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Scenario 1 - i think,that if tsars focused on America,they could ignore Europe till 1812 Napoleon invasion - which would still happen,becouse Russia would be England ally here. And, they would take and keep California here. Europe - Poland still exist/as weak country controlled by others/...

I just reading "Koniec rosyjskiej Ameryki" by Marek Budzisz/my translation - end of russian america" He wrote about how russian conqered those lands,and when decided to sell it/after 1857 - they knew,that somebody would take it by force anyway,so they decide to sell it instead/...