raharris1973
Well-known member
What if WWI does not break out in the late summer of 1941, and no general European war breaks out in next dozen years, until at least 1926.
What is the likely political evolution and trajectory of the Kingdom of Italy over this time period?
Will its political order be marked largely by a stable small 'l' liberalism of alternating parties in parliament, in an actually fairly conservative system marked by male privilege, northern privilege, propertied privilege? Will Socialist unrest or disorder become a growing issue? Will any new, dynamic right-wing movements like Fascism emerge, in the absence of the Great War? Will the Church still remain hostile and aloof to the Italian monarchy and secular state, or will some concordat be reached?
In foreign policy, would Italy over these years openly break from the Triple Alliance, or perhaps contrarily recommit to it and increase hostility to France?
If Italy did take a turn toward radical nationalism, perhaps of a rightist variety like Fascism, might Italy support 'Black Hand' style terrorist campaigns by Italians and allied movements, perhaps of Serb and Romanian extremists, against the Austro-Hungarian enemy?
Obviously the general condition of overall peacetime Europe, the Mediterranean, and Italy's colonial territories will affect Italy's politics, society, and economy. Developments in America will be very important too. For example, if, in the absence of the Great War, America remains as open to permanent and temporary seasonal Italian migration through middle 1920s as southern Italians and Sicilians of 1914 had become accustomed to. Or, alternatively, if convergent to OTL, first the American literacy test and then other restrictions and eventually quotas drastically limit the ability to emigrate to the US - that would change circumstances for many Italians in a different way.
Your thoughts?
What is the likely political evolution and trajectory of the Kingdom of Italy over this time period?
Will its political order be marked largely by a stable small 'l' liberalism of alternating parties in parliament, in an actually fairly conservative system marked by male privilege, northern privilege, propertied privilege? Will Socialist unrest or disorder become a growing issue? Will any new, dynamic right-wing movements like Fascism emerge, in the absence of the Great War? Will the Church still remain hostile and aloof to the Italian monarchy and secular state, or will some concordat be reached?
In foreign policy, would Italy over these years openly break from the Triple Alliance, or perhaps contrarily recommit to it and increase hostility to France?
If Italy did take a turn toward radical nationalism, perhaps of a rightist variety like Fascism, might Italy support 'Black Hand' style terrorist campaigns by Italians and allied movements, perhaps of Serb and Romanian extremists, against the Austro-Hungarian enemy?
Obviously the general condition of overall peacetime Europe, the Mediterranean, and Italy's colonial territories will affect Italy's politics, society, and economy. Developments in America will be very important too. For example, if, in the absence of the Great War, America remains as open to permanent and temporary seasonal Italian migration through middle 1920s as southern Italians and Sicilians of 1914 had become accustomed to. Or, alternatively, if convergent to OTL, first the American literacy test and then other restrictions and eventually quotas drastically limit the ability to emigrate to the US - that would change circumstances for many Italians in a different way.
Your thoughts?