What if the Dutch returned to South Africa by making the Natalia Boer Republic a protectorate in 1840s?

[raharris1973]

What if in 1842, the Dutch Empire accepted a protectorate over the Boer Republic of Natalia?

After the Napoleonic Wars, the British annexed the former Dutch Cape Colony into their empire. As a result, during the 1830s, the Boers, descendants of Dutch colonists who where unhappy with the British, leaved the Cape Colony, and were going to the east. This is called the Great Trek.

In 1839, some of this Boers established the Boer Republic of Natalia, in which is now KwaZoeloe-Natal.

However, in the beginning, the British accepted Natalia. But in 1842, they marched to Natalia. However, prior to this, and anticipating it, the Republic offered the Dutch king William II to become a colony of the Netherlands. But William II refused this.

What if…
But what if in an alternate timeline, William II accepted Natalia’s offer (or, if you want a real POD, let’s assume that William I stays in power until his death in 1843, and hé accepts the offer). This would lead to the return of the Netherlands in South Africa after 1806, when they lost the Dutch Cape Colony.

So, what do you think what would have happened?

Would the Netherlands be able to be tied additional Boer Republics inland? Would Britain escalate this issue to war an ultimatum threatening war anytime sooner or later? If not, how does Natal develop differently with a Boer population and government, and any separate Boer inland republics having access to a non-British controlled port? Would they Dutch play any larger role in southern Africa or any other part of Africa by alliance or direct colonization?

 

[raharris1973]

I would note that the Natalia Republic as a Dutch protectorate would have a fairly recent population of Trekboers, recently migrated from the British Cape Colony, as well as native Bantu Africans, probably largely Xhosa and with some Zulu. The Republic and its Dutch protectors would have to deal with strong neighbors like the British Empire and its Cape Colony to the west, and the strong Zulu kingdom to the east. Further east of that would be Portuguese Mozambique. Northwest of Natalia would be Basutoland. The Boer Orange and Transvaal Republic hadn't been started yet, and were home predominantly to Bantus at this time, but the Boers of Natalia, and indirectly, the Dutch protectors, have an opportunity to expand here, and at a minimum, for as long as the Natalia-Netherlands protectorate relationship lasts, unlike in OTL, any independent Boer states are not in a position where they are completely surrounded by the British (or natives) as neighbors, which would alter later power dynamics in the Southern Africa region.

 

[Skallagrim]

I don't think the British would be particularly keen to declare war on the Dutch. Sure, there would be, ah... interested parties... who'd want expansion into the inland regions of Southern Africa. And in OTL, they got their way and Boers got screwed. But if the Dutch are right there, legitimately, without having provoked the British in any way (since this whole development precedes the British actually "making their move")... well, I think the British would opt out of a conflict. Not because they couldn't win, but because they didn't want to start a war like that. This is before the mid-century revolutions, the Post-Napoleonic order is holding, and the Napoleonic Wars (where the British and Dutch fought together) are still fresh in the memory.

The main thinking would be that if the Dutch provide a colony for the Boers to flock to, then that solves the "Boer problem" in the Cape, and that's a net positive, isn't it? The Cape becomes indisputably British. (And the discovery of large depositis of diamonds and gold and other fun stuff in the OTL Boer Republics only really started in the 1860s in OTL, so that's not a concrete motivator yet. In the 1840s, the major confirmed gold deposits are in the Cape Colony.)

So, results. I'd say this means that more Boers move to Natalia than in OTL of their own volition, because Dutch protection mkes it more of a sure bet. Meanwhile, the British will actively try to drive out the rest, so they mostly end up leaving, too. The Dutch, to fortify their position, will introduce a military presence, and some ATL settlers may well show up to try their luck.

This has the interesting consequence that the term "Boers" never really gains currency, nor even "Afrikaners". The inhabiants of Natalia will probably remain known by the older Dutch term for the settlers: "Afrikaanders". Linguistically, Afrikaans is probably going to end up being a bit closer to Dutch, due to greater interaction, additional Dutch settlers, and generally more cultural influence from the Netherlands.

I think that many Afrikaanders will soon trek inland, founding new settlements much akin to the initial drive that led to the inland Boer Republics in OTL. The Dutch government will encourage this, to maximise the territory over which they hold sway. The British will also notice it, of course, and will move to push the boundaries of the Cape Colony outwards. Geography means that the Afrikaanders from Natalia have a mountain range to cross, while a British push to the East will be easier (for the same reason the Great Trek was possible in OTL). However, I think quite a few Afrikaanders expelled from the Cap will already have followed the settlement patters of the Great Trek right from the ATL 1840s, so they may have a leg up, there.

My analysis would be that Natalia and the other "Afrikaander outposts" will come to control substantial areas of Eastern South Africa, whereas the British Cape Colony will grab as much as it can.I see the British getting OTL Bloemfontein and environs, whereas the Afrikaanders get Johannesburg/Pretoria and those areas.

The Afrikaanders will be facing a lot of challenges (e.g. the Zulus), and wll probably have to make a land deal with the Portuguese to ensure their co-operation. This will secure the Eastern border for the Afrikaanders. I think the final map would look something like this: