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I reckon you most likely would see some sort of embargo on Japan, as China lobby was quite strong, but USA probably wouldn't lean on DEI like it did OTL. However with their internal dynamics, it's quite possible that Japan would still invade British and Dutch Asian colonies to secure the...

Lend-Lease didn't matter much in 1941, if Soviets mobilize before Barbarossa starts, they would be able to limit the depth of German advance and evacuate more of the industry, so the lack of Lend-Lease wouldn't be so pressing.

British take even more conservative military strategy and probably stalemate the Germans and Italians in North Africa at El Alamein. Malta is most likely eventually lost. You are correct that UK is unlikely to have good outlook for victory in this scenario, even with the resources of the empire...