raharris1973
Well-known member
Japanese, British, and American naval expenditures go way higher than they were when the Washington Naval Treaty put a stop to the arms race and there is no disarmament treaty because none of them can trust that the others will - at least nominally - honor it.
Where are they are going to get all the money to pay for this? From what you say, it sounds like they spend it out of anger, but anger doesn't pay the bills.
From the British perspective: the US asked us to fuck over an ally who was willing to do most* of what was asked.
Well the U.S. is meddling, which is a little obnoxious in principle, but how harsh is the demand really. "Hey Britain, expand your Empire in this place, or I'll buy it."
From the Japanese perspective: if we can't trust our best Ally, we can't trust anyone.
Did you miss the part in the OP that the PM and Foreign Minister in Tokyo didn't even have a settled policy of taking the islands, their occupation was a freelance initiative by the Navy. Japanese Admirals may lament a lost opportunity, but the Tokyo government may not even count it as a betrayal by Britain (there was no prior agreement on what to do or not do with the islands) or trace it back to being the Americans fault.
From the American perspective: we made a mess of this and it's going to be bloody because we might have to fight both of them at the same time.
This is extremely unlikely. The British aren't fighting Americans. Full stop. Why would they? The Anglo-Japanese alliance? That alliance does not obligate Britain to fight the US under any circumstances.
Somewhat more of a chance of drifting into a conflict with Japan if the British Empire ignores US requests/demands, the Japanese Navy drifts on in, it becomes de facto Japanese occupied, the US intervenes and tries to move to plan B of purchasing the islands from Germany, and Japan publicly commits itself to staying. Even here Japan may back down.
Basically I'm more in agreement with Cuba here:
If USA leans on Britain which leans on Japan - possibly in parallel to growling at Japan - to leave the bits of sand and coral alone and as a result the ex-German islands end up as an Aussie mandate, this need not piss off Japan.
The Empire grabbing those islands was a nice to have not a must have issue.
Post WWI Japan will be pissed at the UK and USA over several matters, but the never-to-be-"Mandates" probably will not make the Top 10 of Reasons to Hate Foreign Devils.
A US purchase of the German colonies would create an issue as not sure what would happen in terms of possessions already occupied by allied powers. Suspect that the allies would insist on holding the territories they have occupied, at least until the German forces have been removed, including their fleet, or not until the war is over.
The US I could imagine living with a situation where it doesn't take possession of territories actually occupied by the Allies until the German forces have been removed, which, if the Japanese had moved ahead anyway, would just be a matter of weeks, because it would only take that long to arrest all the Germans on the islands, and Von Spee already sent the Pacific squadron sailing to South American waters, far away from the mandates before the Japanese really arrived.
Of course in that scenario, the US coming in to take over islands from Japanese conquerors would lead to US-Japanese, even a degree of US-Entente bad feeling, worse than if Japan never occupied the place. It wouldn't be much US resentment of anybody else, it would be Japanese resentment at the US grabbing the apples the Japanese Navy picked, and British resentment that Americans paid the Germans good money during wartime.
The simplest scenario for addressing US concerns is just having British Empire forces grab the place. I assume the Australians are the closest (the Canadians don't have any assets from British Columbia that can range that far, do they?), maybe the New Zealanders?
These islands are small, so their garrisons shouldn't take up much, but I wonder if the Australians being involved in more extensive Pacific operations means that Australians are slower to gather for the Middle East, Egypt, and Gallipolli fronts? Maybe Indian troops do Gallipolli instead?
Interesting point about Japan possibly trying harder to keep its gains in the Russian Far East as to save face and have anything to show for its participation in the Great War Between Foreign Devils.
You know, I never actually said Russian Far East. I might have thought it, but I never wrote it. I was referring only to Shandong.