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Alternate History as a genre is about making assumptions on things that didn't happen. What allows us to separate the good from the bad is relying upon the existing historical evidence-with well reasoned speculation-to come to the most likely outcome. In this regard, I think my scenario outline...

The unclear nature of the divergence introduces a lot of uncertainty, so I'm leaning on the "No Fall of France" aspect. By 1940, both Spain and Portugal are under Fascist or Fascist leaning regimes which have much in common with Italy. Libya, and East Africa in the form of modern Ethiopia...

In terms of matching China's GDP? Definitely it wouldn't, given sheer population disparities alone, but in terms of being a powerful relic of Fascism in the same way China is of Communism? Sure, I can definitely see that. With control over Libya (and likely Eritrea too) and no WWII disaster, I...

I could easily see Fascist Italy emerging as one of the strongest states, and becoming the Fascist analogue to modern Communist China. It would be a nuclear power and to a fair degree self sufficient, thanks to control over Libya and likely Eritrea too. I'd imagine in the long run it would let...