The Soviet Union acquires Polesia after the end of the Polish-Soviet War

[WolfBear]

What if the Soviet Union would have acquired Polesia after the end of the Polish-Soviet War? :

Polesia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This territory didn't contain all that many Poles during this time, so just how much of a loss would this have actually been for Poland?

@sillygoose Thoughts on this?

 

[sillygoose]

The feeling that Poland isn't strong enough to check the Soviets might be the result of a worse performance by the Poles in the Polish-Soviet war and consequentially there is more pressure on Poland to cooperate with Germany. Perhaps Locarno ITTL forces Poland to revise the border instead of just leaving the door open to negotiations? Similarly since Poland would be considerably weakened and not viewed as capable of resisting the Soviets there might be different, less favorable borders drawn in 1920 as well as some revisions to the size of the Reichswehr just in case of further Soviet aggression, since the Soviets might be more confident thanks to seizing more territory and probably taking a harder line during the peace negotiations.

Honestly it is hard to say what the reaction could have been since it could have gone a few different ways, but my gut says a worse defeat in the Polish-Soviet war that removes Polesia from the new state and a more powerful/prestigious USSR on the eastern border would humble the Polish leadership and make them a bit more willing to compromise and deal rather than thinking they could beat bigger states in a war and assuming a more belligerent posture as a result. Probably the military leadership loses quite a bit of prestige and confidence as well that would otherwise have had IOTL and avoids the 1926 coup that put the military in charge.

The next question is what is the specific POD in the war and how do the Soviets react to their victory?

I'm thinking that the POD is the Soviets are more cautious in their advance during the Battle of Warsaw, so aren't defeated like that, but are still checked and both sides end up getting exhausted and cut a deal.

Perhaps Pilsudski's resignation letter is actually accepted ITTL, though just after the war?

Polish–Soviet War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Piłsudski, still harshly criticized, submitted a letter of resignation as commander-in-chief to Prime Minister Witos on 12 August. Witos refused to consider the resignation and kept the matter to himself.[185]

That would have all sorts of knock on effects. Also a peace of exhaustion that leaves a much smaller Poland would also effectively ensure a crippled Polish military and arguably a nation with far less confidence and more fear of another go around with the Soviets at a later date. I'd think Poland would ITTL be more susceptible to external pressure from the west regarding trade deals with Germany and negotiations at Locarno, which should remove some frictions that developed IOTL.

 

[WolfBear]

The feeling that Poland isn't strong enough to check the Soviets might be the result of a worse performance by the Poles in the Polish-Soviet war and consequentially there is more pressure on Poland to cooperate with Germany. Perhaps Locarno ITTL forces Poland to revise the border instead of just leaving the door open to negotiations? Similarly since Poland would be considerably weakened and not viewed as capable of resisting the Soviets there might be different, less favorable borders drawn in 1920 as well as some revisions to the size of the Reichswehr just in case of further Soviet aggression, since the Soviets might be more confident thanks to seizing more territory and probably taking a harder line during the peace negotiations.

Honestly it is hard to say what the reaction could have been since it could have gone a few different ways, but my gut says a worse defeat in the Polish-Soviet war that removes Polesia from the new state and a more powerful/prestigious USSR on the eastern border would humble the Polish leadership and make them a bit more willing to compromise and deal rather than thinking they could beat bigger states in a war and assuming a more belligerent posture as a result. Probably the military leadership loses quite a bit of prestige and confidence as well that would otherwise have had IOTL and avoids the 1926 coup that put the military in charge.

The next question is what is the specific POD in the war and how do the Soviets react to their victory?

I'm thinking that the POD is the Soviets are more cautious in their advance during the Battle of Warsaw, so aren't defeated like that, but are still checked and both sides end up getting exhausted and cut a deal.

Perhaps Pilsudski's resignation letter is actually accepted ITTL, though just after the war?

Polish–Soviet War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

That would have all sorts of knock on effects. Also a peace of exhaustion that leaves a much smaller Poland would also effectively ensure a crippled Polish military and arguably a nation with far less confidence and more fear of another go around with the Soviets at a later date. I'd think Poland would ITTL be more susceptible to external pressure from the west regarding trade deals with Germany and negotiations at Locarno, which should remove some frictions that developed IOTL.

FWIW, I don't think that Poland would actually be willing to make concessions over the Corridor even in this case, but maybe it could be more receptive to Hitler's overtures re: Danzig. Agreed that the 1926 Polish coup might not occur in this TL.

Poland's main weakness here will be its lack of strategic depth, though AFAIK Polesia didn't have very many railroads to begin with:

Polesia was primarily marshland, after all. So, I don't know just how many troops the Soviet Union would actually be able to station there unless it of course actually drained these marshlands.

 

[sillygoose]

FWIW, I don't think that Poland would actually be willing to make concessions over the Corridor even in this case, but maybe it could be more receptive to Hitler's overtures re: Danzig. Agreed that the 1926 Polish coup might not occur in this TL.

Agreed.

Poland's main weakness here will be its lack of strategic depth, though AFAIK Polesia didn't have very many railroads to begin with:

Polesia was primarily marshland, after all. So, I don't know just how many troops the Soviet Union would actually be able to station there unless it of course actually drained these marshlands.

In general yes, which is part of why it was so poor. It had a lot of people, but not a lot of economic activity other than Galicia and East Little Poland on the map (lots of agriculture and oil with some mining; the above map only shows industry and rail). The marshland was a fraction of the overall and remember the main part of the Pripyat was in Russia and they occupied it just fine. Also IOTL after taking the territory in 1939 the Soviets planned out a lot of road and rail enhancements for their occupied area, so even though it will take a while for them to actually do it, as it did IOTL, it will be worked on and by the 1930s should be well advanced, which would allow for large forces to be stationed there.

Don't forget what they had managed to cram in there IOTL by 1941 with little development of the Polesian rail system:

Poor Lithuania is now going to be on the frontlines with the USSR too.

 

[ATP]

What if the Soviet Union would have acquired Polesia after the end of the Polish-Soviet War? :

Polesia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This territory didn't contain all that many Poles during this time, so just how much of a loss would this have actually been for Poland?

@sillygoose Thoughts on this?

NOTHING CHANGES.Polesia have some poles and jews ,but mainly locals.Which mean people who asked to what nationality they belong answered locals.And speak local language who was mix of polish,belarusian and russian.

So,Polesia in soviet hands changed nothing,unless....soviets,thanks to attacking from better positions,take more polish territories in 1939.Result - germans ,,,still lost.So,nothing change.
Maybe,if soviets attacked germans from better positions in 1944,they would take more germany ,and entire Austria ? that would be change.Less idiots beliving in good communism,becouse they lived in it.

 

[WolfBear]

Poor Lithuania is now going to be on the frontlines with the USSR too.

No, it won't, actually, because Polish-controlled Vilnius will still be shielding it from the Soviet Union.

 

[sillygoose]

No, it won't, actually, because Polish-controlled Vilnius will still be shielding it from the Soviet Union.

Your map shows otherwise and the Poles only seized Vilnuis after the battle of Warsaw and due to winning it, something that won't happen ITTL.

In fact Lithuania might end up falling to the Soviets, who then could simply invade the rest of the Baltic states:

Lithuanian–Soviet War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

On 14 July 1920, the Soviets occupied Vilnius but did not transfer the city to the Lithuanian administration as agreed in the peace treaty. Instead, the Soviets planned a coup to overthrow the Lithuanian government and establish a Soviet republic.[91] However, the Soviets lost the Battle of Warsaw and were pushed back by the Poles. Some historians credit this victory for saving Lithuania's independence from the Soviet coup.[79][92] On August 26, the Red Army left Vilnius and Lithuanians prepared to defend their borders. As Poland did not recognize the treaty, this led to further hostilities. Eventually, Lithuania lost the Vilnius Region to Poland during the Żeligowski's Mutiny. When mediation by the League of Nations failed to change the situation, Lithuania and Poland were suspended in the state of "no war, no peace" until the Polish ultimatum of 1938.[93]

 

[ATP]

Your map shows otherwise and the Poles only seized Vilnuis after the battle of Warsaw and due to winning it, something that won't happen ITTL.

In fact Lithuania might end up falling to the Soviets, who then could simply invade the rest of the Baltic states:

Lithuanian–Soviet War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Indeed.If we were less succesfull,soviets would easily take over Baltic states,if nothing more in 1920.
Again,changes - soviet take more in 1939widraw less in 1941,and get more territory in 1945.Maybe even majority of Germany and part of Denmark ? good for people there,nobody would belive in commie shit there.They would be smarter when soviets fall.
Well,except those in massgraves.

 

[WolfBear]

Your map shows otherwise and the Poles only seized Vilnuis after the battle of Warsaw and due to winning it, something that won't happen ITTL.

In fact Lithuania might end up falling to the Soviets, who then could simply invade the rest of the Baltic states:

Lithuanian–Soviet War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

My initial map here actually envisioned Poland keeping all of its real life territories that were 30+% Polish. That would obviously include both Lviv and Vilnius. Poland would lose Polesia itself, but would still control the territories to the north and south of Polesia.

 

[sillygoose]

My initial map here actually envisioned Poland keeping all of its real life territories that were 30+% Polish. That would obviously include both Lviv and Vilnius. Poland would lose Polesia itself, but would still control the territories to the north and south of Polesia.

How would they do so given that acquiring Polesia would be politically impossible? It was only available to be taken in war, since that is the only way Poland could have taken it. No way in the peace treaty either side would have parted with anything they still held militarily.

 

[WolfBear]

How would they do so given that acquiring Polesia would be politically impossible? It was only available to be taken in war, since that is the only way Poland could have taken it. No way in the peace treaty either side would have parted with anything they still held militarily.

Could you have had a better Soviet military position in Polesia but the same military position elsewhere?

 

[sillygoose]

Indeed.If we were less succesfull,soviets would easily take over Baltic states,if nothing more in 1920.
Again,changes - soviet take more in 1939widraw less in 1941,and get more territory in 1945.Maybe even majority of Germany and part of Denmark ? good for people there,nobody would belive in commie shit there.They would be smarter when soviets fall.
Well,except those in massgraves.

History would have been very different by 1939 if the Soviets took East Poland/Polesia and the Baltics in 1920. I know you think Poland would have been very similar in action as to OTL, but honestly I doubt the leadership of the country could have with Lenin/Trotsky breathing down their neck in their core territory by 1921.

 

[WolfBear]

History would have been very different by 1939 if the Soviets took East Poland/Polesia and the Baltics in 1920. I know you think Poland would have been very similar in action as to OTL, but honestly I doubt the leadership of the country could have with Lenin/Trotsky breathing down their neck in their core territory by 1921.

Would the Poles have kept eastern Galicia in this TL?

 

[sillygoose]

Would the Poles have kept eastern Galicia in this TL?

If the Soviets didn't get greedy in August 1920? Doubtful in the extreme. They got wrecked because Deep Battle ideas didn't work given their forces and posture.

 

[raharris1973]

@WolfBear and @sillygoose - you seem to be using different definitions of Polesia, Wolf using the mega-pripet marshes region in the map, and Silly using interwar eastern Poland that was lost after 1945.

 

[WolfBear]

@WolfBear and @sillygoose - you seem to be using different definitions of Polesia, Wolf using the mega-pripet marshes region in the map, and Silly using interwar eastern Poland that was lost after 1945.

I'm only using the white parts of the Kresy (eastern Poland) on this map for Polesia since those parts had much less Poles than the rest of the Kresy had:

 

[sillygoose]

I'm only using the white parts of the Kresy (eastern Poland) on this map for Polesia since those parts had much less Poles than the rest of the Kresy had:

Your link is broken.

@WolfBear and @sillygoose - you seem to be using different definitions of Polesia, Wolf using the mega-pripet marshes region in the map, and Silly using interwar eastern Poland that was lost after 1945.

Ah yeah seems to be. Still most of what I've said still applies even with the different boarders. No way that in negotiations the Soviets would get the white areas in the earlier map AFTER the Polish-Soviet war. Only way is through conquest and doing better in the Polish-Soviet war. That also then makes the Soviets the main enemy since they could easily cut off either wing of Poland on each flank of the bulge. Plus it would be much easier to incite minorities in those areas against Warsaw as well as contact Polish communists in the core areas of Poland.

 

[ATP]

Would the Poles have kept eastern Galicia in this TL?

Yes,Ukrainians were new nation and except elites and part of peasants from ex-AH,almost nobody consideret himself urainians.
So,no ukrainian state there.

History would have been very different by 1939 if the Soviets took East Poland/Polesia and the Baltics in 1920. I know you think Poland would have been very similar in action as to OTL, but honestly I doubt the leadership of the country could have with Lenin/Trotsky breathing down their neck in their core territory by 1921.

Not quiet.We would have soviet leaders killing themselves for power,just like OTL - and in Poland Piłudzki still would made his putch.The same result in 1939 - Piłsudzki cronies ruling Poland,and Sralin making Aliance with Hitler.

 

[WolfBear]

Yes,Ukrainians were new nation and except elites and part of peasants from ex-AH,almost nobody consideret himself urainians.
So,no ukrainian state there.

It matters more what the Bolsheviks think than about what Ukrainians themselves think!

 

[ATP]

It matters more what the Bolsheviks think than about what Ukrainians themselves think!

Then it would be ukrainian state/Lenin almost did so/ later genocided by Sralin,just like in OTL.They would be kind- of - Mongolia - independent formally,practically - colony.