article posted in two parts because of number of media links (part one)
Bassoe
Well-known member
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Above, Nero fiddles while Rome burns. We in the West are led by a claque of Neros.
Look, I don't like that Russia invaded Ukraine, and I don't like that they are succeeding in their aggression. But they have won this thing. Why? Because the West cannot afford to continue this proxy war with Moscow. Item:
The other day, a major energy supplier in Vienna announced that it is facing the prospect of bankruptcy over losses on energy futures. And now, here in late August, another European gas monolith teeters:
In Poland, homeowners are lined up in their cars for days, hoping to buy enough coal to last the winter. Excerpt:
Yesterday in Rome, I talked to a couple of Poles who are terrified of the coming winter. If you are Polish and have the possibility of burning firewood, you are stocking up on it. But very many Poles do not. Nor can they burn coal in their flats for heat. What are they going to do? They're not sure.Artur's household is one of the nearly 4 million in Poland that rely on coal for heating (granted, these households are probably in better shape than the ones relying on nat gas whose price is rising by 10-20% every day and is now almost literally in the stratosphere) and now face shortages and price hikes, after Poland and the European Union imposed an embargo on Russian coal following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February. Poland banned purchases with an immediate effect in April, while the bloc mandated fading them out by August.
While Poland produces over 50 million tonnes from its own mines every year, imported coal, much of it from Russia, is a household staple because of competitive prices and the fact that Russian coal is sold in lumps more suitable for home use.
Soaring demand has forced Bogdanka and other state-controlled mines to ration sales or offer the fuel to individual buyers via online platforms, in limited amounts. Artur, who did not want to give his full name, said he had collected paperwork from his extended family in the hope of picking up all their fuel allocations at once.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Russia is rolling in cash from selling oil and gas in this current market. David "Spengler" Goldman states the obvious -- which is by no means obvious to European and American leaders, but which is already becoming painfully clear to ordinary Europeans:
As rich as the West is, it can't keep its people warm in the winter by burning cash. And so, European households are now being forced to ask if freezing in the dark for Ukraine is something they really want to do. This is not going to happen to Americans -- but you should think about how you would react if this were you, and your elderly parents, and your kids. Yes, Putin is an SOB, but this is the real world.
Meanwhile, in today's Wall Street Journal:
It might be worth it if we stood a chance of prevailing against the Russians. But we don't. They are fighting on what they believe is their own territory. Russia's a big country, and it's making a ton of money selling gas and oil in this distorted market created by Western sanctions. It by no means insults Ukrainian valor, which is considerable, to point out that they simply do not have the resources to prevail.The war in Ukraine has depleted American stocks of some types of ammunition and the Pentagon has been slow to replenish its arsenal, sparking concerns among U.S. officials that American military readiness could be jeopardized by the shortage.
Let's look at Iraq, where the Green Zone was overrun by supporters of Muqtada al-Sadr, the radical Shiite cleric:
"Democracy! Whiskey! Sexy!" 'Memba that? I do. George W. Bush and his government led the United States into this catastrophe. We spent blood and vast sums of treasure for this. Because see, we are America, we are the West, and as Karl Rove told the New York Times on background back in 2004, "We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality."
The Taliban would like to say something about that. Somebody call them at government HQ in Kabul. Muqtada al-Sadr would like to add to the conversation. And above all, Russia would like to comment.
Never, ever forget who has caused these catastrophes: the ruling class of most Western countries (Hungary is a notable exception). It was the United States leadership -- primarily the Republicans, but most Democrats went along -- that led us into the humiliating defeats in Afghanistan and Iraq. (I don't have any time for Republican partisans today who blame Biden for the shitshow of Afghanistan; I'm happy to give him grief, but we can't forget that Afghanistan was unwinnable, if by "winnable" we mean establishing a stable liberal democracy.) It is the Biden Administration, aided by Republicans in the Senate, that has been pouring money and weaponry into Ukraine, and it is the US political leadership, as well as the European Union leadership, that has pressed this catastrophic policy of energy sanctions on Russia -- a policy that is now going to immiserate Europeans this winter, and destroy their economies.
I can't stress this strongly enough to American readers: this is really happening in Europe. What if you were facing the winter with the prospect of rolling blackouts, not knowing if you will be able to heat your home or cook your food? What if you were facing the prospect of economic collapse taking your job away? What if your small business -- or the factory where you work -- is going to have to close because it can't afford energy? That's happening here in Europe. It's not wild speculation: this is a reality bearing down on Europe like a freight train.
None of it justifies what Vladimir Putin has done and is doing in Ukraine. But it does reveal, and reveal in a very harsh way, the limits of Western idealism and wishful thinking.