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You are right,we would have independent Texas here,at least till USA come after Louisiana. Which would happen,but after 1880./maybe during second carlist war?/

If it remain in spanish hands,notching should change for next 50 years or more.1846 war with Mexico would take parts of Mexico,not spanish lands. Probably no cyvil war here - Southern states would be to weak to do anytching. But,in 1898 we would have invasion - or,few years earlier. So,it would...