Alternate History Greater German Empire in 1848

[Carrot of Truth]

So basically what it says on the tin you get a Germany with these borders in 1848 led by the Hohenzollerns.

Something analogous to what happened OTL with France also happens here that leads to the annexation of Alsace–Lorraine for the sake of the borders in the picture. The backstory on how this all happened is a work in progress, What I am more curious about is what do you think could happen more into the 20th century because of this. One huge change I see is that a strong alliance between the German Empire and Russian Empire can now exist and thrive due to the lack of the Austrio-Hungarian Empire. Also the Kingdom of Hungary and Croatia both exist now but are aligned with this thicc German Empire.

 

[ATP]

Sorry,but no.
Habsburgs say no,and Russia say no.France do not agree,too.

Not mention,that in 1848 germans were no nation yet,and people who served their Kings in Saxony or Bavaria do not have reason to heed some prussian upstars.

You want powerpuff Prussia? wait for 1914,and do not fuck Schieffen plan.Paris taken in 40 days,France fall the same year,Russia in 1915.
Prussian Europe you wanted.

And prussians generals fucked it,becouse they wanted to defend East Prussia - as if there was anytching worth keeping.

 

[Carrot of Truth]

Sorry,but no.
Habsburgs say no,and Russia say no.France do not agree,too.

Not mention,that in 1848 germans were no nation yet,and people who served their Kings in Saxony or Bavaria do not have reason to heed some prussian upstars.

You want powerpuff Prussia? wait for 1914,and do not fuck Schieffen plan.Paris taken in 40 days,France fall the same year,Russia in 1915.
Prussian Europe you wanted.

And prussians generals fucked it,becouse they wanted to defend East Prussia - as if there was anytching worth keeping.

Here is the thing this has already happened in 1848 here, If Germany wages war against Russia they will free a Polish kingdom under their influence. I wanna ignore the how this happened for the most part so we can get on with what happens next.

 

[Circle of Willis]

Realistically I think Britain would freak the hell out, those guys were huge on maintaining the European balance of power and a Großdeutschland throws said balance completely into whack. Historically, they opposed Russian designs on the basis that the Russians getting to realize their Pan-Slavic/Constantinopolitan ambitions would make them too strong and left Napoleon III to get rekt by the Germans because they still thought at the time that a stronger Prussia would be better for the BOP than a strong France, not realizing until it was too late that not only was N3 not the equal of N1 in either ability or ambition but that a united non-greater Germany was still a juggernaut with overwhelming potential. So they'd probably try to assemble a coalition out of anyone they can and bankroll efforts to dismantle this Greater Germany until either they went under, or it did, just as they had gone through seven coalitions to crush France's continent-dominating aspirations. Speaking of which, France isn't suicidal enough to start a fight with a unified Greater Germany on its lonesome even under Napoleon III, so ironically you'd have a surviving Second French Empire with Alsace-Lorraine becoming probably the other main partner in such a coalition with Britain in a hurry.

Thus you'd probably still get WW1 sometime in your early 20th century, with Britain + France leading one side and Großdeutschland leading the other. What the alliances look like is still up in the air, though. If Greater Germany has antagonized Russia, this alt-Entente has more or less the same chance the real one did. If Russia's on the German team (which would probably take this Greater Germany being as friendly to Pan-Slavism as it is to Pan-Germanism), then the alt-Entente had instead best pray the Americans elect a Wilson or FDR-tier '''''neutral''''' who's so friendly to them that he will wade into the fray even if American public opinion strongly opposes getting involved (and ideally a lot faster than they did in their respective world wars), otherwise I can't see how they're going to last past the first Christmas. (Ironically, TR might do, since he was gung-ho about attacking Germany IRL after the sinking of the RMS Lusitania. Just need him to never promise not to run again after 1904 and for a similar incident to happen in this timeline, I guess.)

Italy might also be pro-German depending on whether Großdeutschland gives them the Austrian territories they desired, though they aren't as important a factor as Russia. The reverse is true of the Ottomans, who I think would join the Entente (and indeed were traditionally a British ally) if Russia is pro-German, but again they aren't going to be as important.

The best possible outcome for Großdeutschland that I can think of, in which they manage to avoid a WW1 analogue entirely, is that they somehow strike a deal with the British to let them dominate the continent while giving Britain a completely free hand in maritime/colonial affairs, thereby securing a hopefully eternal or at least long-term peace between the two. But I'm not sure how feasible that would have been, Britain never liked the idea of a universal hegemon on the European continent, supposedly friendly or otherwise. And you don't even need a Wilhelm II-esque zero-charisma diplomatic disaster with lots of personal hangups to get antagonism toward such an arrangement going on the German side either - merely a leader who thinks 'wait, we're arguably the strongest country in Europe, who is Britain to tell us what we can't do?' (A notion that such a leader wouldn't even be unjustified to come up with, mind. Who in history has ever been satisfied with just being an implicit #2 when they really do have the power to seize moar of everything?)

 

[Carrot of Truth]

Realistically I think Britain would freak the hell out, those guys were huge on maintaining the European balance of power and a Großdeutschland throws said balance completely into whack. Historically, they opposed Russian designs on the basis that the Russians getting to realize their Pan-Slavic/Constantinopolitan ambitions would make them too strong and left Napoleon III to get rekt by the Germans because they still thought at the time that a stronger Prussia would be better for the BOP than a strong France, not realizing until it was too late that not only was N3 not the equal of N1 in either ability or ambition but that a united non-greater Germany was still a juggernaut with overwhelming potential. So they'd probably try to assemble a coalition out of anyone they can and bankroll efforts to dismantle this Greater Germany until either they went under, or it did, just as they had gone through seven coalitions to crush France's continent-dominating aspirations. Speaking of which, France isn't suicidal enough to start a fight with a unified Greater Germany on its lonesome even under Napoleon III, so ironically you'd have a surviving Second French Empire with Alsace-Lorraine becoming probably the other main partner in such a coalition with Britain in a hurry.

Thus you'd probably still get WW1 sometime in your early 20th century, with Britain + France leading one side and Großdeutschland leading the other. What the alliances look like is still up in the air, though. If Greater Germany has antagonized Russia, this alt-Entente has more or less the same chance the real one did. If Russia's on the German team (which would probably take this Greater Germany being as friendly to Pan-Slavism as it is to Pan-Germanism), then the alt-Entente had instead best pray the Americans elect a Wilson or FDR-tier '''''neutral''''' who's so friendly to them that he will wade into the fray even if American public opinion strongly opposes getting involved (and ideally a lot faster than they did in their respective world wars), otherwise I can't see how they're going to last past the first Christmas. (Ironically, TR might do, since he was gung-ho about attacking Germany IRL after the sinking of the RMS Lusitania. Just need him to never promise not to run again after 1904 and for a similar incident to happen in this timeline, I guess.)

Italy might also be pro-German depending on whether Großdeutschland gives them the Austrian territories they desired, though they aren't as important a factor as Russia. The reverse is true of the Ottomans, who I think would join the Entente (and indeed were traditionally a British ally) if Russia is pro-German, but again they aren't going to be as important.

The best possible outcome for Großdeutschland that I can think of, in which they manage to avoid a WW1 analogue entirely, is that they somehow strike a deal with the British to let them dominate the continent while giving Britain a completely free hand in maritime/colonial affairs, thereby securing a hopefully eternal or at least long-term peace between the two. But I'm not sure how feasible that would have been, Britain never liked the idea of a universal hegemon on the European continent, supposedly friendly or otherwise. And you don't even need a Wilhelm II-esque zero-charisma diplomatic disaster with lots of personal hangups to get antagonism toward such an arrangement going on the German side either - merely a leader who thinks 'wait, we're arguably the strongest country in Europe, who is Britain to tell us what we can't do?' (A notion that such a leader wouldn't even be unjustified to come up with, mind. Who in history has ever been satisfied with just being an implicit #2 when they really do have the power to seize moar of everything?)

Britain might not freak out too much because at this time they were still terrified of France. That said if you had this greater Germany allied with Russia which there is no reason for it not to be since Russia has everything in Europe it can realistically view as belonging to it then Britain has no path to victory. And remember Bismark would still be shaping a lot of the foreign policy here even for this thicc super Germany.

 

[Circle of Willis]

Britain might not freak out too much because at this time they were still terrified of France. That said if you had this greater Germany allied with Russia which there is no reason for it not to be since Russia has everything in Europe it can realistically view as belonging to it then Britain has no path to victory. And remember Bismark would still be shaping a lot of the foreign policy here even for this thicc super Germany.

I wouldn't be too sure of either of those things. A Greater Germany immediately outranks France in basically every threat factor, and not only was Napoleon III actually quite pro-British (he just bungled things toward the end with stuff like the Mexican intervention & Luxembourg affair, but overall seems to have been of the opinion that it would be a much better idea to be Britain's friend rather than its enemy - doubtless inspired by both his own time in Britain & knowing what happened to his uncle) but his heir, Napoleon IV, was seriously considered as a suitor to Queen Victoria's youngest & favorite daughter Beatrice. In a timeline where France wisely avoids fighting Germany alone and the Prince-Imperial doesn't get randomly killed by Zulus, it's really not hard to imagine a Franco-British rapproachment against Greater Germany - they already set aside their traditional rivalry to fight together against Russia historically in the Crimean War.

On the second, I don't necessarily see a German-Russian alliance lasting forever, even if Germany gives Russia a free hand in the Balkans for whatever reason. At some point their interests are likely to collide, with the Russians' claim to pan-Slavic leadership being good enough reason for them to take aim at the German-held parts of Poland and Croatia/Slovenia. On the German end, the concept of drang nach osten was already around well before the Nazis and hardly foreign to the sensibilities of 19th/early 20th century German nationalists. If they've subdued all enemies to the west & south, why not go east next, and reclaim at least the old Teutonic/Livonian Order territories in the Baltics?

And then there'll be Britain on the sidelines, eager to fan the flames and ally with the Russians (especially if these Russians have gotten an extra decade or two to fully industrialize & modernize, a nightmare scenario for the German Empire of our reality and sure to be one for Greater Germany too if they ever turn against each other) to bring down the Germans a peg or twenty the instant an opportunity presents itself. I can't really see even Greater Germany having the ability to cripple Britain the way it might France even if an alt-WW1 happens and it wins, so in that case, all Britain needs to do to get another chance to realize its geopolitical aims is persist & wait for the contradictions within the Russo-German camp to explode, which will probably happen at some point - the old continent's only big enough for one hegemon, and all that. It did the same through multiple defeats at Napoleon's hands after all, and still came out on top at the end.

 

[Carrot of Truth]

I wouldn't be too sure of either of those things. A Greater Germany immediately outranks France in basically every threat factor, and not only was Napoleon III actually quite pro-British (he just bungled things toward the end with stuff like the Mexican intervention & Luxembourg affair, but overall seems to have been of the opinion that it would be a much better idea to be Britain's friend rather than its enemy - doubtless inspired by both his own time in Britain & knowing what happened to his uncle) but his heir, Napoleon IV, was seriously considered as a suitor to Queen Victoria's youngest & favorite daughter Beatrice. In a timeline where France wisely avoids fighting Germany alone and the Prince-Imperial doesn't get randomly killed by Zulus, it's really not hard to imagine a Franco-British rapproachment against Greater Germany - they already set aside their traditional rivalry to fight together against Russia historically in the Crimean War.

On the second, I don't necessarily see a German-Russian alliance lasting forever, even if Germany gives Russia a free hand in the Balkans for whatever reason. At some point their interests are likely to collide, with the Russians' claim to pan-Slavic leadership being good enough reason for them to take aim at the German-held parts of Poland and Croatia/Slovenia. On the German end, the concept of drang nach osten was already around well before the Nazis and hardly foreign to the sensibilities of 19th/early 20th century German nationalists. If they've subdued all enemies to the west & south, why not go east next, and reclaim at least the old Teutonic/Livonian Order territories in the Baltics?

And then there'll be Britain on the sidelines, eager to fan the flames and ally with the Russians (especially if these Russians have gotten an extra decade or two to fully industrialize & modernize, a nightmare scenario for the German Empire of our reality and sure to be one for Greater Germany too if they ever turn against each other) to bring down the Germans a peg or twenty the instant an opportunity presents itself. I can't really see even Greater Germany having the ability to cripple Britain the way it might France even if an alt-WW1 happens and it wins, so in that case, all Britain needs to do to get another chance to realize its geopolitical aims is persist & wait for the contradictions within the Russo-German camp to explode, which will probably happen at some point - the old continent's only big enough for one hegemon, and all that. It did the same through multiple defeats at Napoleon's hands after all, and still came out on top at the end.

As long as the British Empire exists the alliance can last, Gotta Remember in this era the British Empire was the super power with no equals. If France aligns with them then that just further reinforces their alliance just due to how mush landmass their opposition controls.

 

[ATP]

Here is the thing this has already happened in 1848 here, If Germany wages war against Russia they will free a Polish kingdom under their influence. I wanna ignore the how this happened for the most part so we can get on with what happens next.

That is problem - they need to win not one war,but four -
1.Against Habsburgs
2.Against Russia
3.Against France
4.Against german states who want be free,not ruled by prussians,like Bavaria.In OTL they fought in 1866 against Hohenzollern.
Remember,that such thing like german nation was created after 1870 by prussian teachers who made german children belive that they are one nation.

But,that is problem - to made german children belive that they belong to one nation,you must first defeat their fathers on battlefield.

So,unless you gave Prussia ,let say,1900 technology,they would lost.

 

[Circle of Willis]

As long as the British Empire exists the alliance can last, Gotta Remember in this era the British Empire was the super power with no equals. If France aligns with them then that just further reinforces their alliance just due to how mush landmass their opposition controls.

I was talking about a situation post-alt-WW1 where the German-Russian bloc has won (the almost certain outcome of such a fight IMO, and one that they'll probably reach pretty quickly) due to the insane power disparity between their alliance (esp. if Italy is involved too) and France, which will have to do most of the fighting on land for the *Entente. (Of course, the Royal Navy being the Royal Navy, their chances of crushing the UK to the point of being able to cripple it are a lot slimmer vs. their chance of doing the same with France, maybe even nonexistent.) Only way to prevent that I can think of, as I said, is either Russia turning against Germany first (in which case you just have OTL WW1 more or less) or America being ready to jump into the fray really early on, which is considerably easier said than done.

But, at that point the Russians and Germans go from being allies to natural competitors, since there will frankly be nobody left on the European mainland that can contest their supremacy...except each other. And wouldn't you know it, they do have competing interests in various places along their shared borders. Britain may not be able to make a direct dent against either on land, but what they can and almost certainly will do is play the two against each other, initially strongly favoring Russia over Greater Germany since the latter will seem the more immediate threat (certainly they won't want Russia to completely crush Germany and reign supreme either, just like they didn't approve of the maximally punitive plans France had for Germany after the real WW1, but they'll figure out how to prevent that outcome later since it won't be as high a priority as stopping a Greater Germany that has comprehensively beaten & castrated France).

 

[Buba]

In 1913 such a state would have the OTL German Empire population plus c.9M Germans, 6,5M Czechs and c.1,5M Slovenes (and an irrelevant several hundred thousand Italians). All in all an increase of c.20M. Plus half of A-H's economy - not far from equalling combined UK+FRench GDP (without Empires both).
86M people and GDP of 340 Billion 1990 USD (UK - 40/225, France - 40/130, USA - 100/500, Russia - 180/270)
Being BFF with Sankt Peterburg? Possible, but not unevitable, if the GD inherts the Balkan Feud from the Habsburgs. But if GD and Russia agree on pushing the New World Order, the Great Reset, then they could indeed be frends (like Stalin and Hitler in 39-41, for the same reasons).