If you told a German from May 1914 that 25+ years later, Germany would defeat France in a World War while failing to knock out Russia,what'd they say?

[WolfBear]

If you told a German from May 1914 that 25+ years later, Germany would defeat France in a World War while failing to knock out Russia,what'd they say? FWIW, you wouldn't actually tell them about the World War that was going to occur within the next five years, only about the World War that was going to occur 25+ year down the line. You'd also tell them that Russia would have experienced a regime change in the meantime, lost some of its peripheral territories, and made a deal with Germany for neutrality in a Germano-French war in 1939-1940 in exchange for German support for getting some of these peripheral territories back. You'd also point out that after Germany will quickly defeat France in 1940 (a la Schlieffen, only 25+ years later!), Germany will stab Russia in the back by launching a surprise attack on it and make extremely massive progress, advancing nearly up to both Moscow and St. Petersburg, after which point the Russians will successfully push the Germans back all of the way to Berlin with Anglo-American help, with the Anglo-Americans also successfully recreating the Western Front in France through a successful amphibious invasion in Normandy a couple of years after the failure of the Germans' Russian offensive (and with the Germano-Russian war still being ongoing). You'll then proceed to mention how the war ends with Russian troops in Berlin and with all of Germany being occupied because Germany's leadership was too foolish and stubborn to call it quits earlier and was also willing to aggressively shoot, execute, and fire anyone who was even remotely suspected of defeatism.

Anyway, how exactly would a German from May 1914 have reacted to all of this? You'd basically tell them what exactly was going to happen in WWII in our TL 25+ years later, but not say anything about WWI, about the specific kind/type of regime change that Russia experienced in the meantime, or about the Holocaust and about Germany's various anti-Semitic measures beforehand, such as the Nuremberg Laws, Kristallnacht, and the forced ghettoization and categorical dehumanization of European Jewry.

Thoughts?

 

[sillygoose]

They'd probably say that sounds about right. Remember before WW1 the French had been defeated relatively easily in 1870-71 while Russia was looking like a Steamroller by 1914. It was only after WW1 that the views of France and Russia flipped with France being seen as the major threat due to having won WW1. Plus the Schleiffen Plan was predicated on being able to defeat France quickly to free up the army for the life or death struggle against the Russian Steamroller, so it seems that even the generals considered Russia the bigger threat and France a relative pushover.

 

[WolfBear]

They'd probably say that sounds about right. Remember before WW1 the French had been defeated relatively easily in 1870-71 while Russia was looking like a Steamroller by 1914. It was only after WW1 that the views of France and Russia flipped with France being seen as the major threat due to having won WW1. Plus the Schleiffen Plan was predicated on being able to defeat France quickly to free up the army for the life or death struggle against the Russian Steamroller, so it seems that even the generals considered Russia the bigger threat and France a relative pushover.

Interestingly enough, France was only able to win WWI due to Britain and the US--and of course Italy and Russia helping in the East. At the start of WWII, France had to fight Germany again, but with only Britain (and Belgium) at its side and the US, Italy, and Russia all remaining neutral.

 

[bintananth]

Interestingly enough, France was only able to win WWI due to Britain and the US--and of course Italy and Russia helping in the East. At the start of WWII, France had to fight Germany again, but with only Britain (and Belgium) at its side and the US, Italy, and Russia all remaining neutral.

In 1914 France, Britain, and Belgium halted the German advance. The US was neutral until 1917 and Italy didn't join the fray until after the Western Front turned into a quagmire of trench lines.

The East and Balkans were much more fluid in 1914.

 

[WolfBear]

In 1914 France, Britain, and Belgium halted the German advance. The US was neutral until 1917 and Italy didn't join the fray until after the Western Front turned into a quagmire of trench lines.

The East and Balkans were much more fluid in 1914.

Yes, but France still relied on a strong and steady Russian hand in the East in 1914 and the US + Italy (especially the US) compensated France for Russia's exit from the war in 1917-1918.