TheRomanSlayer
Mabuhay Ang Mga Makapili
I'm not sure if this is the right section to post this kind of thread, so please move this if this is in the wrong area.
POSSIBLE POLISH INTERMARIUM POST-1991:
Could European integration have been more smooth if the old inter-war Intermarium project was implemented in the post-Cold War era? The idea of the Intermarium project was for Poland to essentially lead a collection of Eastern European states that would act as a barrier to both Russia and Germany in the inter-war period, but failed to build it. Could this kind of integration project have been attempted in 1991?
The positive benefit of a post-1991 attempt to build an Intermarium project would be that it will make the integration of Eastern Europe into the EU and even NATO as well. Moreover, the post-1991 Intermarium project might also deter any potential revanchist or revisionist antics on part of Russia in this case.
However, the negative liability of this project is that there could also be lingering ethnic tensions that may occur within said Intermarium, especially regarding Russian minorities in the post-Soviet successor states that would be a part of Intermarium. The Baltic States and Ukraine for the most part, and the issue of Kaliningrad Oblast would also be a thorny issue as well.
RUSSIA-CENTRAL ASIA INTEGRATION:
Central Asia for the most part, had been loyal to the Soviet hardliners during the 1991 failed coup attempt that was destroyed by Boris Yeltsin. While there were some issues within the Central Asian republics (most notably the Jeltoqsan incident in the Kazakh SSR), overall Central Asia had benefited somewhat (or not) from the Soviet government. Moreover, Central Asia is also the focus point in the rehash project in the form of Eurasian integration, namely the Eurasian Economic Union.
Unfortunately, the negative liability in this case would also be ethnic tensions, this time taking into account the demographics as well. Not a single political project could save the Russian population from the demographic decline that is facing them, and fears of the Central Asian population overtaking the Russian population in numbers is perhaps the reason why post-Soviet Russia didn't keep Central Asia. If they did, then Kazakhs would become the second largest ethnic group within Russia, instead of Tatars.
The only benefits of said integration between Russia and Central Asia would be resource based, as in more oil and gas supplies would be found, and they would also put Europe in a disadvantageous position regarding energy supplies. However, Russia-Central Asia integration also runs the risk of them inheriting the same disadvantages that a petro-state and a banana republic would have, namely that prices of oil and gas would have a serious effect on their economies overall unless they diversify.
POSSIBLE POLISH INTERMARIUM POST-1991:
Could European integration have been more smooth if the old inter-war Intermarium project was implemented in the post-Cold War era? The idea of the Intermarium project was for Poland to essentially lead a collection of Eastern European states that would act as a barrier to both Russia and Germany in the inter-war period, but failed to build it. Could this kind of integration project have been attempted in 1991?
The positive benefit of a post-1991 attempt to build an Intermarium project would be that it will make the integration of Eastern Europe into the EU and even NATO as well. Moreover, the post-1991 Intermarium project might also deter any potential revanchist or revisionist antics on part of Russia in this case.
However, the negative liability of this project is that there could also be lingering ethnic tensions that may occur within said Intermarium, especially regarding Russian minorities in the post-Soviet successor states that would be a part of Intermarium. The Baltic States and Ukraine for the most part, and the issue of Kaliningrad Oblast would also be a thorny issue as well.
RUSSIA-CENTRAL ASIA INTEGRATION:
Central Asia for the most part, had been loyal to the Soviet hardliners during the 1991 failed coup attempt that was destroyed by Boris Yeltsin. While there were some issues within the Central Asian republics (most notably the Jeltoqsan incident in the Kazakh SSR), overall Central Asia had benefited somewhat (or not) from the Soviet government. Moreover, Central Asia is also the focus point in the rehash project in the form of Eurasian integration, namely the Eurasian Economic Union.
Unfortunately, the negative liability in this case would also be ethnic tensions, this time taking into account the demographics as well. Not a single political project could save the Russian population from the demographic decline that is facing them, and fears of the Central Asian population overtaking the Russian population in numbers is perhaps the reason why post-Soviet Russia didn't keep Central Asia. If they did, then Kazakhs would become the second largest ethnic group within Russia, instead of Tatars.
The only benefits of said integration between Russia and Central Asia would be resource based, as in more oil and gas supplies would be found, and they would also put Europe in a disadvantageous position regarding energy supplies. However, Russia-Central Asia integration also runs the risk of them inheriting the same disadvantages that a petro-state and a banana republic would have, namely that prices of oil and gas would have a serious effect on their economies overall unless they diversify.