
-Asia has the fastest demographic collapse in the world
-China, S. Korea, Japan dependent on export economy to survive
-S. Korea, Japan, and Taiwan have too many people on the cusp of retirement to sustain production
-Chinese wage growth means its cheaper to make things in North America, gutting their manufacturing advantage once factories are set up
-US geography led to thinking everything will get better, so when it doesn't, we lose our shit
-America overreacts to problems
-Tarrifs against Chinese will never end, military disposition changing away from supporting Chinese trade, China might not survive this decade
-The Chinese use the Russians as an example to learn from, but all of China's assumptions have been proven false
-Sanctions against China would break them in a year
-Boycotts scare Xi
-Xi purging people has led to cult of personality that can't figure out ways to deal with these revelations
-Cornered powers lash out, declining powers that can't grab what they want militarily die
-China can't invade somewhere to solve their problems
-Taiwan no longer provides strategic benefits to China
-The Han ethnicity is doomed due to the demographic collapse
-Chinese pop decline will not be as fast as Black Death, but more wholistic
-Removing industrial infrastructure forces areas to revert to pre-industrial population patterns
-China's rapid industrialization wiped out the skill sets for large scale pre-industrial agriculture
-In a decade, North China might be pre-industrial, neo-Maoist tyranny; some city-states like Shanghai will partner with foreign countries/companies to survive, which is the norm for most of their history
-Labor cost has surpassed labor productivity in China by a factor of 6+x, automation can't help them because it has to be imported from other countries, can't train people fast enough, machinery and supporting it is expensive AF
-US is world's biggest energy and agricultural producer/exporter, baby boomers had kids
-US biggest challenge is rebuilding industrial infrastructure before China's implodes, shortages will hit and create major inflationary period for 5 years
-Supply chain will be largely in North America, once it's fully set up
-Inflation was kept low by dumping commodities from former USSR on global market
-Since 2015, president has power to summarily bar crude oil exports
-Any president who triggers it would drop gas prices in US, fuck over the entire rest of non-North America world
-Invest in fertilizer plants
-Apple has doubled down on China, when it collapses, iPhones will not be available
-Android phones are Korea dependent, so that market is vulnerable to shortages
-Steel shortages will be an issue, due to Russia + Ukraine being leading exporters of pig iron
-US is best steel recycler
-US doesn't smelt iron ore, we use pig iron to make high quality products
-Belarus, Ukraine, Russia = 40% of phosphate fertilzer production, takes a decade to get phosphate mines online
-Nitrogen fertilizer takes 3 years to get online, Europe isn't setting any up due to natural gas shortages
-China banned phosphate export as a national security issue
-Crops will probably switch to less fertilizer intensive ones like hay, or fertilizer use will be cut back (poor countries)
-Decentralized manufacturing aided by CNC and 3D printing tech will help mitigate the loss of convenience from globalization's collapse, 1/3 of consumer goods will be covered by this
-Almost out of US political reorganization
-A third party might exist for a bit before breaking down back into the two party system
-People moving around is going to be less prevalent
-Peter wants to grab people from Ukraine and Russia to bolster demographics and skills
-New powers won't rise this decade
-Japan's aging is pretty slow, they've successfully automated while capital was good, offshored manufacturing to countries with better demographics, cut deal with Trump for strategic relevance
-Nobody can replace/displace US on global stage
-Next five years will be wild ride, record growth + lots of inflation
-New rules will be made
And again, he proves ignorant of the albatross around America's neck; its establishment elite, who will do everything they can to defend and prop up China, while they tear America apart at the seams. Meaning whatever advantages he thinks we have, will be summarily destroyed and tossed into the gutter so long as they maintain control.
TL;DW:
-3 countries in the world can fend off a functioning Ford class carrier
-Need hundreds to 1000 destroyers to patrol the oceans to protect global commerce, USN has 70
-No country can take up the role of global commerce protection due to the 10s of thousands of cargo ships floating around
Given his whole thesis is "the globalist system is collapsing," the answer is "literally anyone who has any incentive to fuck with global trade in energy and other key resources via hitting the sea lanes."What exactly does he think global commerce is going to be protected against?
I was trying to keep pace with the discussion and not have to rewind too much, but IIRC, it was something about the pace of sortieing or some other metric of military output/performance that led him to say that.1) A Ford Class carrier is 50-70 aircraft, practically. Being a mobile aircraft carrier has strengths and weaknesses vs ground ones. There are about 20 countries with that many combat aircraft. That's what you need to at least heavily deter a Ford.
1) A Ford Class carrier is 50-70 aircraft, practically. Being a mobile aircraft carrier has strengths and weaknesses vs ground ones. There are about 20 countries with that many combat aircraft. That's what you need to at least heavily deter a Ford.
Your other points have some merit, but I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one.
It isn't just that the Ford can pack in 70 aircraft, it's also what kind of aircraft, how skilled the aircrews are, what ordinance they can carry, what data networks they're linked into, and what the enemy's version of the same is.
And bluntly put, most nations don't have aircraft/ordinance advanced enough, and pilots experienced enough, to avoid getting cut to pieces by Super Hornets, much less the F-35Cs that are starting to get into service.
Knowing Zeihan, he's probably 'rounding in favor,' so the number is probably more like 4 or 5 if you count nations that could inflict serious losses in the process of having their air force wiped out, but it's still going to be closer to 3 than 20.
Your other points have some merit, but I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one.
It isn't just that the Ford can pack in 70 aircraft, it's also what kind of aircraft, how skilled the aircrews are, what ordinance they can carry, what data networks they're linked into, and what the enemy's version of the same is.
And bluntly put, most nations don't have aircraft/ordinance advanced enough, and pilots experienced enough, to avoid getting cut to pieces by Super Hornets, much less the F-35Cs that are starting to get into service.
Knowing Zeihan, he's probably 'rounding in favor,' so the number is probably more like 4 or 5 if you count nations that could inflict serious losses in the process of having their air force wiped out, but it's still going to be closer to 3 than 20.
Lords of Fire one point you failed to cover is supply chain, logistics, and maintenance.
A constant battle for complicated machines, especially ones that fly. Our NATO allies had major issues in their little war in Libya. I think they mad it 30 hours before needing to ask nicely to the USA for assistance in the above areas.
Logistics wins wars but is not flashy or pretty. From my understanding of working with foreign military, Most countries are worse than Russia or the majority of NATO.
Lords of Fire one point you failed to cover is supply chain, logistics, and maintenance.
A constant battle for complicated machines, especially ones that fly. Our NATO allies had major issues in their little war in Libya. I think they mad it 30 hours before needing to ask nicely to the USA for assistance in the above areas.
Logistics wins wars but is not flashy or pretty. From my understanding of working with foreign military, Most countries are worse than Russia or the majority of NATO.
Peter Zeihan on The Realignment:
TL;DW:
-2019 was the best year in the 21st century b/c of all the demographic changes removing capital from the system
-3 countries in the world can fend off a functioning Ford class carrier
-Need hundreds to 1000 destroyers to patrol the oceans to protect global commerce, USN has 70
-No country can take up the role of global commerce protection due to the 10s of thousands of cargo ships floating around
-Chinese naval vessels mostly too small and short ranged to provide commerce protection
-Local regional powers will carve out their spheres of influence
-Chinese manufacturing will collapse, Xi is already killing it, and needs raw materials/exports
-Projects 80% reduction in standard of living, 50% reduction in population
-Greeks have started seizing Iranian cargo ships
-European companies can no longer insure Russian oil shipments, which are 95% of the current market
-Sovereign indemnification could break the Russians
-Russia's terrain makes it easy for mobile invaders to beat on static Russian defenders
-Russia has no chance of preventing a future invasion due to demographic free fall, so they invaded Ukraine to get defensive depth and position forces at gateways to Russian territory
-Russia won't stop when it gets all of Ukraine, which is why NATO is helping Ukraine - 5 NATO members in danger
-Asia had highest population density pre-industrialization, industrialization/globalization led to mega-cities dependent on globalized supply chains
-Asia has the fastest demographic collapse in the world
-China, S. Korea, Japan dependent on export economy to survive
-S. Korea, Japan, and Taiwan have too many people on the cusp of retirement to sustain production
-Chinese wage growth means its cheaper to make things in North America, gutting their manufacturing advantage once factories are set up
-US geography led to thinking everything will get better, so when it doesn't, we lose our shit
-America overreacts to problems
-Tarrifs against Chinese will never end, military disposition changing away from supporting Chinese trade, China might not survive this decade
-The Chinese use the Russians as an example to learn from, but all of China's assumptions have been proven false
-Sanctions against China would break them in a year
-Boycotts scare Xi
-Xi purging people has led to cult of personality that can't figure out ways to deal with these revelations
-Cornered powers lash out, declining powers that can't grab what they want militarily die
-China can't invade somewhere to solve their problems
-Taiwan no longer provides strategic benefits to China
-The Han ethnicity is doomed due to the demographic collapse
-Chinese pop decline will not be as fast as Black Death, but more wholistic
-Removing industrial infrastructure forces areas to revert to pre-industrial population patterns
-China's rapid industrialization wiped out the skill sets for large scale pre-industrial agriculture
-In a decade, North China might be pre-industrial, neo-Maoist tyranny; some city-states like Shanghai will partner with foreign countries/companies to survive, which is the norm for most of their history
-Labor cost has surpassed labor productivity in China by a factor of 6+x, automation can't help them because it has to be imported from other countries, can't train people fast enough, machinery and supporting it is expensive AF
-US is world's biggest energy and agricultural producer/exporter, baby boomers had kids
-US biggest challenge is rebuilding industrial infrastructure before China's implodes, shortages will hit and create major inflationary period for 5 years
-Supply chain will be largely in North America, once it's fully set up
-Inflation was kept low by dumping commodities from former USSR on global market
-Since 2015, president has power to summarily bar crude oil exports
-Any president who triggers it would drop gas prices in US, fuck over the entire rest of non-North America world
-Invest in fertilizer plants
-Apple has doubled down on China, when it collapses, iPhones will not be available
-Android phones are Korea dependent, so that market is vulnerable to shortages
-Steel shortages will be an issue, due to Russia + Ukraine being leading exporters of pig iron
-US is best steel recycler
-US doesn't smelt iron ore, we use pig iron to make high quality products
-Belarus, Ukraine, Russia = 40% of phosphate fertilzer production, takes a decade to get phosphate mines online
-Nitrogen fertilizer takes 3 years to get online, Europe isn't setting any up due to natural gas shortages
-China banned phosphate export as a national security issue
-Crops will probably switch to less fertilizer intensive ones like hay, or fertilizer use will be cut back (poor countries)
-Decentralized manufacturing aided by CNC and 3D printing tech will help mitigate the loss of convenience from globalization's collapse, 1/3 of consumer goods will be covered by this
-Almost out of US political reorganization
-A third party might exist for a bit before breaking down back into the two party system
-People moving around is going to be less prevalent
-Peter wants to grab people from Ukraine and Russia to bolster demographics and skills
-New powers won't rise this decade
-Japan's aging is pretty slow, they've successfully automated while capital was good, offshored manufacturing to countries with better demographics, cut deal with Trump for strategic relevance
-Nobody can replace/displace US on global stage
-Next five years will be wild ride, record growth + lots of inflation
-New rules will be made
-Need hundreds to 1000 destroyers to patrol the oceans to protect global commerce, USN has 70
-Chinese manufacturing will collapse, Xi is already killing it, and needs raw materials/exports
-Projects 80% reduction in standard of living, 50% reduction in population
-Supply chain will be largely in North America, once it's fully set up
-Chinese naval vessels mostly too small and short ranged to provide commerce protection
-Local regional powers will carve out their spheres of influence
-Japan's aging is pretty slow, they've successfully automated while capital was good, offshored manufacturing to countries with better demographics, cut deal with Trump for strategic relevance
-Asia had highest population density pre-industrialization, industrialization/globalization led to mega-cities dependent on globalized supply chains
-Decentralized manufacturing aided by CNC and 3D printing tech will help mitigate the loss of convenience from globalization's collapse, 1/3 of consumer goods will be covered by this
-Labor cost has surpassed labor productivity in China by a factor of 6+x, automation can't help them because it has to be imported from other countries, can't train people fast enough, machinery and supporting it is expensive AF
-China can't invade somewhere to solve their problems
-Taiwan no longer provides strategic benefits to China
-China, S. Korea, Japan dependent on export economy to survive
-Belarus, Ukraine, Russia = 40% of phosphate fertilzer production, takes a decade to get phosphate mines online
-Nitrogen fertilizer takes 3 years to get online, Europe isn't setting any up due to natural gas shortages
-China banned phosphate export as a national security issue
-Crops will probably switch to less fertilizer intensive ones like hay, or fertilizer use will be cut back (poor countries)
-The Chinese use the Russians as an example to learn from, but all of China's assumptions have been proven false
-Peter wants to grab people from Ukraine and Russia to bolster demographics and skills
-Russia's terrain makes it easy for mobile invaders to beat on static Russian defenders
-Russia has no chance of preventing a future invasion due to demographic free fall, so they invaded Ukraine to get defensive depth and position forces at gateways to Russian territory
-Russia won't stop when it gets all of Ukraine, which is why NATO is helping Ukraine - 5 NATO members in danger
-Projects 80% reduction in standard of living, 50% reduction in population
-Chinese manufacturing will collapse, Xi is already killing it, and needs raw materials/exports
-US is world's biggest energy and agricultural producer/exporter, baby boomers had kids
-Any president who triggers it would drop gas prices in US, fuck over the entire rest of non-North America world
-Next five years will be wild ride, record growth + lots of inflation
-Nobody can replace/displace US on global stage
Yeah his geopolitics has usually been good, but as you said his actual predictions on politics have been very bad. In effect it seems like he thinks even when the US leaves the rest of the world is going to continue obeying the system apart from minor things, whereas most of his "unsolvable" problems for russia and even China could be fixed if you are willing to take all the niceties of the world like a refusal to commit atrocity and throw it in the trashFirst, thank you for taking the time to transcribe all of that. Second, his arguments are insanely contradictory. Let's consider some:
The U.S. Navy didn't even have 600 ships of all types in the 1980s, so why suddenly is this an issue? Global shipping tonnage has went up, sure, but recall he says this:
All of which would, with an application of critical thinking, suggest global shipping tonnage would go down, thus easing his rather arbitrary number of destroyers needed to protect global shipping. We see this same contradictory thinking again:
Okay Peter, but you literally also said this:
So which way is it? You've further complicated yourself by saying this:
Peter, you've literally said China is screwed because the U.S. Navy is no longer protecting their commerce and they, for some reason, can't do it themselves: Japan literally uses the same SLOCs and has a smaller Navy. If we're assuming the U.S. Navy is doing commerce protection for Japan, by default it has to be doing the same for China given that geographic fact. If we're assuming Japan is somehow doing it itself, then why isn't China? You only need to review the PLAN as compared to the JMSDF to get a sense of why his statements are so arbitrary.
It doesn't stop there, however:
Okay, that's nice to know, Peter, but you also said this:
So which way is it? Yes, I know you were bringing up "training" for automation (We'll get to that in a second), but that doesn't really exist as a barrier in the Tech you're describing here. I can buy a 3D Printer right now for about $200, so why is this a structural check on Asia? Staying on this note:
Automation can't help them? If only there was a large maker of the necessary components they could utilize...
The cost aspect on this is particularly funny in light of the fact that China in actuality is the global leader in automation:
China has rapidly become a global leader in automation. From 2018 to 2020, a sales increase between 15 and 20 percent on average per year is possible for industrial robots. Annual sales volume has currently reached the highest level ever recorded for a single country: Within a year, sales in China surged by 27 percent to 87,000 units (2016).The operational stock of industrial robots marks the highest level in the world. At the same time, Chinese robot manufacturers expand the market share in their home country. “China is by far the biggest robot market in the world regarding annual sales and regarding the operational stock,” said Joe Gemma, President of the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). “It is the fastest growing market worldwide. There has never been such a dynamic rise in such a short period of time in any other market.”The main drivers of the latest growth in China are the electrical and electronics industry. Sales increased by 75 percent to almost 30,000 units (2016). About one third of the robots were produced by Chinese robot suppliers, who more than doubled sales by almost 120 percent. All international robot suppliers also increased sales considerably to the electrical and electronics industry (+59 percent). This remarkable demand will further grow in the future. Major contract manufacturers of electronic devices have already started to automate production. The semiconductor and the chip industries, for example, have strongly invested in automation. Large battery production facilities are being installed to meet the increasing demand for electric and hybrid cars.
It just keeps going on from here. Remember what he said about Japan earlier?
So which way is it Peter? How exactly is Japan doing good if it needs an export economy to survive? Hell, Peter, you've said this:
So why exactly does this mean for Japan as an island nation that imports most of its food, Peter? If the U.S. is still exporting to them, how exactly does that square with your comments about the U.S. Navy no longer being able to sustain such beyond a local level? Continuing on:
That's nice Peter, now explain it in context of this:
I mean, he just keeps going and it seems insanely schizo/contradictory on the whole and remarkably uninformed at best. Case in point is saying this:
So, Peter, what exactly happened in 1812 and in World War II? The Russians did lose World War I, of course, but that can be explained as the inverse of what you're saying; the lack of mobility in World War I was a general effect for everyone, given the prevailing technology. If he's talking about the Mongols, it's worth noting most of the Russian principalities were not taken and they later pushed the Mongols out in a long term victory.
It just keeps going:
Well first, Peter, who exactly has the balls to do Barbarossa 2.0 in light of that thing called MAD, given Russian has the largest nuclear stockpile? Indeed, who at all is going to be in position to do this, according to you? You've already wrote off China and you've literally said Europe is going to get screwed by the farming crunch while the U.S. is going isolationist. Who does that leave? Turkey? Refer back to nuclear weapons of the Russian Federation. Likewise, you've said this:
So who, exactly, is going to be in a position to invade Russia? Even pushing that to the wayside, how exactly is Russia too weak to defend itself from invasion but somehow strong enough to invade Ukraine for defensive depth and imperil five NATO countries?
Again, we also see double standards emerging at this point again too. He says this about the China:
And this about the United States:
Okay, so Russia is first or second in oil and natural gas by exports and is in the top five countries, along with Ukraine, for agriculture. China needs resources to keep its manufacturing going and an export market, according to Peter, so it seems we've established a match made in heaven here. Even better, given Peter's beliefs in the decline of oceanic shipping, China and Russia share an extensive land border. His weird economic thinking doesn't stop there:
Remember what he also said about an 80% reduction in standard of living and 50% reduction in population? How exactly does that square with the following:
Peter, how exactly are we going to see "record growth" when you literally contend the U.S. is going to screw over everyone outside North America?
Honestly, I think you get a sense of his forecast abilities from this last bit:
Peter Zeihan is basically just a Liberal World Order shill who is basically, in form, a Doomer Fukuyama. Everything is going to get shitty, but somehow his prefered candidates in the Western World are going to survive just fine despite him outlining exactly how that is impossible with his predictions. My personal start in geopolitics was from George Friedman, and Zeihan is basically just regurgitating exactly what Friedman was saying in the late 2000s, just updated to the modern day; it makes even more sense when you realize Zeihan used to be tied with Friedman back in their STRATFOR days.
What makes this bizarre, however, is that even STRATFOR/Friedman conceded in the mid-2010s a lot of these predictions just aren't tenable anymore:
In 2015, Stratfor published a decade forecast for 2015 to 2025, which revised the predictions on China and Russia made in the book. Rather than the Russian government completely collapsing, it envisioned that the Russian government would lose much of its power, and the country would gradually fragment into a series of semi-autonomous regions. In addition, while the book had postulated that Chinese fragmentation was more likely than the re-imposition of authoritarian rule, the analysis predicted that regional fragmentation was now a less-likely scenario for China, with the most probable result being the re-imposition of strict authoritarian rule.[2] It is unknown at present what implications this has for the book's further predictions, such as the Third World War and the US conflict with Mexico.