At this point, I suspect China's more likely to break out in monkey bites with India rather than Taiwan. Taiwan is a big deal in the news with a lot of people keeping their eyes on it, and any buildup China does to try to get enough shipping to invade is going to immediately draw the attention of Japan, Korea, the US, and probably a few others. India, however, has a land connection, a chunk of territory is disputed and claimed by both sides, and there have been shots fired multiple times over the past year or so and at least
20 deaths.
In my mind that has a big potential to suddenly explode into major violence and a full-on war if somebody gets the idea their pride is on the line and takes it too far. Especially with China now getting in bed with the Taliban, hence with Pakistan, which is India's archenemy for life.