AHC: Weaker Counter-Reformation, no Jesuits - possible Calvinism boom?

[raharris1973]

Here's the challenge - how could we significantly weaken the Counter-Reformation. Possibly, as part of this, forestalling Ignatius Loya's creation of the Jesuit order and all its skilled organizational, missionary, and educational work. How much further does Protestantism spread, and dominate in Europe, and which types of Protestantism dominate vacuums where Catholicism may be weaker? I am thinking in non-German and non-Scandinavian lands, Calvinistic Protestantism would probably be the main beneficiary. Could we see Calvinism become hegemonic among Hungarian and Transylvanian Christians, including the Croatians? Could Calvinism become hegemonic among all classes of Polish and Lithuanian Christian nobility, both high magnates, and low szlachta, and townspeople, leaving no support in the country for parish churches so leading to Calvinism and and then Baptist variants to filter down to the serfs and peasants?

What about the church situation in Ireland? A larger Huguenot minority in France, potentially unexpellable and insuppressible?

Substantively - Gaelic Ireland's staunch Catholicism is often reduced to simple opposition to opposition to English overlordship and colonization, often using Scots Presbyterians as colonial proxies. But on at least one occasion I've read there was more to it than mere reaction - the Church's affirmative efforts to keep in touch with the Irish flock, and keep ties with Catholics in Ireland and Irish exiles on the continent, particularly the educational efforts of the Jesuits, had something to to with Irish Catholic endurance.

With a weaker Counter-Reformation, might more native and Gaelic Irish assimilate to Church of Ireland, basically the local branch of Church of England Anglicanism? Or into the Presbyterian Calvinism of their Scots neighbors? Or be particular ripe for 'nonconforming' types of Protestantism a bit differentiated from the Anglican establishment and Presbyterian imports, like Baptist sects, or Methodism spread by circuit riders and camp meetings, as that becomes a phenomenon?

 

[Buba]

The premise is too broad for me, chasing too many birds.

Top of mind - more Calvinism = more witch burning. The Prots were really into it ...

BTW, a LOT of events leading to "region X going Prot/Kafflik" depends upon individuals and what hapened to them. Who had a heir etc.
E.g. one or two of Sigismund Augustus' Protestant nephews live - instead of maliciously popping their cogs in the 1560s - and he appoints them his successor (or successors, if Poland and Lithuania stays separate).
Imagine Jan Zygmunt Zapolya king of Poland and/or Grand Duke of Lithuania. Fun and games all around, as he was an Unitarian [HISS!BOO! NOISES IN A CATHOLIC/LUTHERAN/CALVINIST/ORTHODOX CHORUS] ...
Or Albert II of Prussia (great-grandson of Kazimierz Jagiellończyk, German-Polish bilingual ) not going crazy and no Zamojski-led clique shooting down his candidacy for the Polish throne.

And then in 1620 Poland/PLC is sympathtic to the rebels, they win, and Czechia with Slovakia (separate issue but linked to events in Czechia) go Prot.

On a smaller scale - have both branches of the Radziwił family remain Protestant. Have this conflict

Cologne War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

go in the witchburners' favour and you have all the German north-west Calvinist ...

 

[ATP]

Here's the challenge - how could we significantly weaken the Counter-Reformation. Possibly, as part of this, forestalling Ignatius Loya's creation of the Jesuit order and all its skilled organizational, missionary, and educational work. How much further does Protestantism spread, and dominate in Europe, and which types of Protestantism dominate vacuums where Catholicism may be weaker? I am thinking in non-German and non-Scandinavian lands, Calvinistic Protestantism would probably be the main beneficiary. Could we see Calvinism become hegemonic among Hungarian and Transylvanian Christians, including the Croatians? Could Calvinism become hegemonic among all classes of Polish and Lithuanian Christian nobility, both high magnates, and low szlachta, and townspeople, leaving no support in the country for parish churches so leading to Calvinism and and then Baptist variants to filter down to the serfs and peasants?

What about the church situation in Ireland? A larger Huguenot minority in France, potentially unexpellable and insuppressible?

Substantively - Gaelic Ireland's staunch Catholicism is often reduced to simple opposition to opposition to English overlordship and colonization, often using Scots Presbyterians as colonial proxies. But on at least one occasion I've read there was more to it than mere reaction - the Church's affirmative efforts to keep in touch with the Irish flock, and keep ties with Catholics in Ireland and Irish exiles on the continent, particularly the educational efforts of the Jesuits, had something to to with Irish Catholic endurance.

With a weaker Counter-Reformation, might more native and Gaelic Irish assimilate to Church of Ireland, basically the local branch of Church of England Anglicanism? Or into the Presbyterian Calvinism of their Scots neighbors? Or be particular ripe for 'nonconforming' types of Protestantism a bit differentiated from the Anglican establishment and Presbyterian imports, like Baptist sects, or Methodism spread by circuit riders and camp meetings, as that becomes a phenomenon?

Luther made all kings mini-super popes,so rulers would prefer his version to Calvinism.

 

[raharris1973]

Luther made all kings mini-super popes,so rulers would prefer his version to Calvinism.

Calvinism did end up with a wide real-world following, thanks to America and the Anglosphere, but there is something correct to what you are saying. The German Princes, and Dukes and Prince-Electors who became Protestant, and the Scandinavian Kings, became Lutheran, not Calvinist. Two of the Brandenburg Hohenzollerns or so did experiment with Calvinism but later went back to Lutheranism. Luther was very deferential to monarchs and secular princes, but it was not quite making them Popes in the sense of the English monarchs in Anglicanism. Two of the earliest predominantly Calvinist countries, Switzerland and Netherlands, were republics, non-monarchical in nature. The German areas that were Calvinist were cities or relatively small time Principalities. Scotland was probably the biggest exception, with its Kings accepting a change to Calvinist Presbyterianism.

Interestingly, despite Protestantism's greater deference to monarchs and removal of Papal interference, in the centuries after the Reformation, more Protestant monarchs were tempted by Catholicism, and Orthodoxy even, than vice versa. It was almost like the later Stuart Kings and pretenders of England liked the idea of having the support of higher Papal and Divine powers than themselves. Maybe Queen Christina of Sweden had the same thoughts. Maybe the later Wettin Augustus of Saxony thought so too, right in the Electorate that had sheltered Luther - of course maybe he thought the Catholic marriage market was better and he could live large if eligible to be elected King of Poland. I don't know if any of the Vasa Polish Kings converted from Lutheranism to Catholicism just to be eligible.

The premise is too broad for me, chasing too many birds.

Top of mind - more Calvinism = more witch burning. The Prots were really into it ...

BTW, a LOT of events leading to "region X going Prot/Kafflik" depends upon individuals and what hapened to them. Who had a heir etc.
E.g. one or two of Sigismund Augustus' Protestant nephews live - instead of maliciously popping their cogs in the 1560s - and he appoints them his successor (or successors, if Poland and Lithuania stays separate).
Imagine Jan Zygmunt Zapolya king of Poland and/or Grand Duke of Lithuania. Fun and games all around, as he was an Unitarian [HISS!BOO! NOISES IN A CATHOLIC/LUTHERAN/CALVINIST/ORTHODOX CHORUS] ...
Or Albert II of Prussia (great-grandson of Kazimierz Jagiellończyk, German-Polish bilingual ) not going crazy and no Zamojski-led clique shooting down his candidacy for the Polish throne.

And then in 1620 Poland/PLC is sympathtic to the rebels, they win, and Czechia with Slovakia (separate issue but linked to events in Czechia) go Prot.

On a smaller scale - have both branches of the Radziwił family remain Protestant. Have this conflict

Cologne War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

go in the witchburners' favour and you have all the German north-west Calvinist ...

Are you proposing each of these as individual ideas, or that you could have a PLC ruler who is Protestant or even Unitarian? And a Hussite Bohemia and Calvinist or otherwise Protestant Slovakia/Upper Hungary? Is your thinking these rulers religious preferences could/would trickle down cuius regio cuius religio style to become the dominant religions of their subject populations?

 

[Buba]

Are you proposing each of these as individual ideas, or that you could have a PLC ruler who is Protestant or even Unitarian? And a Hussite Bohemia and Calvinist or otherwise Protestant Slovakia/Upper Hungary? Is your thinking these rulers religious preferences could/would trickle down cuius regio cuius religio style to become the dominant religions of their subject populations?

Looking at these individually:
1 - a Protestant Jagiellon-by-distaff is remotely possible. Look up Zygmunt Stary, look at his daughters and their sons. I've already pointed out Albert II of Prussia. IMO Jan Zygmunt Zapolya, once he goes Unitarian, is out. Non-trinitarianism is a no-no, for Catholic, Orhtodox and mainstream Protestant alike. So the not-dead in the 1560s prince would have to be Lutheran or Calvinist. In my uninformed view this could butterfly the PLC (go Poland! No Lithuanian millstone around your neck!) .
2 - a knock off a Protestant - or with Protestant ruler and larger than OTL Protestant minority - Poland/PLC is that different 18619/20 events could lead to Czechia staying Protestant. BTW - Hussites after 1435 were in Comunion with Rome (most of them, and most of the time; it is complicated ). During the Reformation many went Lutheran, while others stayed "uniate".
3 - yes, another knock off ALT 1619/20 could be a Lutheran (it was popular there in OTL) Slovakia . Transylvania - with its OTL mix of Calvinist and Unitarian Hungarians, Lutheran Saxons and Orthodox Romanians (Uniates came after XVIth century) - is dependent upon the fate of Jan Zygmunt Zapolya.
4 - yes, that's what I imagine. As rulers in Poland/Lithuania/Czechia/Hungarian remnants do not have the power to enforce cuius regio cuius religio evangelisation would be voluntary. No Jesuits, most likely, BTW, as they'd not be invited (unless by a magnate). In the PLC - no wave of voluntary re-conversions of magnates to Catholicism under Zygmunt III. In Lithuania this often was a path from Orthodoxy to Calvinism to Catholicism inside 2-3 generations (reads like a who-is who - Chodkiewicz, Żółkiewski, Wiśniowiecki ...). The Lithuanian Houses (with holdings the size of e.g. OTL Belgium) that in OTL went from Orthodox to Catholic under Zygmunt III - Zasławski, Sapieha etc. may have gone Calvinist/whatever.

 

[ATP]

Looking at these individually:
1 - a Protestant Jagiellon-by-distaff is remotely possible. Look up Zygmunt Stary, look at his daughters and their sons. I've already pointed out Albert II of Prussia. IMO Jan Zygmunt Zapolya, once he goes Unitarian, is out. Non-trinitarianism is a no-no, for Catholic, Orhtodox and mainstream Protestant alike. So the not-dead in the 1560s prince would have to be Lutheran or Calvinist. In my uninformed view this could butterfly the PLC (go Poland! No Lithuanian millstone around your neck!) .
2 - a knock off a Protestant - or with Protestant ruler and larger than OTL Protestant minority - Poland/PLC is that different 18619/20 events could lead to Czechia staying Protestant. BTW - Hussites after 1435 were in Comunion with Rome (most of them, and most of the time; it is complicated ). During the Reformation many went Lutheran, while others stayed "uniate".
3 - yes, another knock off ALT 1619/20 could be a Lutheran (it was popular there in OTL) Slovakia . Transylvania - with its OTL mix of Calvinist and Unitarian Hungarians, Lutheran Saxons and Orthodox Romanians (Uniates came after XVIth century) - is dependent upon the fate of Jan Zygmunt Zapolya.
4 - yes, that's what I imagine. As rulers in Poland/Lithuania/Czechia/Hungarian remnants do not have the power to enforce cuius regio cuius religio evangelisation would be voluntary. No Jesuits, most likely, BTW, as they'd not be invited (unless by a magnate). In the PLC - no wave of voluntary re-conversions of magnates to Catholicism under Zygmunt III. In Lithuania this often was a path from Orthodoxy to Calvinism to Catholicism inside 2-3 generations (reads like a who-is who - Chodkiewicz, Żółkiewski, Wiśniowiecki ...). The Lithuanian Houses (with holdings the size of e.g. OTL Belgium) that in OTL went from Orthodox to Catholic under Zygmunt III - Zasławski, Sapieha etc. may have gone Calvinist/whatever.

Calvinist Lithuania do not united with Poland? you are right,better then OTL for us.
As a result - still catholic Poland,but with stronger King.Later could become schizmatic with polish catholic Church,or not.
Becouse i do not see protestant Poland here.

 

[raharris1973]

(or successors, if Poland and Lithuania stays separate)

Why would such a succession change, or a religious change, make Poland and Lithuania stay separate, or go separate?

Do you mean here the two would be tied, but *only* by monarchical personal union, not internal constitutional mechanisms as they were by the 1569 Union of Lublin (why?), or that because of different monarchical successions, the two would fly apart, under entirely separate monarchs, potentially not even allied with each other. Yet both would have Calvinist nobilities, or one would have a nobility more receptive to Calvinism than the other?

@ATP is saying that the Polish ones would stay more true to Catholicism. But that would seem to make it less likely for them to exert pro-Protestant influences on Slovakia (aka Upper Hungary) and Bohemia.

On Protestantism and witch-burning, I suppose that's true.

I would wonder how a more Protestant Poland and/or Lithuania would affect the relative philo-Semitism or Judaeo-tolerance of the region in these centuries. It was a notable feature, simply marked by exception like the Chmielnicki Cossack and peasant uprising.

On the one hand, in Western Europe and Britain, Calvinists tended to have a special liking for the Old Testament, curiosity about Judaism, tolerance for Jews, and some restorationist (to Palestine) fantasies, that seem non-hostile. They also tended to adopt an attitude toward worldly wealth that does not jealously lampoon usury and capitalistic pursuits, tendencies associated with antisemitism. However, if Polish and/or Lithuanian gentry/nobility and wealthy Christian townspeople adopt Calvinism and Calvinist ideals towards money and Calvinism, they soon won't *need* Jews for specialized economic functions, because they would be willing to dabble in trade and loaning at interest themselves, like Dutch and Swiss and English and Scottish and Rhenish Calvinists. And indeed, Jews would be *competition*, so that could *encourage* anti-semitism.

 

[ATP]

Why would such a succession change, or a religious change, make Poland and Lithuania stay separate, or go separate?

Do you mean here the two would be tied, but *only* by monarchical personal union, not internal constitutional mechanisms as they were by the 1569 Union of Lublin (why?), or that because of different monarchical successions, the two would fly apart, under entirely separate monarchs, potentially not even allied with each other. Yet both would have Calvinist nobilities, or one would have a nobility more receptive to Calvinism than the other?

@ATP is saying that the Polish ones would stay more true to Catholicism. But that would seem to make it less likely for them to exert pro-Protestant influences on Slovakia (aka Upper Hungary) and Bohemia.

On Protestantism and witch-burning, I suppose that's true.

I would wonder how a more Protestant Poland and/or Lithuania would affect the relative philo-Semitism or Judaeo-tolerance of the region in these centuries. It was a notable feature, simply marked by exception like the Chmielnicki Cossack and peasant uprising.

On the one hand, in Western Europe and Britain, Calvinists tended to have a special liking for the Old Testament, curiosity about Judaism, tolerance for Jews, and some restorationist (to Palestine) fantasies, that seem non-hostile. They also tended to adopt an attitude toward worldly wealth that does not jealously lampoon usury and capitalistic pursuits, tendencies associated with antisemitism. However, if Polish and/or Lithuanian gentry/nobility and wealthy Christian townspeople adopt Calvinism and Calvinist ideals towards money and Calvinism, they soon won't *need* Jews for specialized economic functions, because they would be willing to dabble in trade and loaning at interest themselves, like Dutch and Swiss and English and Scottish and Rhenish Calvinists. And indeed, Jews would be *competition*, so that could *encourage* anti-semitism.

If Jagiellons die,and we do not agree on next King,then we get separate states.I could imagine Calvinist Lithuania allied with Sweden both against Poland and Moscov.

And,why support czech protestants when Poland is catholic? Catholic France did it,why not Poland?
If we had smarter Kings,of course.
Poland supporting jews - our gentry did it to keep townspeople down,becouse jews destroyed our cities.And,to better opress our peasants.As somebody wrote,Poland was paradise for jews,purgatory for townspeople,and hell for peasants.

It was not sometching to be proud about,and it helped destroy Poland.

 

[Buba]

If Jagiellons die,and we do not agree on next King,then we get separate states.I could imagine Calvinist Lithuania allied with Sweden both against Poland and Moscov.

This is more or less what I was thinking off - a split election of 1572 leading to a Calvinist led (still with Orthodox majority) Lithuania.
Or even better - 1575 - Maximilian II takes the matter seriously and beats Stephan Bathory in the race to Cracow and is Crowned. Civil War ensues, Habsburgs manage to brings Poland under control, but have to let Lithuania go ...
Like I said, having more grandsons of Zygmunt I (by distaff) around changes the landscape a LOT.

I would wonder how a more Protestant Poland and/or Lithuania would affect the relative philo-Semitism or Judaeo-tolerance of the region in these centuries. It was a notable feature, simply marked by exception like the Chmielnicki Cossack and peasant uprising.

I know that this is not a historical source, but in a usualy well researched epic, set in the 1650s, the private town of the last Calvinist magante family (Radziwiłł, Kiejdany branch), was described as "Jew free"and thus "clean and orderly" (am quoting from memory, last read it 30 years ago).
I'm fairly certain that @ATP can guess what novel I'm talking about - most old folks like us in Poland had read it.

 

[raharris1973]

How long could a Calvinist ruled, mainly Orthodox at the grassroots and hinterlands, Lithuania, extending from the Baltic through Belarus to Ukraine, from 1572 onward, separated from Poland, allied to Sweden and at odds with Poland and Muscovy last at its full territorial size? It seems ripe to undergo a series of major territorial amputations, probably within two generations or so relieving it at least of any territory south of the Pripet marshes.

 

[Buba]

Depends on the monarch's skills. Could be to the this day. LIthuania was in a way easier to rule than Poland, as the magnates were more powerful. Thus less impact of the szlachta mob on politics - easier to work along/appease a few score of Houses than several tens of thousands of riff-raff.

 

[raharris1973]

Depends on the monarch's skills. Could be to the this day. LIthuania was in a way easier to rule than Poland, as the magnates were more powerful. Thus less impact of the szlachta mob on politics - easier to work along/appease a few score of Houses than several tens of thousands of riff-raff.

Hmm, maybe there is a chance that for the next few centuries, Lithuania is ‘the stronger sister’, still at full size, intermarium from Baltic to Black Sea, - nice alliances with Swedes (or Danes), Prussians, Dutch, either French or English, Ottomans. Poland is “weak sister”, szlachta mob rule, partitioned between Brandenburg, Saxony, Habsburgs, Or maybe Transylvania, Hungary, Bohemia?

 

[ATP]

How long could a Calvinist ruled, mainly Orthodox at the grassroots and hinterlands, Lithuania, extending from the Baltic through Belarus to Ukraine, from 1572 onward, separated from Poland, allied to Sweden and at odds with Poland and Muscovy last at its full territorial size? It seems ripe to undergo a series of major territorial amputations, probably within two generations or so relieving it at least of any territory south of the Pripet marshes.

As long as swedish armies would beat moscovites - in OTL it happened till 1709,but here......Maybe to our times?