Russia-Ukraine War Politics Thread Mk. 2

I haven't made that claim anywhere, though.
You did and you lie about it now.
Except UALosses does not visit cemeteries or graveyards like Mediazona does, and directly state, as I quoted, that real Ukrainian losses are much higher. Ukrainian data is completely unreliable and has never been supported by Western estimates, either, so we can toss that out.

If you'd like to discuss Western estimates, please elucidate what they are.
So are the Ukrainian losses much higher than UAlosses claim or not? If not, then the source is not comprehensive.
Because they're backed up by solid data that you can confirm, as opposed to unknown officials claiming something off the record?
How can i confirm it? If i had access to such solid data, i would not risk going to prison to try convince you by posting classified data.
If you don't care, then why are you replying? You are free to stop this dialogue at anytime.
So are you, and i reserve the right to sow doubt about your sources on the forum.
To respond, however, we luckily benefit from Mediazona going to graves and pulling from official government announcements too, so even if a family doesn't post about a loss or there's limited means to in a random Oblast, they can still find the grave or a register of the loss at another level.
Do they regularly go to all the graveyards in Russia? I'd like to see hard evidence of that, because logistically that would be a quite notable operation.
That's an interesting claim, can I see a citation for that? Because the average American knows only 8 to 9 people closely, so I'm very curious to hear how Ukraine is so different.
But the question in the poll is "relatives and friends" not "people known closely".
The average person probably could figure out 9 first and second cousins alone and those count as relatives.
So pox upon you for trying to employ statistical wizardry 101 against all the readers.

You didn't ask for the link, but here you go for the most recent survey. You should also remember I am not the topic of this thread.
I'm not trusting google translate crap, sorry. The translation of "close relatives" given there probably has slightly different meaning in Ukraine than you think, if it's anything like in Polish, this would translate simply to "family and friends".
Except the Western and Central regions of Ukraine are nowhere near the frontline, but report the highest losses. In fact, this claim makes even less sense when you look at the data:



So no, the frontline regions can't explain it when they only account for 9% of the Pre-War population, yet 63% of the population in total knows someone who died.
They do not report losses at all, they report number of people who know someone who got killed. You are trying more statistical wizardry, which does not constitute data. If everyone knows 200 people, and 25 million Ukrainians in Ukraine know at least one person who died, that could well mean 125k total civilian and military deaths, not unrealistic.
 
Last edited:
You did and you lie about it now.

I did not, so please quote me where I said that then.

So are the Ukrainian losses much higher than UAlosses claim or not? If not, then the source is not comprehensive.

I cited them saying their number is a floor, and that real losses are much higher.

How can i confirm it? If i had access to such solid data, i would not risk going to prison to try convince you by posting classified data.

Or, you could use the freely available data that sources like Mediazona use to get a floor and from there, as they show, a reasonable upper limit of losses.

So are you, and i reserve the right to sow doubt about your sources on the forum.

I am not the subject of this thread, however.

Do they regularly go to all the graveyards in Russia? I'd like to see hard evidence of that, because logistically that would be a quite notable operation.

Who says they have to? Orbital satellite data is a thing.

But the question in the poll is "relatives and friends" not "people known closely".
The average person probably could figure out 9 first and second cousins alone and those count as relatives.
So pox upon you for trying to employ statistical wizardry 101 against all the readers.

Except the polling explicitly says relatives and close friends, not just friends. Average household size in Ukraine is 2.58, so no there is no way you could get to nine with first and second cousins.

I'm not trusting google translate crap, sorry.

Here's the original data in Ukrainian, feel free to use whatever translator you like on it.

They do not report losses at all, they report number of people who know someone who got killed.

Given the poll is of Ukrainians, that would mean total Ukrainian losses are far higher. Not exactly sure what you were attempting to do here.

You are trying more statistical wizardry, which does not constitute data. If everyone knows 200 people, and 25 million Ukrainians in Ukraine know at least one person who died, that could well mean 125k total civilian and military deaths, not unrealistic.

Except the poll specifies close friends or family, and the average person only knows 6 to 20 people closely outside family. Likewise, if it was mostly civilian deaths, why are the deaths largely in the Western regions, which are nowhere near the frontlines? Why would there be lower deaths in the East where the war is directly being fought?
 
I did not, so please quote me where I said that then.



I cited them saying their number is a floor, and that real losses are much higher.

You just said it again. You say the real losses are much higher, so the data is not comprehensive according to you. Do we need to go through this please quote me cycle when you pretend you didn't say things you said just to waste my time?
Or, you could use the freely available data that sources like Mediazona use to get a floor and from there, as they show, a reasonable upper limit of losses.
No, i will not use Mediazona because it is not comprehensive data, and i have no use for a floor and i'm not interested in such statistical voodoo as trying to guess the upper limit from a floor.
Sorry, imagine whatever number you want and live in your own world in your own head, but i will not never take your imaginary world seriously, if you write about it on the forum i will mock it.
I am not the subject of this thread, however.
And neither am i.
Who says they have to? Orbital satellite data is a thing.
Are they paying for regular, centimeter grade resolution angled sat photos of all graveyards in Russia?
I would love to see that...
Except the polling explicitly says relatives and close friends, not just friends. Average household size in Ukraine is 2.58, so no there is no way you could get to nine with first and second cousins.
No, that's ua-en google translation claiming "relatives and close friends", and google translation cannot be trusted in such matters, if you think otherwise, that says things about your competence in such things only.
And wtf does household size have to do with average number of cousins, do all the cousins you have live in the same physical building you do? I live with no cousins in the household, all live in different towns and cities, few even in different countries.

Here's the original data in Ukrainian, feel free to use whatever translator you like on it.
Yes, i know.
Given the poll is of Ukrainians, that would mean total Ukrainian losses are far higher.
No, it would not necessarily mean that.
Not exactly sure what you were attempting to do here.
Questioning your guesswork.
Except the poll specifies close friends or family,
No, shitty google translation of the title specifies that.
and the average person only knows 6 to 20 people closely outside family. Likewise, if it was mostly civilian deaths, why are the deaths largely in the Western regions,
No, they aren't largerly in western regions, they are only a bit higher in western regions.
Also statistically it's junk, as there is massive variation in what different people define as " relatives and friends".
For example this says average Brit has 40 friends.
Add to that the emotional charge of a war applied to defining those relationships - "oh this guy i know died in the war, so yeah i totally lost a friend", and this is basically an exercise in futility to try estimate losses from such a poll.
which are nowhere near the frontlines? Why would there be lower deaths in the East where the war is directly being fought?
Well the question is about whether they know a person who died, that includes friends who live in the East. Is it not a thing to have friends living in other parts of the country where you live?
Also remember those massive long range missile strikes that are leading to depletion of Russian stockpile of such? Obviously long range missiles aren't used for the frontline, much shorter ranged ones reach there...
 
You just said it again. You say the real losses are much higher, so the data is not comprehensive according to you. Do we need to go through this please quote me cycle when you pretend you didn't say things you said just to waste my time?

Yes, because this is what started that quote chain and has nothing to do what what you're saying it means now:

So one source for comparison is shit and the other one is also shit, so what's the point of it?

You've switched what you were arguing on half way through this. Perhaps take a breath, and then calmly explain-ideally with quotes of what I said-what you're attempting to argue on.

No, i will not use Mediazona because it is not comprehensive data, and i have no use for a floor and i'm not interested in such statistical voodoo as trying to guess the upper limit from a floor.

In other words, there is no objective basis that you place your opinions on and thus it would be rational to dismiss your claims on that basis.

Sorry, imagine whatever number you want and live in your own world in your own head, but i will not never take your imaginary world seriously, if you write about it on the forum i will mock it.

I am also not the subject of this thread.

And neither am i.

Then perhaps quit derailing by making it about me?
Are they paying for regular, centimeter grade resolution angled sat photos of all graveyards in Russia?
I would love to see that...

Who says they have to? To be burying hundreds of thousands of bodies would be obvious from the logistics alone, as would the massive amounts of burial ground expansion that would require.

No, that's ua-en google translation claiming "relatives and close friends", and google translation cannot be trusted in such matters, if you think otherwise, that says things about your competence in such things only.

No, it's literally quoted from the article and you can run it through multiple different translators if you want or email KIIS, they'll tell you the same. If you feel otherwise, please quote the correct translation in your opinion.

And wtf does household size have to do with average number of cousins, do all the cousins you have live in the same physical building you do? I live with no cousins in the household, all live in different towns and cities, few even in different countries.

Because if the average family size is ~2.6, that means you're only going to have one or two cousins at most. Nowhere near the nine you claimed. If you feel otherwise, please cite something about Ukrainian family size.

Yes, i know.

Okay, then having been able to run it through a translator of your choice, do you concede on the previous point?

No, it would not necessarily mean that.

It literally would, however. If you feel otherwise, please explain.

Questioning your guesswork.

That's certainly fine, but are you going to start answering my questions too?

No, shitty google translation of the title specifies that.

Okay, then having had the opportunity to run it through the translator of your choice, what does it actually say then? Please quote it for us all.

No, they aren't largerly in western regions, they are only a bit higher in western regions.

But it literally is, 52% in the East say they have lost someone vs 69% in the West, that's roughly 30% more in the West than East.

Also statistically it's junk, as there is massive variation in what different people define as " relatives and friends".
For example this says average Brit has 40 friends.

Except the poll, once again, specifies close friends, not just friends. Do you have any sources on Ukraine to suggest they consider more people as close friends than elsewhere?
Add to that the emotional charge of a war applied to defining those relationships - "oh this guy i know died in the war, so yeah i totally lost a friend", and this is basically an exercise in futility to try estimate losses from such a poll.

There's no evidence that's the case, because they can't claim someone was a friend if they literally didn't know them; otherwise how would they know they died? Taking the claim at face value, however, let's go with this number you've provided.

35 Million Ukrainians Pre-War, 63% of that is ~22,000,000 and dividing that by 40 is 550,000 KIA and WIA. Take in note, the average Ukrainian knows three people who have died, but I'm not factoring that in.

Well the question is about whether they know a person who died, that includes friends who live in the East. Is it not a thing to have friends living in other parts of the country where you live?

It certainly is, but we already pointed out the statistically impossibility of that being the case because KIIS the Pre-War areas are only 9% of the population and a large percentage of them became refugees and thus aren't dead.

Also remember those massive long range missile strikes that are leading to depletion of Russian stockpile of such? Obviously long range missiles aren't used for the frontline, much shorter ranged ones reach there...

Which would be hard to imagine, given the claimed interception rate on said missiles is 90% and you noted the depletion of said missiles, so how exactly were they killing hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians if they didn't exist?
 
Yes, because this is what started that quote chain and has nothing to do what what you're saying it means now:



You've switched what you were arguing on half way through this. Perhaps take a breath, and then calmly explain-ideally with quotes of what I said-what you're attempting to argue on.
I stand by what i said. Go back and read it again, and again, and again, until you understand it.
In other words, there is no objective basis that you place your opinions on and thus it would be rational to dismiss your claims on that basis.
You asked what data i prefer, and i gave you western and Ukrainian data. Just not mediazona. Sorry, i refuse to recognize the superiority of mediazona data over the abovementioned, sue me, i think the opposite is true.
Then perhaps quit derailing by making it about me?
Can you stop pushing crude statistical wizardry attempts?
Who says they have to? To be burying hundreds of thousands of bodies would be obvious from the logistics alone, as would the massive amounts of burial ground expansion that would require.
No it would not.
Have you heard of cremation and grave reuse?
Are you trolling or have you genuinely not heard of such things?
For one Russian funeral industry is doing very well and military burials are its big new thing:
No, it's literally quoted from the article and you can run it through multiple different translators if you want or email KIIS, they'll tell you the same. If you feel otherwise, please quote the correct translation in your opinion.
Internet translators are crap, news at eleven. I don't know Ukrainian so i will not make definitive statement, but i know another slavic language and this claim looks dodgy to me.
Because if the average family size is ~2.6, that means you're only going to have one or two cousins at most. Nowhere near the nine you claimed. If you feel otherwise, please cite something about Ukrainian family size.
No, it does not mean that, and if you think it does, everyone can make their conclusion out of that.
Okay, then having been able to run it through a translator of your choice, do you concede on the previous point?
Absolutely not.
It literally would, however. If you feel otherwise, please explain.
There is no study of the same methodology and statistical environment in Russia, so you are trying to compare statistical apples to statistical oranges, so it literally cannot.
That's certainly fine, but are you going to start answering my questions to?
I will answer them if i feel like it.
Okay, then having had the opportunity to run it through the translator of your choice, what does it actually say then? Please quote it for us all.
It says internet translators cannot be trusted to be accurate in such nuanced definitions.
But it literally is, 52% in the East say they have lost someone vs 69% in the West, that's roughly 30% more in the West than East.
Does 30% more constitute "largerly"?

Except the poll, once again, specifies close friends, not just friends. Do you have any sources on Ukraine to suggest they consider more people as close friends than elsewhere?


There's no evidence that's the case, because they can't claim someone was a friend if they literally didn't know them; otherwise how would they know they died? Taking the claim at face value, however, let's go with this number you've provided.
There is no universal definition distinguishing close friend from friend, every person's line between these two lies elsewhere, hence, statistically it's junk data.
35 Million Ukrainians Pre-War, 63% of that is ~22,000,000 and dividing that by 40 is 550,000 KIA and WIA.
Not just friends, friends and family, so please, don't run with bad definitions.
Secondly, compared to your link, so is it 6 to 20, or 40? I was trying to point out how wildly different results can theorizing on how many friends the average person has give, varying with who, where and how exactly asks who, hence i say it is extremely unreliable data for the purpose of establishing war losses. And i'm not interested in using statistical voodoo to try support pro-Russian narratives, i know other people are, but i will not give my seal of approval to their efforts, quite the opposite.
It certainly is, but we already pointed out the statistically impossibility of that being the case because KIIS the Pre-War areas are only 9% of the population and a large percentage of them became refugees and thus aren't dead.
But nearly all of the refugees would know dead people, and a whole lot of people living near the pre-war areas also obviously have a lot of friends and family there.
Which would be hard to imagine, given the claimed interception rate on said missiles is 90% and you noted the depletion of said missiles, so how exactly were they killing hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians if they didn't exist?
They aren't killing hundreds of thousands, tens of thousands maybe.
 
Last edited:
Don't we have data showing that in the two major areas of fighting losses in general (vehicle mainly but some casualties observed by phots and video) have the Russians losing much more stuff then Ukrainians
 
Don't we have data showing that in the two major areas of fighting losses in general (vehicle mainly but some casualties observed by phots and video) have the Russians losing much more stuff then Ukrainians
The visually confirmed losses of hardware in the area of the Ukrainian offensive were close to equal, with the Ukrainians losing slightly more.

The visually confirmed losses in the Avdivka area, where the Russians went on the offensive, were hilariously lopsided, with the Russians suffering like 8:1 loss ratios.
 
The visually confirmed losses of hardware in the area of the Ukrainian offensive were close to equal, with the Ukrainians losing slightly more.
I think it recently changed to UA being slightly lower
The visually confirmed losses in the Avdivka area, where the Russians went on the offensive, were hilariously lopsided, with the Russians suffering like 8:1 loss ratios.
That is right for sure
 
Polish foreign policy expert reveals some behind the scenes details of the rumored peace deal between Ukraine and Russia from April 2022 that gets lots of silly conspiracy theories centered around it.
Spoiler: It was as obviously bad faith as you could imagine.
 
As to the map of new highway - amusingly going due east from the white dot denting Buzau leads to the Ukrainian border ...
But:
1 - I have no idea about bridges between the Budjiak and rest of Ukraine over the lower Dniestr
2 - Siret is further from the front

But first and foremost it would be the backbone of road network of the Romanian part of Moldavia. Selling it as somehow war related is good PR, I suppose. Maybe a way to get more outside funds?
Also, it could become the preferred road for traffic from (or through) Poland to east Balkans, bypassing Hungary.
 
As to the map of new highway - amusingly going due east from the white dot denting Buzau leads to the Ukrainian border ...
But:
1 - I have no idea about bridges between the Budjiak and rest of Ukraine over the lower Dniestr
2 - Siret is further from the front

But first and foremost it would be the backbone of road network of the Romanian part of Moldavia. Selling it as somehow war related is good PR, I suppose. Maybe a way to get more outside funds?
Also, it could become the preferred road for traffic from (or through) Poland to east Balkans, bypassing Hungary.
All of Moldova is Romanian. Same language, almost identical cultures with Russian corrupting influences on the Moldovan side. The difference is the Soviets imposed Cyrillic on Moldova on pain of death and gulags to create a disconnect between Romanians on both sides of Stalin's arbitrary border. They succeeded.

The bridge will be last I believe. Military infrastructure has to be built up to defend it from any "malfunctioning missile" the Russians might try.
 
All of Moldova is Romanian. Same language, almost identical cultures with Russian influences on the Moldovan side. The difference is the Soviets imposed Cyrillic on Moldova on pain of death and gulags to create a disconnect between Romanians on both sides of Stalin's arbitrary border. They succeeded.

The bridge will be last I believe. Military infrastructure has to be built up to defend it from any "malfunctioning missile" the Russians might try.
This is true.
 
Ukraine will fight until Russia is expelled.
Peace is not an option until they have thier land back
 
Soviets imposed Cyrillic on Moldova
Reintorduced. Romanian was written in Greek/Cyrilic script since the dawn of time to mid XIXth century.
By "Romanian part" I meant that part of Moldavia which makes part of the Republic of Romania, and not the Republic of Moldavia.
 
Reintorduced. Romanian was written in Greek/Cyrilic script since the dawn of time to mid XIXth century.
By "Romanian part" I meant that part of Moldavia which makes part of the Republic of Romania, and not the Republic of Moldavia.
Greek script and Cyrillic are not the same. Cyrill and Methodious copied the Greek capital letters and added characters they invented for Slavic syllables and sounds for the writing system they invented for the Bulgarian Empire.

Imposed. Russian Cyrillic was similar but not the same as the Bulgarian Cyrillic that was used in Romania. There were characters in Bulgar Cyrillic not in the Russian Cyrillic and vice versa. You can blame Ivan the Terrible's centralization reforms for that, he wanted the Russian Imperial Standard unique from the "Lesser Slavs." Even back then Russians were assholes to others.
 
Oddly enough, I find Cyrilic and Coptic to be very smilar, i.e. "squarish", and thus quite distinct from the Greek cursive script.
 
Oddly enough, I find Cyrilic and Coptic to be very smilar, i.e. "squarish", and thus quite distinct from the Greek cursive script.
The over simplified explanation is Coptic was a move to make heiroglyphs more accessible to ordinary people started by the Greek settlers from Alexander's conquest.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top