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What I find interesting, frankly, is that Sokoto was a relative success story in the late 19th century and yet would be a total shithole in the late 20th century. What changed?

@Circle of Willis As a side note, I wonder if an independent Sokoto could eventually become an African version of ISIS. Seriously. Religious radicalism isn't exactly rare in northern Nigeria today and if an African version of ISIS does subsequently develop there, I wonder if it could...

Yeah, Kazakhstan was stable for 30 years before finally imploding right now.

Norway has managed to deal with the resource curse pretty well, as have both Russia and Kazakhstan.

Rump Nigeria becomes dominated by Muslims and is also hurt due to the loss of its likely Igbo cognitive elite. AFAIK, the Igbos are the Jews of Sub-Saharan Africa. And Yes, this could also result in Yorubaland likewise breaking away from Nigeria, in which case Nigeria simply becomes a...