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Depends on the monarch's skills. Could be to the this day. LIthuania was in a way easier to rule than Poland, as the magnates were more powerful. Thus less impact of the szlachta mob on politics - easier to work along/appease a few score of Houses than several tens of thousands of riff-raff.

This is more or less what I was thinking off - a split election of 1572 leading to a Calvinist led (still with Orthodox majority) Lithuania. Or even better - 1575 - Maximilian II takes the matter seriously and beats Stephan Bathory in the race to Cracow and is Crowned. Civil War ensues...

Looking at these individually: 1 - a Protestant Jagiellon-by-distaff is remotely possible. Look up Zygmunt Stary, look at his daughters and their sons. I've already pointed out Albert II of Prussia. IMO Jan Zygmunt Zapolya, once he goes Unitarian, is out. Non-trinitarianism is a no-no, for...

The premise is too broad for me, chasing too many birds. Top of mind - more Calvinism = more witch burning. The Prots were really into it ... BTW, a LOT of events leading to "region X going Prot/Kafflik" depends upon individuals and what hapened to them. Who had a heir etc. E.g. one or two of...