AHC: No independent nor autonomous Bulgaria emerges until at least 1918

[raharris1973]

Here's the challenge- With a PoD of no earlier than 1871, have Ottoman-ruled Bulgaria fail to become independent, autonomous, or otherwise European supervised until at least 1918.

 

[raharris1973]

Adding two supplements -

With a PoD no earlier than 1815, have Ottoman-ruled Greece, Wallachia, and Moldavia fail to become independent or autonomous until at least 1900.

With a PoD no earlier than 1800, have Ottoman-ruled Serbia fail to become independent or autonomous until at least 1900.

 

[WolfBear]

Here's the challenge- With a PoD of no earlier than 1871, have Ottoman-ruled Bulgaria fail to become independent, autonomous, or otherwise European supervised until at least 1918.

Simple: Have Russian Tsar Alexander II die from some illness or assassination or something in 1871 and then have his son Alexander III take over. Alexander III decides that a war with the Ottoman Empire over Bulgaria in 1877-1878 and instead looks for some kind of negotiated solution to this problem. Maybe he does a bit of saber-rattling, but he still wants to avoid war and save face with some kind of negotiated solution, which the Ottomans are quick to grasp. Heck, this might even delay Romania's independence as well. Not sure about Serbia and Montenegro, of course. Greek independence is already a done deal by then, though.

 

[raharris1973]

But is it that simple. Can a negotiated outcome leave the lands of Bulgaria just a a collection of normal Ottoman vilayets without special status, a total defeat for rebels?

Can the Bulgarian rebellion be prevented.

Can that Ottoman border status quo of 1875 in Europe with Bulgaria, Rumelia, Thessaly, Bosnia, all under absolute sovereignty, Greece independent, and Romania, Serbia, and Montenegro as de facto independent autonomies under Ottoman suzerainty endure without any further disadvantage to the Ottomans through 1918?

When I've suggested the possibility before, posters of Balkan background have called the idea preposterous.

 

[WolfBear]

But is it that simple. Can a negotiated outcome leave the lands of Bulgaria just a a collection of normal Ottoman vilayets without special status, a total defeat for rebels?

Can the Bulgarian rebellion be prevented.

Can that Ottoman border status quo of 1875 in Europe with Bulgaria, Rumelia, Thessaly, Bosnia, all under absolute sovereignty, Greece independent, and Romania, Serbia, and Montenegro as de facto independent autonomies under Ottoman suzerainty endure without any further disadvantage to the Ottomans through 1918?

When I've suggested the possibility before, posters of Balkan background have called the idea preposterous.

You're right: Bulgaria would need to be at least autonomous within the Ottoman Empire in such a scenario.

 

[raharris1973]

You're right: Bulgaria would need to be at least autonomous within the Ottoman Empire in such a scenario.

with autonomy being defined as it was in OTL? Having a European Christian (probably German) prince as ruler, and international guarantees?

 

[WolfBear]

with autonomy being defined as it was in OTL? Having a European Christian (probably German) prince as ruler, and international guarantees?

Probably. How else is it supposed to be defined?

Also, off-topic, but this thread of mine might interest you:

https://www.the-sietch.com/index.php?threads/polands-eastern-borders-if-the-whites-win-the-russian-civil-war-and-if-theres-no-wwi-but-russia-still-eventually-has-a-revolution.6989/