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  1. M

    Tetlock and the Taliban

    All 3 of these fall under the category where being wrong in the correct way translates to solid career and certain pay, while being right is more likely than not to get one outright cancelled and professionally ruined. So guess what kind of experts stay in the field with this kind of selection...
  2. M

    Tetlock and the Taliban

    I think there is an obvious problem responsible for a lot of the wrongness of experts. As the old saying goes, whoever pays the piper picks the tune. Our experts are not 19th century inventors, with more or less independent wealth and a lab or workshop in their backyard, living or dying on...
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