Russian-Ukrainian-Polish Eternal Friendship Thread

Agent23 said:

Except that the value of the Ruble went down because of sanctions and the Russian Central bank decided to let it float freely instead of pegging it to the dollar.
Oh, and those sanctions are a thing, too.

Contrast that with Ukraine, which has ballooning foreign debt.

There is also one big thing you are forgetting, Russia can produce most of the stuff it needs, from cars to fertilizer, food and energy internally.
They also have the tarade deals with China, where they and the Chinese agreed to trade in their own currencies.
Ukraine can not.
Foreign debt of Russia, 10 years:

EMBED

d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net

Foreign debt of Ukraine, 10 years(Remind me, didn't a bunch of countries decide to write off a large chunk of Ukrainian foreign debt after the Meidan insurrection?):

https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/ukraine-external-debt.png?s=ukraineextdeb&v=202112181004V20200908&d1=20120216

Ukraine's one is the one that has been going up, Russia has slashed its foreign debt.

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The debt argument is not worth much, see: Ceausescu's Romania.
Neither is the autarky one, see: North Korea. Especially when in case of Russia the "is producing" part in some areas does not mean "is using what it is producing".
Russian brands are only about 30% of the market.
Above all, Russia is still importing electronics from Asia like everyone else and they won't get a massive discount because sanctions hit its currency, especially not with current global shortages.

Agent23 said:

Lol, suddenly you are so very enthusiastic about the EU.
That eager to get more snouts into the ever-expanding >60% government and supra-government euro-trough?
That eager to get more grifters that will vote on Brussels' beck and call and tell you that you Poles are muhsoggykneeists and racists and istaphobes for wanting control over your own judiciary?

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Its Ukraine we are talking about, not Sweden. If anything that's one more mid sized country to be voting against progressive crap in EU. If they won't, who will?

Marduk said:

The debt argument is not worth much, see: Ceausescu's Romania.
Neither is the autarky one, see: North Korea. Especially when in case of Russia the "is producing" part in some areas does not mean "is using what it is producing".

Russia - Flash report, Sales volume, 2019 - MarkLines Automotive Industry Portal

Russian car sales increase 2.3% in December, down 2.3% for 2019. The 179,235 new cars and light commercial vehicles sold in Russia in December represented an increase 2.3% compared to the same month

www.marklines.com

Russian brands are only about 30% of the market.
Above all, Russia is still importing electronics from Asia like everyone else and they won't get a massive discount because sanctions hit its currency, especially not with current global shortages.


Its Ukraine we are talking about, not Sweden. If anything that's one more mid sized country to be voting against progressive crap in EU. If they won't, who will?

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Ahem: Automotive industry in Russia - Wikipedia

Yeah, there are a lot of foreign car companies that want a piece of the Russian market, and consequently have to make their cars in Russia.

Autarky doesn't work for small countries, but the largest country on earth can easily reduce foreign dependence thanks to lots of land and natural resources.

They do not need to import energy and a lot of raw materials, for one.

Also, the oligarchy and the political class in Ukraine will vote however the people holding the purse strings in Brussels want them to vote, so I doubt you will see much aid from them.

Agent23 said:

Ahem: Automotive industry in Russia - Wikipedia

Yeah, there are a lot of foreign car companies that want a piece of the Russian market, and consequently have to make their cars in Russia.

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You mean assemble them from imported parts, just like they do in the EU countries?

Agent23 said:

Autarky doesn't work for small countries, but the largest country on earth can easily reduce foreign dependence thanks to lots of land and natural resources.

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>Largest
Reminder that people do jobs, not square kilometers of taiga. Even USA, with over twice the population, all its technology, wealth and also massive territory and lots of resources, would take a major economic hit if it tried autarky.

Agent23 said:

Also, the oligarchy and the political class in Ukraine will vote however the people holding the purse strings in Brussels want them to vote, so I doubt you will see much aid from them.

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If so, why don't they even have gay marriage yet, despite obviously wanting EU approval in order to be allowed in?

You all should keep in mind that a high GDP doesn't necessarily mean that the average person will experience much of it. More likely, the elites and corpos will pocket the extra money.

Urabrask Revealed said:

You all should keep in mind that a high GDP doesn't necessarily mean that the average person will experience much of it. More likely, the elites and corpos will pocket the extra money.

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Yeah, but there are few other objective statistical measures on which we can do this type of dick waving.

Marduk said:

You mean assemble them from imported parts, just like they do in the EU countries?

>Largest
Reminder that people do jobs, not square kilometers of taiga. Even USA, with over twice the population, all its technology, wealth and also massive territory and lots of resources, would take a major economic hit if it tried autarky.


If so, why don't they even have gay marriage yet, despite obviously wanting EU approval in order to be allowed in?

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2019
Product
Exports | Imports:
$407B | $238B,
13 of 225 | 21 of 225

Russia exports almost 2x what it imports, as I said, they can be pretty much self-sufficient where weapons systems, food and energy are concerned, and any sanctions will probably boost their existing industries like they did with their agriculture.
before 2014 they were a net food importer, now they are a net food exporter.
Obviously you keep forgetting that they and China are fine trading with their own currencies, and China is the biggest producer of electronic gadgets.

As to population, well there is about 150 million Russians, and you also have Belarus and the countries of the CSTO and their Customs Union, you know, all those stans that are Russian allies and have actually growing populations, that gives Russia a workforce of about 200 million, methinks.
I am also certain that they can get more labor from China and even North Korea

As to America, well it has a massive services sector and has outsourced a lot of its production.

Now, I am not advocating a totally closed economy here, even though you are trying to try and make it look like I am, however
between their own internal capacity, their various close allies' capacities, and China, Russia can meet a lot of its needs without having to deal with the West and the USA.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is on western life support.

And why truly Russia?

Agent23 said:

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus/

2019
Product
Exports | Imports:
$407B | $238B,
13 of 225 | 21 of 225

Russia exports almost 2x what it imports, as I said, they can be pretty much self-sufficient where weapons systems, food and energy are concerned, and any sanctions will probably boost their existing industries like they did with their agriculture.
before 2014 they were a net food importer, now they are a net food exporter.

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Look what the exports are. Its massively dominated by energy resources, followed by 8bn of wheat.
Compare to what the imports are.

The top imports of Russia are Cars ($11B), Packaged Medicaments ($10.2B), Vehicle Parts ($8.21B), Broadcasting Equipment ($6.75B), and Planes, Helicopters, and/or Spacecraft ($4.81B)

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Exporting raw materials, importing advanced technological goods that are, among other things, needed to maintain the tools and infrastructure for making the raw materials.

Obviously you keep forgetting that they and China are fine trading with their own currencies, and China is the biggest producer of electronic gadgets.

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Yes. And? That doesn't mean China will sell those to them cheaply, without taking advantage of ruble being weak. Why not sell them to the west for USD instead, exchange the USD into a large amount of very weak rubles, and use them to buy lots of stuff from Russia? Russia would have to offer ruble price proportional to the bad ruble/USD exchange rate to beat that scheme.
Sure, China will not join sanctions, but its China we are talking about, if it can squeeze lots of wealth from Russia with overly favorable deals thanks to sanctions, it will take the opportunity.

As to population, well there is about 150 million Russians, and you also have Belarus and the countries of the CSTO and their Customs Union, you know, all those stans that are Russian allies and have actually growing populations, that gives Russia a workforce of about 200 million, methinks.
I am also certain that they can get more labor from China and even North Korea

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Even Brazil and Nigeria still have more.

Agent23 said:

Now, I am not advocating a totally closed economy here, even though you are trying to try and make it look like I am, however
between their own internal capacity, their various close allies' capacities, and China, Russia can meet a lot of its needs without having to deal with the West and the USA.

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Look where the imports come from, your link:

importing mostly from China ($26.5B), United Arab Emirates ($17.9B), United States ($13.4B), Germany ($7.08B), and Japan ($6.55B).

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4 out of top 5 are west or west friendly countries.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is on western life support.

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They wish to be.

Marduk said:

Look what the exports are. Its massively dominated by energy resources, followed by 8bn of wheat.
Compare to what the imports are.

Exporting raw materials, importing advanced technological goods that are, among other things, needed to maintain the tools and infrastructure for making the raw materials.

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Russia's civilian aircraft industry got heavily hit, but it is recovering.

Marduk said:

Yes. And? That doesn't mean China will sell those to them cheaply, without taking advantage of ruble being weak. Why not sell them to the west for USD instead, exchange the USD into a large amount of very weak rubles, and use them to buy lots of stuff from Russia? Russia would have to offer ruble price proportional to the bad ruble/USD exchange rate to beat that scheme.

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China has its own problems with the West, I doubt they will want to try and fuck a major partner like Russia.

Marduk said:

Look where the imports come from, your link:

4 out of top 5 are west or west friendly countries.

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Yeah, and I doubt Japan, Korea and Germany will give that much of a fuck about the Ukraine situation.
They want to make money.
China is determined to go up the value chain and produce more high end goods and technologies, they can be a source of import substitution, too.

I doubt that loss of trade with the USA will be that much of a problem, honestly, and you have no concrete proof to back your hypotheticals, again.

Marduk said:

They wish to be.

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Remind me how many times did they get emergency rescue loans?
That is life support.

Agent23 said:

China has its own problems with the West, I doubt they will want to try and fuck a major partner like Russia.

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If fucking trading partners was a sexuality, it would be China's. Its best if they have no other options. And Russia is one of the regulars already.

Agent23 said:

Yeah, and I doubt Japan, Korea and Germany will give that much of a fuck about the Ukraine situation.
They want to make money.

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We'll see. If the invasion happens USA will get at least some of them to join sanctions.

Agent23 said:

China is determined to go up the value chain and produce more high end goods and technologies, they can be a source of import substitution, too.

I doubt that loss of trade with the USA will be that much of a problem, honestly, and you have no concrete proof to back your hypotheticals, again.

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Its third largest importer for Russia by your own source.

Agent23 said:

Remind me how many times did they get emergency rescue loans?
That is life support.

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IMF loans are from IMF, not EU.

Marduk said:

If fucking trading partners was a sexuality, it would be China's. Its best if they have no other options. And Russia is one of the regulars already.

Russia up in arms over Chinese theft of military technology

Beijing's rise as a major armaments exporter is a double-edged sword for Moscow

asia.nikkei.com

We'll see. If the invasion happens USA will get at least some of them to join sanctions.

https://news.yahoo.com/japan-parliament-resolution-ukraine-condemns-042637351.html

Its third largest importer for Russia by your own source.


IMF loans are from IMF, not EU.

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Assistance Programs

U.S. assistance to Ukraine since 2014 totals over $3.7 billion, plus three $1 billion sovereign loan guarantees. For FY 2020, Congress has appropriated $698 million: $448 million for State/USAI programs and $250 million for USAI, including $50 million for lethal assistance. The $448 million appropriation for State/USAI programs includes approximately $285 million in the development accounts and approximately $163 million in the security accounts.

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Facts & figures
Over 5 million people affected by the ongoing conflict
3.4 million people in need of humanitarian aid (OCHA)
More than 7,000 civilians injured and over 3,000 killed (OHCHR)
EU assistance for 2014-2021:

• EU emergency and early recovery assistance:
  €1 billion
• EU Member States humanitarian aid:
  €268.9 million
• European Commission humanitarian aid:
  €190.2 million

Russia-Ukraine crisis: EU Ambassadors okay extra $1.36 bn of macro-financial aid to Kyiv

Ukraine, EU sign documents required for paying 1 bln euro to Kyiv

10% for the big guy...

Agent23 said:

Assistance Programs

Ukraine

The war in Ukraine has spiralled into a fully-fledged humanitarian catastrophe. Heavy fighting and attacks continue to endanger the lives of civilians and cause severe damage to housing, water and electricity supply, heating, and public infrastructure such as schools and health facilities.

ec.europa.eu

Facts & figures
Over 5 million people affected by the ongoing conflict
3.4 million people in need of humanitarian aid (OCHA)
More than 7,000 civilians injured and over 3,000 killed (OHCHR)
EU assistance for 2014-2021:

• EU emergency and early recovery assistance:
  €1 billion
• EU Member States humanitarian aid:
  €268.9 million
• European Commission humanitarian aid:
  €190.2 million

Russia-Ukraine crisis: EU Ambassadors okay extra $1.36 bn of macro-financial aid to Kyiv

Ukraine, EU sign documents required for paying 1 bln euro to Kyiv

10% for the big guy...

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So 7 billion from USA spread over 6 years, almost half of it loan guarantees rather than proper aid. Occasionally a billion from EU, not every year.
If we stretch it, we're getting into territory of 1.5-2bn USD, 1% of Ukraine's GDP.
Not exactly the massive bankrolling you are making it look like.
Still that aid pales in comparison to IMF loans, like this:
17.5bn USD spread over 4 years, that's 2-3 times as much as EU and US aid combined.
By the standards of US foreign aid lavishness, that's nothing impressive, not even top 10 receiver.

Compare that to Russia's spending on the separatist republics, which are about a tenth the size of Ukraine.

And that's straight out aid, not loans or loan guarantees.

Marduk said:

So 7 billion from USA spread over 6 years, almost half of it loan guarantees rather than proper aid. Occasionally a billion from EU, not every year.
If we stretch it, we're getting into territory of 1.5-2bn USD, 1% of Ukraine's GDP.
Not exactly the massive bankrolling you are making it look like.
Still that aid pales in comparison to IMF loans, like this:

IMF signs off $17.5bn loan for Ukraine in second attempt to stave off bankruptcy

Four-year bailout programme is expected to unlock further credit from donors and includes immediate $5bn payment to help stabilise conflict-hit economy

www.theguardian.com

17.5bn USD spread over 4 years, that's 2-3 times as much as EU and US aid combined.
By the standards of US foreign aid lavishness, that's nothing impressive, not even top 10 receiver.

US Foreign Aid by Country 2024

worldpopulationreview.com

Compare that to Russia's spending on the separatist republics, which are about a tenth the size of Ukraine.

Russia annually spends $5 billion on Ukraine’s temporarily occupied territories, - official

About 1.3 billion dollars are spent on civil affairs and 3.7 billion - on military affairs

112.international

And that's straight out aid, not loans or loan guarantees.

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You do realize that, between low interest rates and inflation the Ukrainians might be paying negative interest, right?
And, I live in the EU and work for European and American companies, I don't live in Russia and I don't pay taxes there.
If the people who do get taxed to pay for that support what Putin is doing, though, with the rationale that the Breakaway Republics are seen by them as kin endangered by neonazis perhaps, then that is their business.

Money the EU misspends on Ukraine is better used for stuff that benefits me, a citizen of the EU, not on hair brained windmill tilting that spoils our relationship wit a major trading partner, and on insane projects linked to Polish, baltic and Swedish inferiority complexes steming from the fact that they tried to take parts of Russia long ago and ultimately Russia ended up kicking their asses, and fear of Big Bad Putin, since the baltics love to disenfranchise their Russian minorities the fears might be well-founded.
Actually, I'd like all the slushfunds the EU has cut massively, and its authority where some policies are concerned - removed, but allegedly freedom-loving Euroskeptic Poles are more interested in stupid dick measuring with Putin by proxy.
Fuck no!

Here is a counter idea, you Poles put your money where your mouths are and compensate the rest of us by reimbursing the rest of the EU for all the money spent on Ukraine and lost from trade with Russia, every lost sale, every cancelled vacation, everything!

You can also forfeit any and all Structural funds you might receive and instead ask the EU that the money be used for various anti-Russian initiatives.

Hmmm . . . It seems negotiations have finally concluded.

Biden family and other Commiecrat interests in Ukraine will not be harmed by the Russian invasion.

Ukraine is gonna be history soon.

Agent23 said:

You do realize that, between low interest rates and inflation the Ukrainians might be paying negative interest, right?
And, I live in the EU and work for European and American companies, I don't live in Russia and I don't pay taxes there.
If the people who do get taxed to pay for that support what Putin is doing, though, with the rationale that the Breakaway Republics are seen by them as kin endangered by neonazis perhaps, then that is their business.

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Perhaps those who spend money on Ukraine also think it benefits them to do so?

Agent23 said:

Money the EU misspends on Ukraine is better used for stuff that benefits me, a citizen of the EU, not on hair brained windmill tilting that spoils our relationship wit a major trading partner, and on insane projects linked to Polish, baltic and Swedish inferiority complexes steming from the fact that they tried to take parts of Russia long ago and ultimately Russia ended up kicking their asses, and fear of Big Bad Putin, since the baltics love to disenfranchise their Russian minorities the fears might be well-founded.
Actually, I'd like all the slushfunds the EU has cut massively, and its authority where some policies are concerned - removed, but allegedly freedom-loving Euroskeptic Poles are more interested in stupid dick measuring with Putin by proxy.
Fuck no!

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Out of all things, Ukraine is a mere afterthought as far as EU slush funds go. They throw far more money at places on whole different continents for less reason than Ukraine, and that's without even touching on green scams. Nice of you to not give a damn about Russia's power games in the area, but understandable, you are outside of any realistic reach of it after all, unlike others, so not your problem.
It should be enough to know that all those poor oppressed Russian minorities around Europe are somehow not eager to move to their supposedly rich and certainly glorious motherland, which does agree that it could take a little demographic boost.
Such mysteries are the problem of Poland, Baltics and Sweden, among others.

Agent23 said:

Here is a counter idea, you Poles put your money where your mouths are and compensate the rest of us by reimbursing the rest of the EU for all the money spent on Ukraine and lost from trade with Russia, every lost sale, every cancelled vacation, everything!

You can also forfeit any and all Structural funds you might receive and instead ask the EU that the money be used for various anti-Russian initiatives.

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In that case we would also have to get all the future spoils that may result from such activities, which not even Germans could accept.
You know damn well that's not how EU works, EU is all about red taping and bamboozling a mass of politicians from many countries to waste money on something that benefits yours. That's its intended purpose after all, don't hate the player (and not even a big one), hate the game. While it lasts that is. No one can guess how long it will.

Seems like I told yall Russia was going to Invade

And for the last three months you have been consistently wrong.

Marduk said:

You know damn well that's not how EU works, EU is all about red taping and bamboozling a mass of politicians from many countries to waste money on something that benefits yours. That's its intended purpose after all, don't hate the player (and not even a big one), hate the game. While it lasts that is. No one can guess how long it will.

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You can help reform it instead of demand more money be misspent.
Also I haven't seen you decline EU money on principal grounds.

What spoils are you fantasizing about?
Is perhaps China paying you to drive Russia into their hands?
You think that Russia will bend over and somebody willing to lick Poland's boots will get elected at some point?


I doubt that.

Zachowon said:

He basically wants Eastern Europento be undefeated by the US.
From what I cam find, I have heard variations.
From saying NATO to pull all troops back to ore 97 line to NATO itself going back to that

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Primary objective sources or nothing, buster.

Now, back on topic.

Frankly, Ukraine with some of its manufacturing industries and large, fertile soil fields could have been a better acquisition for the EU if we had gotten that in tact.

They were supposed to also have shale oil, but that turned out to be a lie.

Partitioning the place and getting all the wheat growing areas might also be a boon for us and that way both sides will be happy, IMHO.

Just let the East and the West have a peaceful divorce, then the EU can take the agricultural West.Frankly we also need agricultural workers all over as well and a lot of subsidies are agricultural in nature.
Of course that will actually require tougher anti-corruption and anti-misuse measures.

The new country joins some EU-wide framework for collective security guaranteeing that European countries will defend it, but not NATO, and it will not host any foreign troops or weapons.

I am of course describing the EUrophile dream scenario.