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Good analysis. Re: Napoleon: He himself likely won't be born in this TL due to the butterfly effect, but someone similar could rise in his place, albeit not necessarily from the same family. Still, an "alt-Napoleon" might not necessarily be willing to alienate Europe as much as the real Napoleon...

Who ends up getting the Austrian Netherlands in this TL? You can decide what happens to the Welfs. And Yes, Austria will very likely seek to reacquire Silesia in this scenario. And even if the partitions of Poland still occur, the lines are going to be different here, no? Prussia will be in a...

What if Empress Elizabeth of Russia dies a little bit later? Say, a couple of years or more later than she did in real life? One huge effect of this would be that she and not her nephew, Tsar Peter III, would be in charge of dictating the peace settlement in Europe at the end of the Seven Years'...